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  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    H. Seroussi; S. Nowicki; A. J. Payne; H. Goelzer; H. Goelzer; W. H. Lipscomb; A. Abe-Ouchi; C. Agosta; T. Albrecht; X. Asay-Davis; +44 more
    Countries: Belgium, Belgium, Netherlands, France, France, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, Germany, Germany
    Project: AKA | The impact of Antarctic I... (322430), ARC | Special Research Initiati... (SR140300001), NSF | The Management and Operat... (1852977), EC | TiPACCs (820575), NWO | Perturbations of System E... (2300181601), ANR | TROIS-AS (ANR-15-CE01-0005), NSF | NSF-NERC: PROcesses, driv... (1739031), EC | ERA-PLANET (689443), AKA | Simulating Antarctic mari... (286587)

    Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution inresponse to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute tofuture sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future massbalance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physicalprocesses, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presentsresults from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolutionof the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet ModelIntercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from theCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climatemodel results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in responseto increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent(SLE) under Representative ConcentrationPathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment withconstant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution underclimate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of theWest Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighingthe increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelfcollapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface ofice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without iceshelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, thecalibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavitiesand the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario basedon two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared tosimulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and displaylimited mass gain in East Antarctica. info:eu-repo/semantics/published

  • Authors: 
    Ralf Greve; Christopher Chambers; Reinhard Calov; Takashi Obase; Fuyuki Saito; Kaho Harada; Ayako Abe-Ouchi;
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH

    <p>The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is a major international climate modelling initiative. As part of it, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets until the year 2100. This was achieved by defining a set of future climate scenarios by evaluating results of CMIP5 and CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs, including MIROC) over and surrounding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. These scenarios were used as forcings for a variety of ice-sheet models operated by different working groups worldwide (Goelzer et al. 2020, doi: 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020; Seroussi et al. 2020, doi: 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020).</p><p>Here, we use the model SICOPOLIS to carry out extended versions of the ISMIP6 future climate experiments for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets until the year 3000. For the atmospheric forcing (anomalies of surface mass balance and temperature) beyond 2100, we sample randomly the ten-year interval 2091-2100, while the oceanic forcing beyond 2100 is kept fixed at 2100 conditions. We conduct experiments for the pessimistic, "business as usual" pathway RCP8.5 (CMIP5) / SSP5-8.5 (CMIP6), and for the optimistic RCP2.6 (CMIP5) / SSP1-2.6 (CMIP6) pathway that represents substantial emissions reductions. For the unforced, constant-climate control runs, both ice sheets are stable until the year 3000. For RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, they suffer massive mass losses: For Greenland, ~1.7 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the 12-experiment mean, and ~3.5 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. For Antarctica, ~3.3 m SLE for the 14-experiment mean, and ~5.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. For RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the mass losses are limited to a two-experiment mean of ~0.26 m SLE for Greenland, and a three-experiment mean of ~0.25 m SLE for Antarctica. Climate-change mitigation during the next decades will therefore be an efficient means for limiting the contribution of the ice sheets to sea-level rise in the long term.</p>

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Seroussi, Helene; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Anthony P.; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William L.; Abe Ouchi, Ayako; Agosta, Cecile; Albrecht, Torsten; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Barthel, Alice; +37 more
    Publisher: Zenodo

