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There is serious concern that the hazard, or probability, of river floods is increasing over time. Starting from narratives that are sometimes discussed in public, the article addresses three hypotheses. The first suggests that land-use changes, such as deforestation, urbanisation and soil compaction by agriculture, increase flood hazards. This review finds that land-use effects on floods are particularly pronounced in small catchments since soil permeability plays an important role in infiltration at this scale. For regional floods, and the most extreme events, land use is usually not the most important control, since areas of soil saturation play a greater role in runoff generation, which are less dependent on soil permeability. The second hypothesis suggests that hydraulic interventions and structures, such as river training, levees and dams, increase flood hazards. This review finds that hydraulic structures have the greatest impact on events of medium magnitude, associated with return periods of tens to hundreds of years, and that their effects are usually local. Long-term interactions between humans and floods must be taken into account when predicting future flood hazards. The third hypothesis suggests that climate change increases flood hazard. This review finds that, in small catchments of a few hectares, flood hazards may increase due to convective storms. In large catchments, where regional floods occur, changes are not necessarily directly related to precipitation, nor are they directly related to rising air temperatures, but are determined by the seasonal interplay of soil moisture, snow and extreme precipitation via runoff generation. Increases and decreases in flood hazards have been observed worldwide. It is concluded that significant progress has been made in recent years in understanding the role of land use, hydraulic structures and climate in changing river flood hazards. It is crucial to consider all three factors of change in flood risk management and communicate them to the general public in a nuanced way.

The overall purpose of our work is to take advantage of Thermal Infra-Red (TIR) imagery to estimate landscape evapotranspiration fluxes over agricultural areas, relying on two approaches of increasing complexity and input data needs: a Surface Energy Balance (SEB) model, TSEB, used directly at the landscape scale with TIR forcing, and the aggregation of a Soil-Vegetation-Atmosphere Transfer (SVAT) model, SEtHyS, run at high resolution (≃100 m) and constrained by assimilation of TIR data. Within this preliminary study, models skills are compared thanks to large in situ database covering different crops, stress and climate conditions. Domains of validity are assessed and the possible loss of performance resulting from inaccurate but realistic inputs (forcing and model parameters) due to scaling effects are quantified. The in situ data set came from 3 experiments carried out in southern France and in Morocco. On average, models provide half-hourly averaged estimations of latent heat flux (LE) with a RMSE of around 55 W m−2 for TSEB and 47 W m−2 for SEtHyS, and estimations of sensible heat flux (H) with a RMSE of around 29 W m−2 for TSEB and 38 W m−2 for SEtHyS. TSEB has been shown to be more flexible and requires one single set of parameters but lead to low performances on rising vegetation and stressed conditions. An in-depth study on the Priestley-Taylor key parameter highlights its marked diurnal cycle and the need to adjust its value to improve flux partition between sensible and latent heat fluxes (1.5 and 1.25 for south-western France and Morocco, respectively). Optimal values of 1.8 to 2 were hilighted under cloudy conditions, which is of particular interest with the emergence of low altitude drone acquisition. SEtHyS is valid in more cases while it required a finer parameters tuning and a better knowledge of surface and vegetation. This study participates to lay the ground for exploring the complementarities between instantaneous and continuous dynamic evapotranspiration mapping monitored with TIR data.

The Blue Nile originates from Lake Tana in the Ethiopian Highlands and contributes about 60–69% of the main Nile discharge. Previous studies investigated the relationship of sea surface temperature (SST) in the Pacific Ocean (Niño 3.4 region) to occurrence of meteorological and hydrological droughts in the Nile Basin. In this paper we focus on the dependence of occurrence of droughts and floods in the upper catchment of the Blue Nile on the timing of El Niño and La Niña events. Different events start at different times of the year and follow each other, exhibiting different patterns and sequences. Here we study the impact of these timing and temporal patterns on the Blue Nile droughts and floods. The comparison between the discharge measurements (1965–2012) at the outlet of the upper catchment of the Blue Nile and the El Niño index shows that when an El Niño event is followed by a La Niña event, there is a 67% chance for occurrence of an extreme flood. Furthermore, we also found that 83% of El Niño events starting in April–June resulted in droughts in the upper catchment of the Blue Nile. Although the current study is limited by the reduced number of samples, we propose that observations as well as global model forecasts of SST during this season could be used in seasonal forecasting of the Blue Nile flow.

