A method to determine the theoretical maximum error growth in atmospheric models

Article English OPEN
Urban, Bernard (2011)
  • Publisher: Co-Action Publishing
  • Journal: Tellus A (issn: 1600-0870, eissn: 0280-6495)
  • Related identifiers: doi: 10.3402/tellusa.v45i4.14891
  • Subject:
    arxiv: Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics

For a fixed forecast range and initial state of an atmospheric model, we present a practical method to determine the error of this initial state which maximizes the ratio of final to initial error. The method uses the adjoint model concept. Numerical results for a simple barotropic model are given. We show on a sample of real cases that. there is a negative correlation between the above ratio and a least square forecast skill. We discuss this result and the use of the method for a priori estimation of the quality of numerical forecasts.DOI: 10.1034/j.1600-0870.1993.t01-3-00002.x
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