    This archive provides the ice sheet model outputs produced as part of the publication "ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century", published in The Cryosphere, https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/ Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. Contact: Helene Seroussi, Helene.seroussi@jpl.nasa.gov Further information on ISMIP6 and ISMIP6 Antarctica Projections can be found here: http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/activities/targeted/ismip6 http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/wiki/index.php?title=ISMIP6-Projections-Antarctica Users should cite the original publication when using all or part of the data. In order to document CMIP6’s scientific impact and enable ongoing support of CMIP, users are also obligated to acknowledge CMIP6, ISMIP6 and the participating modeling groups. About the dataset: - The results are based on model output computed from the ISMIP6 native grids that vary between models. - The results are calculated over the ice-covered area of Antarctica, corrected for map projection errors, ice sheet model specific densities taken into account. - Results for the experiments 'exp*' are provided both as raw results and calculated as differences to the control experiment (ctrl_proj_open or ctrl_proj_std depending on the experiment). The later files are named with "minus_ctrl_proj" to indicate that the control run is substracted. - Results for ctrl_proj_open, ctrl_proj_std, hist_open and hist_std are not corrected to remove the control run. ------------------------------------------------ Directory structure: groupname1 modelname1 expid computed_iareafl_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_iareafl_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_iareagr_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_iareagr_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_icearea_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_icearea_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_ivol_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_ivol_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_ivaf_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_ivaf_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_smb_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_smb_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_smbgr_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_smbgr_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_bmbfl_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_bmbfl_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc ... ------------------------------------------------- Description of variables: icearea - ice area [m^2] iareafl - floating ice area [m^2] iareagr - grounded ice area [m^2] ivol - ice volume [m^3] ivaf - ice volume above floatation [m^3] smb - spatially integrated surface mass balance [kg/s] smbgr - spatially integrated surface mass balance over grounded ice [kg/s] bmbfl - spatially integrated basal melt rate under floating ice (negative for melting ice) [kg/s] Variables per file: rhoi - model specific ice density [kg m-3] rhow - model specific ocean water density [kg m-3] time - time, in years [variable] - global variable integrated over the Antarctica ice sheet [variable]_region_1 - variable integrated over West Antarctica [variable]_region_2 - variable integrated over East Antarctica [variable]_region_3 - variable integrated over the Antarctic Peninsula [variable]_sector_X - variable integrated over the X sector of the Antarctic ice sheet (18 sectors, from 1 to 18) -------------------------------------------------- Data usage notice: If you use any of these results, please acknowledge the work of the people involved in producing them. Acknowledgements should have language similar to the below. "We thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) effort, which provided support for ISMIP6 through sponsoring of workshops, hosting the ISMIP6 website and wiki, and promoted ISMIP6. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through it's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP5 and CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the CMIP data and providing access, the University at Buffalo for ISMIP6 data distribution and upload, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP5 and CMIP6 and ESGF. We thank the ISMIP6 steering committee, the ISMIP6 model selection group and ISMIP6 dataset preparation group for their continuous engagement in defining ISMIP6." You should also refer to and cite the following papers: Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020. {"references": ["Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033\u20133070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020.", "Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331\u20132368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020."]}

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Seroussi, Hélène; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Anthony J.; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Agosta, Cécile; Albrecht, Torsten; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Barthel, Alice; +37 more
    Publisher: Zenodo

    This archive provides the scripts and routines used as part of the publication "ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century", published in The Cryosphere, https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/ Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. Contact: Helene Seroussi, Helene.seroussi@jpl.nasa.gov Further information on ISMIP6 and ISMIP6 Antarctica Projections can be found here: http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/activities/targeted/ismip6 http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/wiki/index.php?title=ISMIP6-Projections-Antarctica Users should cite the original publication when using all or part of the data. In order to document CMIP6's scientific impact and enable ongoing support of CMIP, users are also obligated to acknowledge CMIP6, ISMIP6 and the participating modeling groups. Archive overview ----------------------------------------------- README.txt - this information figures_paper.m - Matlab script to reproduce figures in Seroussi et al. (2020) scalars_paper.m - Matlab script to compute scalars from two-dimensional fields submitted by ice sheet models specifics.m - Matlab script including parameters from ice flow models necessary but not included in the output files WriteNetCDFComputedOutputs.m - Matlab script to write NetCDF files of scalar outputs Data/ - Directory with datasets needed to compute scalars and reproduce figures Data/af2_el_ismip6_ant_01.nc - 1 km grid containing area distorsion Data/sectors_4km.nc - Antarctic regions and sectors at 4 km resolution Data/sectors_8km.nc - Antarctic regions and sectors at 8 km resolution Data/sectors_16km.nc - Antarctic regions and sectors at 16 km resolution Data/sectors_32km.nc - Antarctic regions and sectors at 32 km resolution Data/sectors_8km_iceonly.nc - Antarctic regions and sectors at 8 km resolution, present-day ice covered areas only Some additional files might be needed to reproduce the figures: distinguishable_colors - Matlab file to create colors for ice sheet models: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/29702-generate-maximally-perceptually-distinct-colors hatchfill2 - Matlab file to add hatches on collapsed ice shelves: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/mlc-downloads/downloads/submissions/53593/versions/10/previews/hatchfill2.m/index.html thickness_grid - ice thickness on 8 km standard ISMIP6 grid used to compare with modeled thickness, for example based on BedMachineAntarctica https://nsidc.org/data/NSIDC-0756 velocity_grid - ice velocity on 8 km standard ISMIP6 grid used to compare with modeled velocity, for example based on MEaSURE dataset: https://nsidc.org/data/NSIDC-0754/versions/1 ISMIP6 datasets regridded at 8 km to create 2d figures - these can be found on the ISMIP6 archive, please contact ismip6@gmail.com for instructions to get access ------------------------------------------------ Data usage notice: If you use any of these results, please acknowledge the work of the people involved in producing them. Acknowledgements should have language similar to the below. "We thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) effort, which provided support for ISMIP6 through sponsoring of workshops, hosting the ISMIP6 website and wiki, and promoted ISMIP6. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through it's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP5 and CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the CMIP data and providing access, the University at Buffalo for ISMIP6 data distribution and upload, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP5 and CMIP6 and ESGF. We thank the ISMIP6 steering committee, the ISMIP6 model selection group and ISMIP6 dataset preparation group for their continuous engagement in defining ISMIP6." You should also refer to and cite the following papers: Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020. {"references": ["Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033\u20133070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020.", "Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331\u20132368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020."]}

