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Global climate model (GCM) outputs feature systematic biases that render them unsuitable for direct use by impact models, especially for hydrological studies. To deal with this issue, many bias correction techniques have been developed to adjust the modelled variables against observations, focusing mainly on precipitation and temperature. However, most state-of-the-art hydrological models require more forcing variables, in addition to precipitation and temperature, such as radiation, humidity, air pressure, and wind speed. The biases in these additional variables can hinder hydrological simulations, but the effect of the bias of each variable is unexplored. Here we examine the effect of GCM biases on historical runoff simulations for each forcing variable individually, using the JULES land surface model set up at the global scale. Based on the quantified effect, we assess which variables should be included in bias correction procedures. To this end, a partial correction bias assessment experiment is conducted, to test the effect of the biases of six climate variables from a set of three GCMs. The effect of the bias of each climate variable individually is quantified by comparing the changes in simulated runoff that correspond to the bias of each tested variable. A methodology for the classification of the effect of biases in four effect categories (ECs), based on the magnitude and sensitivity of runoff changes, is developed and applied. Our results show that, while globally the largest changes in modelled runoff are caused by precipitation and temperature biases, there are regions where runoff is substantially affected by and/or more sensitive to radiation and humidity. Global maps of bias ECs reveal the regions mostly affected by the bias of each variable. Based on our findings, for global-scale applications, bias correction of radiation and humidity, in addition to that of precipitation and temperature, is advised. Finer spatial-scale information is also provided, to suggest bias correction of variables beyond precipitation and temperature for regional studies.

Streamflow in south-central Chile (SCC, ∼ 37–42∘ S) is vital for agriculture, forestry production, hydroelectricity, and human consumption. Recent drought episodes have generated hydrological deficits with damaging effects on these activities. This region is projected to undergo major reductions in water availability, concomitant with projected increases in water demand. However, the lack of long-term records hampers the development of accurate estimations of natural variability and trends. In order to provide more information on long-term streamflow variability and trends in SCC, here we report findings of an analysis of instrumental records and a tree-ring reconstruction of the summer streamflow of the Río Imperial (∼ 37∘ 40′ S–38∘ 50′ S). This is the first reconstruction in Chile targeted at this season. Results from the instrumental streamflow record (∼ 1940 onwards) indicated that the hydrological regime is fundamentally pluvial with a small snowmelt contribution during spring, and evidenced a decreasing trend, both for the summer and the full annual record. The reconstruction showed that streamflow below the average characterized the post-1980 period, with more frequent, but not more intense, drought episodes. We additionally found that the recent positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode has significantly influenced streamflow. These findings agree with previous studies, suggesting a robust regional signal and a shift to a new hydrological scenario. In this paper, we also discuss implications of these results for water managers and stakeholders; we provide rationale and examples that support the need for the incorporation of tree-ring reconstructions into water resources management.

This study investigates the use of a nonparametric, tree-based model, quantile regression forests (QRF), for combining multiple global precipitation datasets and characterizing the uncertainty of the combined product. We used the Iberian Peninsula as the study area, with a study period spanning 11 years (2000–2010). Inputs to the QRF model included three satellite precipitation products, CMORPH, PERSIANN, and 3B42 (V7); an atmospheric reanalysis precipitation and air temperature dataset; satellite-derived near-surface daily soil moisture data; and a terrain elevation dataset. We calibrated the QRF model for two seasons and two terrain elevation categories and used it to generate ensemble for these conditions. Evaluation of the combined product was based on a high-resolution, ground-reference precipitation dataset (SAFRAN) available at 5 km 1 h−1 resolution. Furthermore, to evaluate relative improvements and the overall impact of the combined product in hydrological response, we used the generated ensemble to force a distributed hydrological model (the SURFEX land surface model and the RAPID river routing scheme) and compared its streamflow simulation results with the corresponding simulations from the individual global precipitation and reference datasets. We concluded that the proposed technique could generate realizations that successfully encapsulate the reference precipitation and provide significant improvement in streamflow simulations, with reduction in systematic and random error on the order of 20–99 and 44–88 %, respectively, when considering the ensemble mean.

In this study, we investigated the application and the transferability of the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT) in a partly glacierized Alpine catchment characterized by extreme climatic conditions and steep terrain. The model was initially calibrated for the 10 km2 watershed of the Damma glacier Critical Zone Observatory (CZO) in central Switzerland using monitoring data for the period of 2009–2011 and then was evaluated for 2012–2013 in the same area. Model performance was found to be satisfactory against both the Nash–Sutcliffe criterion (NS) and a benchmark efficiency (BE). The transferability of the model was assessed by using the parameters calibrated on the small watershed and applying the model to the approximately 100 km2 catchment that drains into the hydropower reservoir of the Göscheneralpsee and includes the Damma glacier CZO. Model results were compared to the reservoir inflow data from 1997 to 2010 and it was found that the model predicted successfully snowmelt timing and autumn recession but could not accurately capture the peak flow for certain years. Runoff was slightly overestimated from late May to June, when it is dominated by snowmelt. Finally, we investigated the response of the greater catchment to climate change using three different climate change scenarios, and the results were compared to those of a previous study, where two different hydrological models, PREVAH and ALPINE3D, were used. The methodology presented here, where SWAT is calibrated for a small watershed and then applied for a bigger area with similar climatic conditions and geographical characteristics, could work even under extreme conditions like ours. However, greater attention should be given to the differences between glacier melt and snowmelt dynamics. In conclusion, this assessment test on the transferability of SWAT on different scales gave valuable information about the strengths and weaknesses of the model when it was applied under conditions different to those under which it was calibrated.

There are only a small number of recent publications discussing glacial runoff in Antarctica, and even fewer of them deal with the groundwater flow discharge. This paper focuses on the groundwater flow aspects and is based on a detailed study performed on a small hydrological catchment, informally called Potter basin, located on King George Island (KGI; Isla 25 de Mayo), South Shetland Islands, at the northern tip of the Antarctic Peninsula. The basin is representative for the rugged coastline of the northern Antarctic Peninsula and is discussed as a case study for the possible future evolution of similar basins further to the south. A conceptual hydrogeological model has been defined using vertical electrical soundings (VESs), geological and hydrogeological surveying methods, geomorphological interpretation based on satellite imagery, permeability tests, piezometric level measurements, meteorological, geocryological and glaciological data sets. The transmissivities of the fluvial talik aquifer and suprapermafrost aquifer range from 162.0 to 2719.9×10-5 m2 s−1 and in basaltic fissured aquifers from 3.47 to 5.79×10-5 m2 s−1. The transmissivities found in the active layer of hummocky moraines amount to 75.23×10-5 m2 s−1 and to 163.0×10-5 m2 s−1 in the sea deposits, and in the fluvioglacial deposits, they were observed between 902.8 and 2662.0×10-5 m2 d−1. Finally, the groundwater flow discharge was assessed to 0.47 m3 s−1 (during the austral summer months of January and February), and the total groundwater storage was estimated to 560×103 m3. The Antarctic Peninsula region has experienced drastic climatological changes within the past five decades. Under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change scenarios, a further warming of the polar regions can be expected as polar amplification of our changing climate. Although the basin in consideration is small and results are valid only during austral summers with surface air temperatures above the freezing point, it serves as model study that can be regarded as representative for the western coastline of the Antarctic Peninsula further south under expected future warming, with surface air temperatures periodically surpassing freezing point. This data can be used to adjust glacial mass balance assessments in the region and to improve the understanding of coastal sea water processes, and their effects on the marine biota, as a consequence of the global climate change.