Geo-information Based Spatio-temporal Modeling of Urban Land Use and Land Cover Change in Butwal Municipality, Nepal
Other literature type
Mandal, U. K.
Unscientific utilization of land use and land cover due to rapid growth of urban population deteriorates urban condition. Urban
growth, land use change and future urban land demand are key concerns of urban planners. This paper is aimed to model urban land
use change essential for sustainable urban development. GI science technology was employed to study the urban change dynamics
using Markov Chain and CA-Markov and predicted the magnitude and spatial pattern. It was performed using the probability
transition matrix from the Markov chain process, the suitability map of each land use/cover types and the contiguity filter. Suitability
maps were generated from the MCE process where weight was derived from the pair wise comparison in the AHP process
considering slope, land capability, distance to road, and settlement and water bodies as criterion of factor maps. Thematic land use
land cover types of 1999, 2006, and 2013 of Landsat sensors were classified using MLC algorithm. The spatial extent increase from
1999 to 2013 in built up , bush and forest was observed to be 48.30 percent,79.48 percent and 7.79 percent, respectively, while
decrease in agriculture and water bodies were 30.26 percent and 28.22 percent. The predicted urban LULC for 2020 and 2027
would provide useful inputs to the decision makers. Built up and bush expansion are explored as the main driving force for loss of
agriculture and river areas and has the potential to continue in future also. The abandoned area of river bed has been converted to
built- up areas.