Our study develops and tests a geostatistical technique for locally enhancing macro-scale rainfall–runoff simulations on the basis of observed streamflow data that were not used in calibration. We consider Tyrol (Austria and Italy) and two different types of daily streamflow data: macro-scale rainfall–runoff simulations at 11 prediction nodes and observations at 46 gauged catchments. The technique consists of three main steps: (1) period-of-record flow–duration curves (FDCs) are geostatistically predicted at target ungauged basins, for which macro-scale model runs are available; (2) residuals between geostatistically predicted FDCs and FDCs constructed from simulated streamflow series are computed; (3) the relationship between duration and residuals is used for enhancing simulated time series at target basins. We apply the technique in cross-validation to 11 gauged catchments, for which simulated and observed streamflow series are available over the period 1980–2010. Our results show that (1) the procedure can significantly enhance macro-scale simulations (regional LNSE increases from nearly zero to ≈0.7) and (2) improvements are significant for low gauging network densities (i.e. 1 gauge per 2000 km2).

Sensors and sensor networks play an important role in decision-making related to water quality, operational streamflow forecasting, flood early warning systems, and other areas. In this paper we review a number of existing applications and analyse a variety of evaluation and design procedures for sensor networks with respect to various criteria. Most of the existing approaches focus on maximising the observability and information content of a variable of interest. From the context of hydrological modelling only a few studies use the performance of the hydrological simulation in terms of output discharge as a design criterion. In addition to the review, we propose a framework for classifying the existing design methods, and a generalised procedure for an optimal network design in the context of rainfall–runoff hydrological modelling.

Socio-hydrology is the science of human influence on hydrology and the influence of the water cycle on human social systems. This newly emerging discipline inherently involves a historic perspective, often focusing on timescales of several centuries. While data on human history is typically available for this time frame, gathering information on the hydrological situation during such a period can prove difficult: measured hydrological data for such long periods are rare, while models and secondary data sets from geomorphology, pedology or archaeology are typically not accurate enough over such a short time. In the first part of this study, the use of historic maps in hydrology is reviewed. Major breakthroughs were the acceptance of historic map content as valid data, the use of preserved features for investigating situations earlier than the map, and the onset of digital georeferencing and data integration. Historic maps can be primary quantitative sources of hydro-geomorphological information, they can provide a context for point-based measurements over larger areas, and they can deliver time series for a better understanding of change scenarios. In the second part, a case study is presented: water level fluctuations of Lake Balaton were reconstructed from maps, levelling logs and other documents. An 18th century map system of the whole 5700 km2 catchment was georeferenced, integrated with two 19th century map systems, and wetlands, forests and open water digitized. Changes in wetland area were compared with lake water level changes in a 220 yr time series. Historic maps show that the water level of the lake was closer to present-day levels than expected, and that wetland loss pre-dates drainage of the lake. The present and future role of historic maps is discussed. Historic hydrological data has to be treated with caution: while it is possible to learn form the past, the assumption that future changes will be like past changes does not always hold. Nevertheless, old maps are relatively accessible data sets and the knowledge base for using them is rapidly growing, and it can be expected that long-term time series will be established by integrating georeferenced map systems over large areas. In the Appendix, a step-by-step guide to using historic maps in hydrology is given, starting from finding a map, through georeferencing and processing the map to publication of the results.

Streamflow in south-central Chile (SCC, ∼ 37–42∘ S) is vital for agriculture, forestry production, hydroelectricity, and human consumption. Recent drought episodes have generated hydrological deficits with damaging effects on these activities. This region is projected to undergo major reductions in water availability, concomitant with projected increases in water demand. However, the lack of long-term records hampers the development of accurate estimations of natural variability and trends. In order to provide more information on long-term streamflow variability and trends in SCC, here we report findings of an analysis of instrumental records and a tree-ring reconstruction of the summer streamflow of the Río Imperial (∼ 37∘ 40′ S–38∘ 50′ S). This is the first reconstruction in Chile targeted at this season. Results from the instrumental streamflow record (∼ 1940 onwards) indicated that the hydrological regime is fundamentally pluvial with a small snowmelt contribution during spring, and evidenced a decreasing trend, both for the summer and the full annual record. The reconstruction showed that streamflow below the average characterized the post-1980 period, with more frequent, but not more intense, drought episodes. We additionally found that the recent positive phase of the Southern Annular Mode has significantly influenced streamflow. These findings agree with previous studies, suggesting a robust regional signal and a shift to a new hydrological scenario. In this paper, we also discuss implications of these results for water managers and stakeholders; we provide rationale and examples that support the need for the incorporation of tree-ring reconstructions into water resources management.

