Advanced search in
Research products
arrow_drop_down
Searching FieldsTerms
Any field
arrow_drop_down
includes
arrow_drop_down
Include:
581 Research products, page 1 of 59

  • Publications
  • Research data
  • Research software
  • 2013-2022
  • Preprint
  • FR
  • English
  • Hyper Article en Ligne
  • Mémoires en Sciences de l'Information et de la Communication
  • Hyper Article en Ligne - Sciences de l'Homme et de la Société
  • COVID-19

10
arrow_drop_down
Relevance
arrow_drop_down
  • English
    Authors: 
    Abidi, Hani; Amami, Rim; Trabelsi, Chiraz;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The model descibes the epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 in a population after vaccination. Using the maximum principale, our goal is to prove the existence of an optimal strategy such that it minimize the number of infected people after vaccination. Finally, some numerical results are provided.

  • Publication . Other literature type . Article . 2020
    Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Ali Moussaoui; Pierre Auger;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Algeria was reported on 25 February 2020. Since then, it has progressed rapidly and the number of cases grow exponentially each day. In this article, we utilize SEIR modelling to forecast COVID-19 outbreak in Algeria under two scenarios by using the real-time data from March 01 to April 10, 2020. In the first scenario: no control measures are put into place, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Algeria is 2.1, the number of new cases in Algeria will peak from around late May to early June and up to 82% of the Algerian population will likely contract the coronavirus. In the second scenario, at a certain date T, drastic control measures are taken, people are being advised to self-isolate or to quarantine and will be able to leave their homes only if necessary. We use SEIR model with fast change between fully protected and risky states. We prove that the final size of the epidemic depends strongly on the cumulative number of cases at the date when we implement intervention and on the fraction of the population in confinement. Our analysis shows that the longer we wait, the worse the situation will be and this very quickly produces.

  • Publication . Article . Preprint . 2020
    Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Alberto Alemanno;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The European response to COVID-19 has revealed an inconvenient truth. Despite having integrated public health concerns across all its policies – be it agriculture, consumer protection, or security –, the Union cannot directly act to save people’s lives. Only member states can do so. Yet when they adopted unilateral measures to counter the spread of the virus, those proved not only ineffective but also disruptive on vital supply chains, by ultimately preventing the flow of essential goods and people across the Union. These fragmented efforts in tackling cross-border health threats have almost immediately prompted political calls for the urgent creation of a European Health Union. Yet this call raises more questions than answers. With the aim to offer a rigorous and timely blueprint to decision-makers and the public at large, this Special Issue of the European Journal of Risk Regulation contextualizes such a new political project within the broader constitutional and institutional framework of EU public health law and policy. By introducing the Special, this paper argues that unless the envisaged Health Union will tackle the root causes of what prevented the Union from effectively responding to COVID-19 – the divergent health capacity across the Union –, it might fall short of its declared objective of strengthening the EU’resilience for cross-border health threats.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Achraf Ammar; Michael Brach; Khaled Trabelsi; Hamdi Chtourou; Omar Boukhris; Liwa Masmoudi; Bassem Bouaziz; Ellen Bentlage; Daniella How; Mona A. Ahmed; +47 more
    Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
    Country: France