Include:
4 Research products, page 1 of 1
  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    H. Seroussi; S. Nowicki; A. J. Payne; H. Goelzer; H. Goelzer; W. H. Lipscomb; A. Abe-Ouchi; C. Agosta; T. Albrecht; X. Asay-Davis; +44 more
    Countries: Belgium, Belgium, Netherlands, France, France, United Kingdom, United Kingdom, Germany, Germany
    Project: AKA | The impact of Antarctic I... (322430), ARC | Special Research Initiati... (SR140300001), NSF | The Management and Operat... (1852977), EC | TiPACCs (820575), NWO | Perturbations of System E... (2300181601), ANR | TROIS-AS (ANR-15-CE01-0005), NSF | NSF-NERC: PROcesses, driv... (1739031), EC | ERA-PLANET (689443), AKA | Simulating Antarctic mari... (286587)

    Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution inresponse to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute tofuture sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future massbalance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physicalprocesses, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presentsresults from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolutionof the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet ModelIntercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from theCoupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climatemodel results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in responseto increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent(SLE) under Representative ConcentrationPathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment withconstant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution underclimate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of theWest Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighingthe increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelfcollapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface ofice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without iceshelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, thecalibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavitiesand the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario basedon two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared tosimulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and displaylimited mass gain in East Antarctica. info:eu-repo/semantics/published

  • Authors: 
    Ralf Greve; Christopher Chambers; Reinhard Calov; Takashi Obase; Fuyuki Saito; Kaho Harada; Ayako Abe-Ouchi;
    Publisher: Copernicus GmbH

    <p>The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) is a major international climate modelling initiative. As part of it, the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets until the year 2100. This was achieved by defining a set of future climate scenarios by evaluating results of CMIP5 and CMIP6 global climate models (GCMs, including MIROC) over and surrounding the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets. These scenarios were used as forcings for a variety of ice-sheet models operated by different working groups worldwide (Goelzer et al. 2020, doi: 10.5194/tc-14-3071-2020; Seroussi et al. 2020, doi: 10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020).</p><p>Here, we use the model SICOPOLIS to carry out extended versions of the ISMIP6 future climate experiments for the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets until the year 3000. For the atmospheric forcing (anomalies of surface mass balance and temperature) beyond 2100, we sample randomly the ten-year interval 2091-2100, while the oceanic forcing beyond 2100 is kept fixed at 2100 conditions. We conduct experiments for the pessimistic, "business as usual" pathway RCP8.5 (CMIP5) / SSP5-8.5 (CMIP6), and for the optimistic RCP2.6 (CMIP5) / SSP1-2.6 (CMIP6) pathway that represents substantial emissions reductions. For the unforced, constant-climate control runs, both ice sheets are stable until the year 3000. For RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, they suffer massive mass losses: For Greenland, ~1.7 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the 12-experiment mean, and ~3.5 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. For Antarctica, ~3.3 m SLE for the 14-experiment mean, and ~5.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. For RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the mass losses are limited to a two-experiment mean of ~0.26 m SLE for Greenland, and a three-experiment mean of ~0.25 m SLE for Antarctica. Climate-change mitigation during the next decades will therefore be an efficient means for limiting the contribution of the ice sheets to sea-level rise in the long term.</p>

