Scientific and practical tools for dealing with water resource estimations for the future
Other literature type
Hughes, D. A.
Future flow regimes will be different to today and imperfect knowledge of
present and future climate variations, rainfall–runoff processes and
anthropogenic impacts make them highly uncertain. Future water resources
decisions will rely on practical and appropriate simulation tools that are
sensitive to changes, can assimilate different types of change information
and flexible enough to accommodate improvements in understanding of change.
They need to include representations of uncertainty and generate information
appropriate for uncertain decision-making. This paper presents some examples
of the tools that have been developed to address these issues in the
southern Africa region. The examples include uncertainty in present day
simulations due to lack of understanding and data, using climate change
projection data from multiple climate models and future catchment responses
due to both climate and development effects. The conclusions are that the
tools and models are largely available and what we need is more reliable
forcing and model evlaution information as well as methods of making
decisions with such inevitably uncertain information.