    AbstractBackgroundPublic health recommendations and governmental measures during the COVID-19 pandemic have enforced numerous restrictions on daily living including social distancing, isolation and home confinement. While these measures are imperative to abate the spreading of COVID-19, the impact of these restrictions on health behaviours and lifestyle at home is undefined. Therefore, an international online survey was launched in April 2020 in seven languages to elucidate the behavioral and lifestyle consequences of COVID-19 restrictions. This report presents the preliminary results from the first thousand responders on physical activity (PA) and nutrition behaviours.MethodsThirty-five research organisations from Europe, North-Africa, Western Asia and the Americas promoted the survey through their networks to the general society, in English, German, French, Arabic, Spanish, Portugese, and Slovenian languages. Questions were presented in a differential format with questions related to responses “before” and “during” confinement conditions.Results1047 replies (54% women) from Asia (36%), Africa (40%), Europe (21%) and other (3%) were included into a general analysis. The COVID-19 home confinement had a negative effect on all intensities of PA (vigorous, moderate, walking and overall). Conversely, daily sitting time increased from 5 to 8 hours per day. Additionally, food consumption and meal patterns (the type of food, eating out of control, snacks between meals, number of meals) were more unhealthy during confinement with only alcohol binge drink decreasing significantly.ConclusionWhile isolation is a necessary measure to protect public health, our results indicate that it alters physical activity and eating behaviours in a direction that would compromise health. A more detailed analysis of survey data will allow for a segregation of these responses in different age groups, countries and other subgroups which will help develop bespoke interventions to mitigate the negative lifestyle behaviors manifest during the COVID-19 confinement.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Margaret Chitiga; Martin Henseler; Ramos Mabugu; Helene Maisonnave;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    To contribute towards addressing the problem of relatively few general equilibrium studies focusing on gender impacts of disease pandemics, this paper uses a gendered Computable General Equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model to study the short run economic effects of COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. A mild and severe scenario is run to represent the pandemic. Findings suggest that while COVID-19 leads to negative economic effects irrespective of scenario, female-headed households bear a disproportionately higher burden of the brunt. Because women tend to be more concentrated in employment in sectors that are hurt the most by COVID-19 response measures as well as that they predominate in unskilled categories, the simulation results show that women suffer disproportionately more from higher unemployment than their male counterparts though the differences are not as pronounced. The poverty outcomes show worsened vulnerability for female-headed households given that, even prior to the pandemic, poverty was already higher amongst women. These results are important in informing evidence-based responses by government to the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Stuart P. Weisberg; Thomas J. Connors; Yun Zhu; Matthew R. Baldwin; Wen-Hsuan W. Lin; Sandeep N. Wontakal; Peter A. Szabo; Steven B. Wells; Pranay Dogra; Joshua I. Gray; +18 more
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
    Project: NIH | Development of therapeuti... (1R01NS105699-01A1), NIH | Bioinformatics (5P01AI106697-02), NIH | Development of Localized ... (1K23AI141686-01)

    ABSTRACTClinical manifestations of COVID-19 caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are associated with age. While children are largely spared from severe respiratory disease, they can present with a SARS-CoV-2-associated multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) similar to Kawasaki’s disease. Here, we show distinct antibody (Ab) responses in children with MIS-C compared to adults with severe COVID-19 causing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and those who recovered from mild disease. There was a reduced breadth and specificity of anti-SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies in MIS-C patients compared to the COVID patient groups; MIS-C predominantly generated IgG Abs specific for the Spike (S) protein but not for the nucleocapsid (N) protein, while the COVID-19 cohorts had anti-S IgG, IgM and IgA Abs, as well as anti-N IgG Abs. Moreover, MIS-C patients had reduced neutralizing activity compared to both COVID-19 cohorts, indicating a reduced protective serological response. These results suggest a distinct infection course and immune response in children and adults who develop severe disease, with implications for optimizing treatments based on symptom and age.

  • English
    Authors: 
    Collin, Annabelle; Prague, Mélanie; Moireau, Philippe;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    International audience; Estimation of dynamical systems - in particular, identification of their parameters - is fundamental in computational biology, e.g., pharmacology, virology, or epidemiology, to reconcile model runs with available measurements. Unfortunately, the mean and variance priorities of the parameters must be chosen very appropriately to balance our distrust of the measurements when the data are sparse or corrupted by noise. Otherwise, the identification procedure fails. One option is to use repeated measurements collected in configurations with common priorities - for example, with multiple subjects in a clinical trial or clusters in an epidemiological investigation. This shared information is beneficial and is typically modeled in statistics using nonlinear mixed-effects models. In this paper, we present a data assimilation method that is compatible with such a mixed-effects strategy without being compromised by the potential curse of dimensionality. We define population-based estimators through maximum likelihood estimation. We then develop an equivalent robust sequential estimator for large populations based on filtering theory that sequentially integrates data. Finally, we limit the computational complexity by defining a reduced-order version of this population-based Kalman filter that clusters subpopulations with common observational backgrounds. The performance of the resulting algorithm is evaluated against classical pharmacokinetics benchmarks. Finally, the versatility of the proposed method is tested in an epidemiological study using real data on the hospitalisation of COVID-19 patients in the regions and departments of France.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Christelle Baunez; Mickael Degoulet; Stéphane Luchini; Patrick A. Pintus; Miriam Teschl;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
    Project: ANR | AMSE (EUR) (ANR-17-EURE-0020)

