Dynamics and forecasting of population growth and urban expansion in Srinagar City – A Geospatial Approach
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The urban areas of developing countries are densely populated and need the use of sophisticated monitoring systems, such as remote
sensing and geographical information systems (GIS). The urban sprawl of a city is best understood by studying the dynamics of
LULC change which can be easily generated by using sequential satellite images, required for the prediction of urban growth.
Multivariate statistical techniques and regression models have been used to establish the relationship between the urban growth and
its causative factors and for forecast of the population growth and urban expansion. In Srinagar city, one of the fastest growing
metropolitan cities situated in Jammu and Kashmir State of India, sprawl is taking its toll on the natural resources at an alarming
pace. The present study was carried over a period of 40 years (1971–2011), to understand the dynamics of spatial and temporal
variability of urban sprawl. The results reveal that built-up area has increased by 585.08 % while as the population has increased by
214.75 %. The forecast showed an increase of 246.84 km<sup>2</sup> in built-up area which exceeds the overall carrying capacity of the city.
The most common conversions were also evaluated.