Soil moisture availability is important in regulating photosynthesis and controlling land surface-climate feedbacks at both the local and global scale. Recently, global remote-sensing datasets for soil moisture have become available. In this paper we assess the possibility of using remotely sensed soil moisture – AMSR-E (LPRM) – to similate soil moisture dynamics of the process-based vegetation model ORCHIDEE by evaluating the correspondence between these two products using both correlation and autocorrelation analyses. We find that the soil moisture product of AMSR-E (LPRM) and the simulated soil moisture in ORCHIDEE correlate well in space and time, in particular when considering the root zone soil moisture of ORCHIDEE. However, the root zone soil moisture in ORCHIDEE has on average a higher temporal autocorrelation relative to AMSR-E (LPRM) and in situ measurements. This may be due to the different vertical depth of the two products – AMSR-E (LPRM) at the 2–5 cm surface depth and ORCHIDEE at the root zone (max. 2 m) depth – to uncertainty in precipitation forcing in ORCHIDEE, and to the fact that the structure of ORCHIDEE consists of a single-layer deep soil, which does not allow simulation of the proper cascade of time scales that characterize soil drying after each rain event. We conclude that assimilating soil moisture, using AMSR-E (LPRM) in a land surface model like ORCHIDEE with an improved hydrological model of more than one soil layer, may significantly improve the soil moisture dynamics, which could lead to improved CO2 and energy flux predictions.

Understanding the influence of vegetation on water storage and flux in the upper soil is crucial in assessing the consequences of climate and land use change. We sampled the upper 20 cm of podzolic soils at 5 cm intervals in four sites differing in their vegetation (Scots Pine (Pinus sylvestris) and heather (Calluna sp. and Erica Sp)) and aspect. The sites were located within the Bruntland Burn long-term experimental catchment in the Scottish Highlands, a low energy, wet environment. Sampling took place on 11 occasions between September 2015 and September 2016 to capture seasonal variability in isotope dynamics. The pore waters of soil samples were analyzed for their isotopic composition (δ2H and δ18O) with the direct-equilibration method. Our results show that the soil waters in the top soil are, despite the low potential evaporation rates in such northern latitudes, kinetically fractionated compared to the precipitation input throughout the year. This fractionation signal decreases within the upper 15 cm resulting in the top 5 cm being isotopically differentiated to the soil at 15–20 cm soil depth. There are significant differences in the fractionation signal between soils beneath heather and soils beneath Scots pine, with the latter being more pronounced. But again, this difference diminishes within the upper 15 cm of soil. The enrichment in heavy isotopes in the topsoil follows a seasonal hysteresis pattern, indicating a lag time between the fractionation signal in the soil and the increase/decrease of soil evaporation in spring/autumn. Based on the kinetic enrichment of the soil water isotopes, we estimated the soil evaporation losses to be about 5 and 10 % of the infiltrating water for soils beneath heather and Scots pine, respectively. The high sampling frequency in time (monthly) and depth (5 cm intervals) revealed high temporal and spatial variability of the isotopic composition of soil waters, which can be critical, when using stable isotopes as tracers to assess plant water uptake patterns within the critical zone or applying them to calibrate tracer-aided hydrological models either at the plot to the catchment scale.

In 2009, the International Soil Moisture Network (ISMN) was initiated as a community effort, funded by the European Space Agency, to serve as a centralised data hosting facility for globally available in situ soil moisture measurements (Dorigo et al., 2011b, a). The ISMN brings together in situ soil moisture measurements collected and freely shared by a multitude of organisations, harmonises them in terms of units and sampling rates, applies advanced quality control, and stores them in a database. Users can freely retrieve the data from this database through an online web portal (https://ismn.earth/en/, last access: 28 October 2021). Meanwhile, the ISMN has evolved into the primary in situ soil moisture reference database worldwide, as evidenced by more than 3000 active users and over 1000 scientific publications referencing the data sets provided by the network. As of July 2021, the ISMN now contains the data of 71 networks and 2842 stations located all over the globe, with a time period spanning from 1952 to the present. The number of networks and stations covered by the ISMN is still growing, and approximately 70 % of the data sets contained in the database continue to be updated on a regular or irregular basis. The main scope of this paper is to inform readers about the evolution of the ISMN over the past decade, including a description of network and data set updates and quality control procedures. A comprehensive review of the existing literature making use of ISMN data is also provided in order to identify current limitations in functionality and data usage and to shape priorities for the next decade of operations of this unique community-based data repository.