    Even though much has been learned about the new pathogen SARS-CoV-2 since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, a lot of uncertainty remains. In this paper we argue that what is important to know under uncertainty is whether harm accelerates and whether health policies achieve deceleration of harm. For this, we need to see cases in relation to diagnostic effort and not to look at indicators based on cases only, such as a number of widely used epidemiological indicators, including the reproduction number, do. To do so overlooks a crucial dimension, namely the fact that the best we can know about cases will depend on some welldefined strategy of diagnostic effort, such as testing in the case of COVID-19. We will present a newly developed indicator to observe harm, the acceleration index, which is essentially an elasticity of cases in relation to tests. We will discuss what efficiency of testing means and propose that the corresponding health policy goal should be to find ever fewer cases with an ever-greater diagnostic effort. Easy and low-threshold testing will also be a means to give back people’s sovereignty to lead their life in an “open” as opposed to “locked-down” society.

  • Publication . Article . Preprint . 2020
    Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Alexandre J. Vivanti; Christelle Vauloup-Fellous; Sophie Prevot; Veronique Zupan; Cecile Suffee; Jeremy Do Cao; Alexandra Benachi; Daniele De Luca;
    Publisher: Nature Portfolio
    Country: France

    SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is the first pandemic of the century. SARS-CoV-2 infection is transmitted through droplets; other transmission routes are hypothesized but not confirmed. So far, it is unclear whether and how SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted from the mother to the fetus. We demonstrate the transplacental transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a neonate born to a mother infected in the last trimester and presenting with neurological compromise. The transmission is confirmed by comprehensive virological and pathological investigations. In detail, SARS-CoV-2 causes: (1) maternal viremia, (2) placental infection demonstrated by immunohistochemistry and very high viral load; placental inflammation, as shown by histological examination and immunohistochemistry, and (3) neonatal viremia following placental infection. The neonate is studied clinically, through imaging, and followed up. The neonate presented with neurological manifestations, similar to those described in adult patients. Congenital infection of SARS-CoV-2 has been described, but the transmission routes remain unclear. Here, the authors report evidence of transplacental transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a neonate born to a mother infected in the last trimester and presenting with neurological compromise.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Laura Di Domenico; Giulia Pullano; Chiara E. Sabbatini; Pierre-Yves Boëlle; Vittoria Colizza;
    Country: France
    Project: ANR | DataRedux (ANR-19-CE46-0008), EC | MOOD (874850), ANR | SPHINx (ANR-17-CE36-0008)

    As countries in Europe implement strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic, different options are chosen regarding schools. Through a stochastic age-structured transmission model calibrated to the observed epidemic in Île-de-France in the first wave, we explored scenarios of partial, progressive, or full school reopening. Given the uncertainty on children’s role, we found that reopening schools after lockdown may increase COVID-19 cases, yet protocols exist to keep the epidemic controlled. Under a scenario with stable epidemic activity if schools were closed, reopening pre-schools and primary schools would lead to up to 76% [67, 84]% occupation of ICU beds if no other school level reopened, or if middle and high schools reopened later. Immediately reopening all school levels may overwhelm the ICU system. Priority should be given to pre- and primary schools allowing younger children to resume learning and development, whereas full attendance in middle and high schools is not recommended for stable or increasing epidemic activity. Large-scale test and trace is required to keep the epidemic under control. Ex-post assessment shows that progressive reopening of schools, limited attendance, and strong adoption of preventive measures contributed to a decreasing epidemic after lifting the first lockdown. The role of children in the spread of COVID-19 is not fully understood, and the circumstances under which schools should be opened are therefore debated. Here, the authors demonstrate protocols by which schools in France can be safely opened without overwhelming the healthcare system.

