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URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.cnrs.fr; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2020.27 - ISSN : 1955-611X; It has been claimed that climate policies can be evaluated by the Pareto principle. However, climate policies lead to different identities and different numbers of future people. Even if one assumes that the number of future people is countably infinite independently of policy choice, the problem is that there exists no natural one-to-one correspondence between the components of the compared alternatives. This non-existence means that the components of streams are indexed by natural numbers that do not correspond to particular people, making a case for impartiakity in the sense of Strong anonymity. Strong anonymity is incompatible with Strong Pareto. The paper re-examines this incompatibility and investigates how far sensitivity for the well-being at any one component can be extended without contradicting Strong anonymity. We show that Strong anonymity combined with four rather innocent axioms has two consequences: (i) There can be sensitivity for the well-being at a particular component of the stream if and only if a finite set of people have higher well-beings, and (ii) adding people to the population cannot have positive social value.

URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.cnrs.fr/publications/; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2020.15R - ISSN : 1955-611XVersion originale Septembre 2019, révisée en Mars 2021; Maximising expected value is the classic doctrine in choice theory under empirical uncertainty, and a prominent proposal in the emerging philosophical literature on normative uncertainty, i.e., uncertainty about values. But how should Expectationalism be stated in general, when we can face both uncertainties simultaneously, as is common in life? Surprisingly, different possibilities arise, ranging from Ex-Ante to Ex-Post Expectationalism, with several hybrid versions. Expectationalism thus faces the classic dilemma between ex-ante and ex-post approaches. Different expectational theories reach diverging evaluations, use different modes of reasoning, and take different attitudes to risk; but they converge undre an interesting (necessary and sufficient) condition. We relate choice under normative uncertainty to choice by Harsany's impartial observer' and Rawls's person behind the 'veil of ignorance', who are uncertain about their own identity and values; and we relate Expectationalism under normative uncertainty to Harsanyi's linear approach to aggregating values of different individuals or identities.

We describe some instrument-based practices of navigation on the high seas, and we introducethe notion of instrumental negotiation and navigational shortcut. We assess the role of astronomicnavigation in second-to-second steering and in wayfinding. We detail a number of observations concerningtime, space representation, redundancy as a facilitator, and the modulation of social interactions.