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Seroussi, Helene; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Anthony P.; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William L.; Abe Ouchi, Ayako; Agosta, Cecile; Albrecht, Torsten; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Barthel, Alice; +37 more
    Publisher: Zenodo

    This archive provides the ice sheet model outputs produced as part of the publication "ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century", published in The Cryosphere, https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/ Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. Contact: Helene Seroussi, Helene.seroussi@jpl.nasa.gov Further information on ISMIP6 and ISMIP6 Antarctica Projections can be found here: http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/activities/targeted/ismip6 http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/wiki/index.php?title=ISMIP6-Projections-Antarctica Users should cite the original publication when using all or part of the data. In order to document CMIP6’s scientific impact and enable ongoing support of CMIP, users are also obligated to acknowledge CMIP6, ISMIP6 and the participating modeling groups. About the dataset: - The results are based on model output computed from the ISMIP6 native grids that vary between models. - The results are calculated over the ice-covered area of Antarctica, corrected for map projection errors, ice sheet model specific densities taken into account. - Results for the experiments 'exp*' are provided both as raw results and calculated as differences to the control experiment (ctrl_proj_open or ctrl_proj_std depending on the experiment). The later files are named with "minus_ctrl_proj" to indicate that the control run is substracted. - Results for ctrl_proj_open, ctrl_proj_std, hist_open and hist_std are not corrected to remove the control run. ------------------------------------------------ Directory structure: groupname1 modelname1 expid computed_iareafl_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_iareafl_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_iareagr_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_iareagr_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_icearea_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_icearea_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_ivol_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_ivol_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_ivaf_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_ivaf_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_smb_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_smb_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_smbgr_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_smbgr_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_bmbfl_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc computed_bmbfl_minus_ctrl_proj_AIS_groupname1_modelname1_expid.nc ... ------------------------------------------------- Description of variables: icearea - ice area [m^2] iareafl - floating ice area [m^2] iareagr - grounded ice area [m^2] ivol - ice volume [m^3] ivaf - ice volume above floatation [m^3] smb - spatially integrated surface mass balance [kg/s] smbgr - spatially integrated surface mass balance over grounded ice [kg/s] bmbfl - spatially integrated basal melt rate under floating ice (negative for melting ice) [kg/s] Variables per file: rhoi - model specific ice density [kg m-3] rhow - model specific ocean water density [kg m-3] time - time, in years [variable] - global variable integrated over the Antarctica ice sheet [variable]_region_1 - variable integrated over West Antarctica [variable]_region_2 - variable integrated over East Antarctica [variable]_region_3 - variable integrated over the Antarctic Peninsula [variable]_sector_X - variable integrated over the X sector of the Antarctic ice sheet (18 sectors, from 1 to 18) -------------------------------------------------- Data usage notice: If you use any of these results, please acknowledge the work of the people involved in producing them. Acknowledgements should have language similar to the below. "We thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) effort, which provided support for ISMIP6 through sponsoring of workshops, hosting the ISMIP6 website and wiki, and promoted ISMIP6. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through it's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP5 and CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the CMIP data and providing access, the University at Buffalo for ISMIP6 data distribution and upload, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP5 and CMIP6 and ESGF. We thank the ISMIP6 steering committee, the ISMIP6 model selection group and ISMIP6 dataset preparation group for their continuous engagement in defining ISMIP6." You should also refer to and cite the following papers: Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020. {"references": ["Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033\u20133070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020.", "Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331\u20132368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020."]}

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Seroussi, Hélène; Nowicki, Sophie; Payne, Anthony J.; Goelzer, Heiko; Lipscomb, William H.; Abe-Ouchi, Ayako; Agosta, Cécile; Albrecht, Torsten; Asay-Davis, Xylar; Barthel, Alice; +37 more
    Publisher: Zenodo