Advanced search in
Research products
arrow_drop_down
Searching FieldsTerms
Any field
arrow_drop_down
includes
arrow_drop_down
Include:
581 Research products, page 1 of 59
  • English
    Authors: 
    Abidi, Hani; Amami, Rim; Trabelsi, Chiraz;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The model descibes the epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 in a population after vaccination. Using the maximum principale, our goal is to prove the existence of an optimal strategy such that it minimize the number of infected people after vaccination. Finally, some numerical results are provided.

  • Publication . Other literature type . Article . 2020
    Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Ali Moussaoui; Pierre Auger;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Algeria was reported on 25 February 2020. Since then, it has progressed rapidly and the number of cases grow exponentially each day. In this article, we utilize SEIR modelling to forecast COVID-19 outbreak in Algeria under two scenarios by using the real-time data from March 01 to April 10, 2020. In the first scenario: no control measures are put into place, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Algeria is 2.1, the number of new cases in Algeria will peak from around late May to early June and up to 82% of the Algerian population will likely contract the coronavirus. In the second scenario, at a certain date T, drastic control measures are taken, people are being advised to self-isolate or to quarantine and will be able to leave their homes only if necessary. We use SEIR model with fast change between fully protected and risky states. We prove that the final size of the epidemic depends strongly on the cumulative number of cases at the date when we implement intervention and on the fraction of the population in confinement. Our analysis shows that the longer we wait, the worse the situation will be and this very quickly produces.

  • Publication . Article . Preprint . 2020
    Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Alberto Alemanno;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The European response to COVID-19 has revealed an inconvenient truth. Despite having integrated public health concerns across all its policies – be it agriculture, consumer protection, or security –, the Union cannot directly act to save people’s lives. Only member states can do so. Yet when they adopted unilateral measures to counter the spread of the virus, those proved not only ineffective but also disruptive on vital supply chains, by ultimately preventing the flow of essential goods and people across the Union. These fragmented efforts in tackling cross-border health threats have almost immediately prompted political calls for the urgent creation of a European Health Union. Yet this call raises more questions than answers. With the aim to offer a rigorous and timely blueprint to decision-makers and the public at large, this Special Issue of the European Journal of Risk Regulation contextualizes such a new political project within the broader constitutional and institutional framework of EU public health law and policy. By introducing the Special, this paper argues that unless the envisaged Health Union will tackle the root causes of what prevented the Union from effectively responding to COVID-19 – the divergent health capacity across the Union –, it might fall short of its declared objective of strengthening the EU’resilience for cross-border health threats.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Achraf Ammar; Michael Brach; Khaled Trabelsi; Hamdi Chtourou; Omar Boukhris; Liwa Masmoudi; Bassem Bouaziz; Ellen Bentlage; Daniella How; Mona A. Ahmed; +47 more
    Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
    Country: France

