Contributions of carbon cycle uncertainty to future climate projection spread

Article English OPEN
Huntingford, C. ; Lowe, J. A. ; Booth, B. B. B. ; Jones, C. D. ; Harris, G. R. ; Gohar, L. K. ; Meir, P. (2011)

We have characterized the relative contributions to uncertainty in predictions of global warming amount by year 2100 in the C4MIP model ensemble (Friedlingstein et al., 2006) due to both carbon cycle process uncertainty and uncertainty in the physical climate properties of the Earth system. We find carbon cycle uncertainty to be important. On average the spread in transient climate response is around 40% of that due to the more frequently debated uncertainties in equilibrium climate sensitivity and global heat capacity. This result is derived by characterizing the influence of different parameters in a global climate-carbon cycle ‘box’ model that has been calibrated against the 11 General Circulation models (GCMs) and Earth system Models of Intermediate Complexity (EMICs) in the C4MIP ensemble; a collection of current state-of-the-art climate models that include an explicit representation of the global carbon cycle.DOI: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2009.00414.x
  • References (19)
    19 references, page 1 of 2

    Andrews, D. G. and Allen, M. R. 2008. Diagnosis of climate models in terms of transient climate response and feedback response time. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 9, 7-12.

    Cox, P. M., Betts, R. A., Jones, C. D., Spall, S. A. and Totterdell, I. J. 2000. Acceleration of global warming due to carbon-cycle feedbacks in a coupled climate model. Nature 408, 184-187.

    Cubasch, U., Meehl, G. A., Boer, G. J., Stouffer, R. J., Dix, M. and co-authors. 2001. Projections of future climate change. In: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution to Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, and co-editors). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881pp.

    Forest, C. E., Allen, M. R., Stone, P. H. and Sokolov, A. P. 2000. Constraining uncertainties in climate models using climate change detection techniques. Geophys. Res. Lett. 27, 569-572.

    Forest, C. E., Stone, P. H., Sokolov, A. P., Allen, M. R. and Webster, M. D. 2002. Quantifying uncertainties in climate system properties with the use of recent climate observations. Science 295, 113-117.

    Frame, D. J., Booth, B. B. B., Kettleborough, J. A., Stainforth, D. A., Gregory, J. M. and co-authors. 2005. Constraining climate forecasts: the role of prior assumptions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L09702.

    Friedlingstein, P., Cox, P., Betts, R., Bopp, L., Von Bloh, W. and coauthors. 2006. Climate-carbon cycle feedback analysis: results from the (CMIP)-M-4 model intercomparison. J. Clim. 19(14), 3337- 3353.

    Gregory, J. M., Stouffer, R. J., Raper, S. C. B., Stott, P. A. and Rayner, N. A. 2002. An observationally based estimate of the climate sensitivity. J. Clim. 15, 3117-3121.

    IPCC 2001. Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (eds. J. T. Houghton, Y. Ding, D. J. Griggs, M. Noguer, P. J. van der Linden, and co-editors). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, 881pp.

    Jones, C. D., Cox, P. M. and Huntingford, C. 2006. Climate-carbon cycle feedbacks under stabilization: uncertainty and observational constraints. Tellus 58B, 603-613.

  • Similar Research Results (3)
  • Metrics
    No metrics available
Share - Bookmark