    This archive provides the scripts and routines used as part of the publication "ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century", published in The Cryosphere, https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/14/3033/2020/ Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. Contact: Helene Seroussi, Helene.seroussi@jpl.nasa.gov Further information on ISMIP6 and ISMIP6 Antarctica Projections can be found here: http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/activities/targeted/ismip6 http://www.climate-cryosphere.org/wiki/index.php?title=ISMIP6-Projections-Antarctica Users should cite the original publication when using all or part of the data. In order to document CMIP6's scientific impact and enable ongoing support of CMIP, users are also obligated to acknowledge CMIP6, ISMIP6 and the participating modeling groups. Archive overview ----------------------------------------------- README.txt - this information figures_paper.m - Matlab script to reproduce figures in Seroussi et al. (2020) scalars_paper.m - Matlab script to compute scalars from two-dimensional fields submitted by ice sheet models specifics.m - Matlab script including parameters from ice flow models necessary but not included in the output files WriteNetCDFComputedOutputs.m - Matlab script to write NetCDF files of scalar outputs Data/ - Directory with datasets needed to compute scalars and reproduce figures Data/af2_el_ismip6_ant_01.nc - 1 km grid containing area distorsion Data/sectors_4km.nc - Antarctic regions and sectors at 4 km resolution Data/sectors_8km.nc - Antarctic regions and sectors at 8 km resolution Data/sectors_16km.nc - Antarctic regions and sectors at 16 km resolution Data/sectors_32km.nc - Antarctic regions and sectors at 32 km resolution Data/sectors_8km_iceonly.nc - Antarctic regions and sectors at 8 km resolution, present-day ice covered areas only Some additional files might be needed to reproduce the figures: distinguishable_colors - Matlab file to create colors for ice sheet models: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/fileexchange/29702-generate-maximally-perceptually-distinct-colors hatchfill2 - Matlab file to add hatches on collapsed ice shelves: https://www.mathworks.com/matlabcentral/mlc-downloads/downloads/submissions/53593/versions/10/previews/hatchfill2.m/index.html thickness_grid - ice thickness on 8 km standard ISMIP6 grid used to compare with modeled thickness, for example based on BedMachineAntarctica https://nsidc.org/data/NSIDC-0756 velocity_grid - ice velocity on 8 km standard ISMIP6 grid used to compare with modeled velocity, for example based on MEaSURE dataset: https://nsidc.org/data/NSIDC-0754/versions/1 ISMIP6 datasets regridded at 8 km to create 2d figures - these can be found on the ISMIP6 archive, please contact ismip6@gmail.com for instructions to get access ------------------------------------------------ Data usage notice: If you use any of these results, please acknowledge the work of the people involved in producing them. Acknowledgements should have language similar to the below. "We thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) effort, which provided support for ISMIP6 through sponsoring of workshops, hosting the ISMIP6 website and wiki, and promoted ISMIP6. We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme, which, through it's Working Group on Coupled Modelling, coordinated and promoted CMIP5 and CMIP6. We thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output, the Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) for archiving the CMIP data and providing access, the University at Buffalo for ISMIP6 data distribution and upload, and the multiple funding agencies who support CMIP5 and CMIP6 and ESGF. We thank the ISMIP6 steering committee, the ISMIP6 model selection group and ISMIP6 dataset preparation group for their continuous engagement in defining ISMIP6." You should also refer to and cite the following papers: Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033–3070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020. Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331–2368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020. {"references": ["Seroussi, H., Nowicki, S., Payne, A. J., Goelzer, H., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Barthel, A., Calov, R., Cullather, R., Dumas, C., Galton-Fenzi, B. K., Gladstone, R., Golledge, N. R., Gregory, J. M., Greve, R., Hattermann, T., Hoffman, M. J., Humbert, A., Huybrechts, P., Jourdain, N. C., Kleiner, T., Larour, E., Leguy, G. R., Lowry, D. P., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Pattyn, F., Pelle, T., Price, S. F., Quiquet, A., Reese, R., Schlegel, N.-J., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Sun, S., Trusel, L. D., Van Breedam, J., van de Wal, R. S. W., Winkelmann, R., Zhao, C., Zhang, T., and Zwinger, T.: ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century, The Cryosphere, 14, 3033\u20133070, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-3033-2020, 2020.", "Nowicki, S., Goelzer, H., Seroussi, H., Payne, A. J., Lipscomb, W. H., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Asay-Davis, X. S., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Cullather, R., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., Gregory, J. M., Hattermann, T., Jourdain, N. C., Kuipers Munneke, P., Larour, E., Little, C. M., Morlighem, M., Nias, I., Shepherd, A., Simon, E., Slater, D., Smith, R. S., Straneo, F., Trusel, L. D., van den Broeke, M. R., and van de Wal, R.: Experimental protocol for sea level projections from ISMIP6 stand-alone ice sheet models, The Cryosphere, 14, 2331\u20132368, https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-2331-2020, 2020."]}

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