Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Hydrology and Earth ...arrow_drop_down
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
versions View all 2 versions
addClaim

This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.

You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.
addClaim

This Research product is the result of merged Research products in OpenAIRE.

You have already added 0 works in your ORCID record related to the merged Research product.

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

Authors: Blauhut, Veit; Stahl, Kerstin; Stagge, James Howard; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stefano, Lucia; Vogt, Jürgen;

Estimating drought risk across Europe from reported drought impacts, drought indices, and vulnerability factors

Abstract

Drought is one of the most costly natural hazards in Europe. Due to its complexity, drought risk, the combination of the natural hazard and societal vulnerability, is difficult to define and challenging to detect and predict, as the impacts of drought are very diverse, covering the breadth of socioeconomic and environmental systems. Pan- European maps of drought risk could inform the elaboration of guidelines and policies to address its documented severity and impact across borders. This work (1) tests the capability of commonly applied hazard indicators and vulnerability factors to predict annual drought impact occurrence for different sectors and macro regions in Europe and (2) combines information on past drought impacts, drought hazard indicators, and vulnerability factors into estimates of drought risk at the pan-European scale. This “hybrid approach” bridges the gap between traditional vulnerability assessment and probabilistic impact forecast in a statistical modelling framework. Multivariable logistic regression was applied to predict the likelihood of impact occurrence on an annual basis for particular impact categories and European macro regions. The results indicate sector and macro region specific sensitivities of hazard indicators, with the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index for a twelve month aggregation period (SPEI-12) as the overall best hazard predictor. Vulnerability factors have only limited ability to predict drought impacts as single predictor, with information about land use and water resources as best vulnerability-based predictors. (3) The application of the “hybrid approach” revealed strong regional (NUTS combo level) and sector specific differences in drought risk across Europe. The majority of best predictor combinations rely on a combination of SPEI for shorter and longer aggregation periods, and a combination of information on land use and water resources. The added value of integrating regional vulnerability information with drought risk prediction could be proven. Thus, the study contributes to the overall understanding of drivers of drought impacts, current practice of drought indicators selection for specific application, and drought risk assessment.

JRC.E.1-Disaster Risk Management

102 references, page 1 of 11

Adepetu, A. and Berthe, A.: Vulnerability of Rural Sahelian Households to Drought: Options for Adaptation, A Final Report Submitted to Assessments of Impacts and Adaptations to Climate Change (AIACC), Project No. AF 92, The International START Secretariat, Washington, USA, 2007.

Aggett, G.: A Multi-sector Drought Vulnerability Assessment for the State of Colorado, Vol. 15, EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts, Vienna, Austria, p. 13395, 2013.

Ahmed, N. and Elagib, N. A.: Development and application of a drought risk index for food crop yield in Eastern Sahel, Ecol. Indic., 43, 114-125, doi:10.1016/j.ecolind.2014.02.033, 2014.

Amelung, B. and Moreno, A.: Impacts of climate change in tourism in Europe, PESETA-Tourism study, JRC Scientific and Technical Reports, JRC, Seville, doi:10.2791/3418, 2009. [OpenAIRE]

Amoako, P. Y. O., Asamoah, K. A., Mantey, P. P., Ametefe, V. W., Addabor, V. O., and Agbleze, K.: Flood and Drought Risk Mapping in Ghana, Five African Adaptation Program Pilot Districts, Final Report, Forestry Consulting Unit, Kumasi, Japan, 2012.

Bachmair, S., Kohn, I., and Stahl, K.: Exploring the link between drought indicators and impacts, Nat. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 15, 1381-1397, doi:10.5194/nhess-15-1381-2015, 2015. [OpenAIRE]

Bachmair, S., Svensson, C., Hannaford, J., Barker, L. J., and Stahl, K.: A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 20, 2589-2609, doi:10.5194/hess-20-2589-2016, 2016. [OpenAIRE]

Beguería, S., Vicente-Serrano, S. M., and Angulo-Martínez, M.: A Multiscalar Global Drought Dataset: The SPEIbase: A New Gridded Product for the Analysis of Drought Variability and Impacts, B. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 91, 1351-1356, doi:10.1175/2010bams2988.1, 2010.

Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreño, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S., Kienberger, S., Keiler, M., Alexander, D., Zeil, P., and Welle, T.: Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: the MOVE framework, Nat. Hazards, 67, 193-211, doi:10.1007/s11069-013-0558-5, 2013.

Blauhut, V. and Stahl, K.: Mapping drought risk in Europe, Drought R & SPI, Technical Report no. 27, http://www.eu-drought.org/ technicalreports, last access: 1 July 2015.

  • BIP!
    Impact byBIP!
    citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
  • citations
    This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    0
    popularity
    This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    influence
    This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
    Average
    impulse
    This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
    Average
    Powered byBIP!BIP!
Powered by OpenAIRE graph
Found an issue? Give us feedback
citations
This is an alternative to the "Influence" indicator, which also reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Citations provided by BIP!
popularity
This indicator reflects the "current" impact/attention (the "hype") of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Popularity provided by BIP!
influence
This indicator reflects the overall/total impact of an article in the research community at large, based on the underlying citation network (diachronically).
BIP!Influence provided by BIP!
impulse
This indicator reflects the initial momentum of an article directly after its publication, based on the underlying citation network.
BIP!Impulse provided by BIP!
0
Average
Average
Average
Funded by
EC| DROUGHT-R&SPI
Project
DROUGHT-R&SPI
Fostering European Drought Research and Science-Policy Interfacing
  • Funder: European Commission (EC)
  • Project Code: 282769
  • Funding stream: FP7 | SP1 | ENV
moresidebar

Do the share buttons not appear? Please make sure, any blocking addon is disabled, and then reload the page.