    AbstractBackgroundPublic health recommendations and governmental measures during the COVID-19 pandemic have enforced numerous restrictions on daily living including social distancing, isolation and home confinement. While these measures are imperative to abate the spreading of COVID-19, the impact of these restrictions on health behaviours and lifestyle at home is undefined. Therefore, an international online survey was launched in April 2020 in seven languages to elucidate the behavioral and lifestyle consequences of COVID-19 restrictions. This report presents the preliminary results from the first thousand responders on physical activity (PA) and nutrition behaviours.MethodsThirty-five research organisations from Europe, North-Africa, Western Asia and the Americas promoted the survey through their networks to the general society, in English, German, French, Arabic, Spanish, Portugese, and Slovenian languages. Questions were presented in a differential format with questions related to responses “before” and “during” confinement conditions.Results1047 replies (54% women) from Asia (36%), Africa (40%), Europe (21%) and other (3%) were included into a general analysis. The COVID-19 home confinement had a negative effect on all intensities of PA (vigorous, moderate, walking and overall). Conversely, daily sitting time increased from 5 to 8 hours per day. Additionally, food consumption and meal patterns (the type of food, eating out of control, snacks between meals, number of meals) were more unhealthy during confinement with only alcohol binge drink decreasing significantly.ConclusionWhile isolation is a necessary measure to protect public health, our results indicate that it alters physical activity and eating behaviours in a direction that would compromise health. A more detailed analysis of survey data will allow for a segregation of these responses in different age groups, countries and other subgroups which will help develop bespoke interventions to mitigate the negative lifestyle behaviors manifest during the COVID-19 confinement.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Margaret Chitiga; Martin Henseler; Ramos Mabugu; Helene Maisonnave;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    To contribute towards addressing the problem of relatively few general equilibrium studies focusing on gender impacts of disease pandemics, this paper uses a gendered Computable General Equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model to study the short run economic effects of COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. A mild and severe scenario is run to represent the pandemic. Findings suggest that while COVID-19 leads to negative economic effects irrespective of scenario, female-headed households bear a disproportionately higher burden of the brunt. Because women tend to be more concentrated in employment in sectors that are hurt the most by COVID-19 response measures as well as that they predominate in unskilled categories, the simulation results show that women suffer disproportionately more from higher unemployment than their male counterparts though the differences are not as pronounced. The poverty outcomes show worsened vulnerability for female-headed households given that, even prior to the pandemic, poverty was already higher amongst women. These results are important in informing evidence-based responses by government to the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Stuart P. Weisberg; Thomas J. Connors; Yun Zhu; Matthew R. Baldwin; Wen-Hsuan W. Lin; Sandeep N. Wontakal; Peter A. Szabo; Steven B. Wells; Pranay Dogra; Joshua I. Gray; +18 more
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
    Project: NIH | Development of therapeuti... (1R01NS105699-01A1), NIH | Bioinformatics (5P01AI106697-02), NIH | Development of Localized ... (1K23AI141686-01)

    ABSTRACTClinical manifestations of COVID-19 caused by the novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 are associated with age. While children are largely spared from severe respiratory disease, they can present with a SARS-CoV-2-associated multisystem inflammatory syndrome (MIS-C) similar to Kawasaki’s disease. Here, we show distinct antibody (Ab) responses in children with MIS-C compared to adults with severe COVID-19 causing acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), and those who recovered from mild disease. There was a reduced breadth and specificity of anti-SARS-CoV-2-specific antibodies in MIS-C patients compared to the COVID patient groups; MIS-C predominantly generated IgG Abs specific for the Spike (S) protein but not for the nucleocapsid (N) protein, while the COVID-19 cohorts had anti-S IgG, IgM and IgA Abs, as well as anti-N IgG Abs. Moreover, MIS-C patients had reduced neutralizing activity compared to both COVID-19 cohorts, indicating a reduced protective serological response. These results suggest a distinct infection course and immune response in children and adults who develop severe disease, with implications for optimizing treatments based on symptom and age.

  • English
    Authors: 
    Collin, Annabelle; Prague, Mélanie; Moireau, Philippe;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    International audience; Estimation of dynamical systems - in particular, identification of their parameters - is fundamental in computational biology, e.g., pharmacology, virology, or epidemiology, to reconcile model runs with available measurements. Unfortunately, the mean and variance priorities of the parameters must be chosen very appropriately to balance our distrust of the measurements when the data are sparse or corrupted by noise. Otherwise, the identification procedure fails. One option is to use repeated measurements collected in configurations with common priorities - for example, with multiple subjects in a clinical trial or clusters in an epidemiological investigation. This shared information is beneficial and is typically modeled in statistics using nonlinear mixed-effects models. In this paper, we present a data assimilation method that is compatible with such a mixed-effects strategy without being compromised by the potential curse of dimensionality. We define population-based estimators through maximum likelihood estimation. We then develop an equivalent robust sequential estimator for large populations based on filtering theory that sequentially integrates data. Finally, we limit the computational complexity by defining a reduced-order version of this population-based Kalman filter that clusters subpopulations with common observational backgrounds. The performance of the resulting algorithm is evaluated against classical pharmacokinetics benchmarks. Finally, the versatility of the proposed method is tested in an epidemiological study using real data on the hospitalisation of COVID-19 patients in the regions and departments of France.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Christelle Baunez; Mickael Degoulet; Stéphane Luchini; Patrick A. Pintus; Miriam Teschl;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
    Project: ANR | AMSE (EUR) (ANR-17-EURE-0020)

    Even though much has been learned about the new pathogen SARS-CoV-2 since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, a lot of uncertainty remains. In this paper we argue that what is important to know under uncertainty is whether harm accelerates and whether health policies achieve deceleration of harm. For this, we need to see cases in relation to diagnostic effort and not to look at indicators based on cases only, such as a number of widely used epidemiological indicators, including the reproduction number, do. To do so overlooks a crucial dimension, namely the fact that the best we can know about cases will depend on some welldefined strategy of diagnostic effort, such as testing in the case of COVID-19. We will present a newly developed indicator to observe harm, the acceleration index, which is essentially an elasticity of cases in relation to tests. We will discuss what efficiency of testing means and propose that the corresponding health policy goal should be to find ever fewer cases with an ever-greater diagnostic effort. Easy and low-threshold testing will also be a means to give back people’s sovereignty to lead their life in an “open” as opposed to “locked-down” society.

  • Publication . Article . Preprint . 2020
    Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Alexandre J. Vivanti; Christelle Vauloup-Fellous; Sophie Prevot; Veronique Zupan; Cecile Suffee; Jeremy Do Cao; Alexandra Benachi; Daniele De Luca;
    Publisher: Nature Portfolio
    Country: France

    SARS-CoV-2 outbreak is the first pandemic of the century. SARS-CoV-2 infection is transmitted through droplets; other transmission routes are hypothesized but not confirmed. So far, it is unclear whether and how SARS-CoV-2 can be transmitted from the mother to the fetus. We demonstrate the transplacental transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a neonate born to a mother infected in the last trimester and presenting with neurological compromise. The transmission is confirmed by comprehensive virological and pathological investigations. In detail, SARS-CoV-2 causes: (1) maternal viremia, (2) placental infection demonstrated by immunohistochemistry and very high viral load; placental inflammation, as shown by histological examination and immunohistochemistry, and (3) neonatal viremia following placental infection. The neonate is studied clinically, through imaging, and followed up. The neonate presented with neurological manifestations, similar to those described in adult patients. Congenital infection of SARS-CoV-2 has been described, but the transmission routes remain unclear. Here, the authors report evidence of transplacental transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in a neonate born to a mother infected in the last trimester and presenting with neurological compromise.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Laura Di Domenico; Giulia Pullano; Chiara E. Sabbatini; Pierre-Yves Boëlle; Vittoria Colizza;
    Country: France
    Project: ANR | DataRedux (ANR-19-CE46-0008), EC | MOOD (874850), ANR | SPHINx (ANR-17-CE36-0008)

    As countries in Europe implement strategies to control the COVID-19 pandemic, different options are chosen regarding schools. Through a stochastic age-structured transmission model calibrated to the observed epidemic in Île-de-France in the first wave, we explored scenarios of partial, progressive, or full school reopening. Given the uncertainty on children’s role, we found that reopening schools after lockdown may increase COVID-19 cases, yet protocols exist to keep the epidemic controlled. Under a scenario with stable epidemic activity if schools were closed, reopening pre-schools and primary schools would lead to up to 76% [67, 84]% occupation of ICU beds if no other school level reopened, or if middle and high schools reopened later. Immediately reopening all school levels may overwhelm the ICU system. Priority should be given to pre- and primary schools allowing younger children to resume learning and development, whereas full attendance in middle and high schools is not recommended for stable or increasing epidemic activity. Large-scale test and trace is required to keep the epidemic under control. Ex-post assessment shows that progressive reopening of schools, limited attendance, and strong adoption of preventive measures contributed to a decreasing epidemic after lifting the first lockdown. The role of children in the spread of COVID-19 is not fully understood, and the circumstances under which schools should be opened are therefore debated. Here, the authors demonstrate protocols by which schools in France can be safely opened without overwhelming the healthcare system.

Send a message
How can we help?
We usually respond in a few hours.