Summary:The European economic union is incomplete, which makes it vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. The opportunity to move forward in the integration process was highly debated even before the Covid-19 crisis.Yet the diverging views among countries and political groups are often considered as an obstacle on the path to required agreements for completing the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We present the results of a survey conducted in 2018 among members of national parliaments (MPs) in France, Germany and Italy on European integration in policy fields related to risk-sharing and budgetary institutions, asking for their opinion on proposals such as the creation of a European Unemployment Insurance (EUI), Eurobonds, or an EU tax. We find that nationality and political groups are key determinants of support for such proposals, the latter being the strongest. We describe how opinions are divided and try to identify policy proposals which could gather enough political support. The agreement reached on July 21st, 2020 at the last European summit includes financial transfers between States and the creation of Eurobonds, thus representing an important institutional move and an application of some of the reforms suggested by our survey. Yet what has been decided upon is only temporary and leaves open the question of the future of European integration.Key points: At first glance, the answers show diverging opinions on most questions between countries with Italy supporting more integration, and Germany opposing it for most proposals. France has an intermediate position, leaning towards Italy. A breakdown of the results by party affiliation shows a more nuanced picture. For cross-country comparisons, we build a party indicator using the affiliation of national parties to European political groups. National MPs associated with the group of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) at the European level show strong support for the creation of new fiscal institutions and a new EU tax, and for risk sharing institutions (European Unemployment Insurance, Eurobonds). On the contrary, MPs associated with the European People’s Party (EPP) are mildly positive or against risk-sharing and fiscal institutions. National MPs affiliated to Renew Europe hold similar views to S&D MPs, but are less supportive of risk-sharing mechanisms. There is a substantial diversity of positions between the German AfD, the Italian Lega and the 5-star movement: the three parties have diverging views on the future of integration. Our econometric analysis shows that party affiliations have more explanatory power than nationality for all questions. This clearly shows that outcomes of national parliamentary elections could change the overall support for any issue.; Summary:The European economic union is incomplete, which makes it vulnerable to macroeconomic shocks. The opportunity to move forward in the integration process was highly debated even before the Covid-19 crisis.Yet the diverging views among countries and political groups are often considered as an obstacle on the path to required agreements for completing the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). We present the results of a survey conducted in 2018 among members of national parliaments (MPs) in France, Germany and Italy on European integration in policy fields related to risk-sharing and budgetary institutions, asking for their opinion on proposals such as the creation of a European Unemployment Insurance (EUI), Eurobonds, or an EU tax. We find that nationality and political groups are key determinants of support for such proposals, the latter being the strongest. We describe how opinions are divided and try to identify policy proposals which could gather enough political support. The agreement reached on July 21st, 2020 at the last European summit includes financial transfers between States and the creation of Eurobonds, thus representing an important institutional move and an application of some of the reforms suggested by our survey. Yet what has been decided upon is only temporary and leaves open the question of the future of European integration.Key points: At first glance, the answers show diverging opinions on most questions between countries with Italy supporting more integration, and Germany opposing it for most proposals. France has an intermediate position, leaning towards Italy. A breakdown of the results by party affiliation shows a more nuanced picture. For cross-country comparisons, we build a party indicator using the affiliation of national parties to European political groups. National MPs associated with the group of Socialists and Democrats (S&D) at the European level show strong support for the creation of new fiscal institutions and a new EU tax, and for risk sharing institutions (European Unemployment Insurance, Eurobonds). On the contrary, MPs associated with the European People’s Party (EPP) are mildly positive or against risk-sharing and fiscal institutions. National MPs affiliated to Renew Europe hold similar views to S&D MPs, but are less supportive of risk-sharing mechanisms. There is a substantial diversity of positions between the German AfD, the Italian Lega and the 5-star movement: the three parties have diverging views on the future of integration. Our econometric analysis shows that party affiliations have more explanatory power than nationality for all questions. This clearly shows that outcomes of national parliamentary elections could change the overall support for any issue.

This is a position paper presented at CHI2021 Workshop called "Towards Explainable and Trustworthy Autonomous Physical Systems".; The spread of AI-embedded systems involved in human decision making makes it critical to build these systems according to trustworthiness standards. To understand whether this goal was achieved, users' trust in these systems must be studied. However, empirically investigating trust is challenging. One reason is the lack of standard protocols to design trust experiments. To get an overview of the current practices in the experimental protocols for studying trust in the context of AI-assisted decision making, we conducted a systematic review of such papers. We annotated, categorized, and analyzed them along the constitutive elements of an experimental protocol (i.e., participants, task). Drawing from empirical practices in social and cognitive studies on human-human trust, we provide practical guidelines and research opportunities to improve the methodology of studying Human-AI trust in decision-making contexts. In this workshop, we would like to start the discussion about how these guidelines and research questions can be used in the laboratory and in the wild.

URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.univ-paris1.fr/documents-de-travail-du-ces/; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2018.38 - ISSN : 1955-611X; We introduce a new methodology that enables the detection of onset of convergence towards Nash equilibria, in simple repeated-games with infinite large strategy spaces. The method works by constraining on a special and finite subset of strategies. We illustrate how the method can predict (in special time periods) with a high success rate the action of participants in a series of experiments.

URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.cnrs.fr/publications/; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2020.08 - ISSN : 1955-611X; We provide an axiomatic characterization of recursive Maxmin preferences that stem from (possibly) incomplete preferences representing choices that are justified by hard evidence. The decision-maker disposes of objective probabilistic information that may induce dynamically inconsistent behavior. To ensure that her choices be informed by objective information, dynamically consistent, and ambiguity averse, she constructs her subjective set of priors as the rectangular hull of the objective information set. The characterization builds upon two axioms that naturally combine these three requirements in a behavioral way. Moreover, our main result suggests a principled justification for the use of recursive Maxmin preferences in applications to dynamic choice problems.; Nous proposons une caractérisation axiomatique des préférences Maxmin récursives sur la base de préférences incomplètes représentant les choix qui peuvent être justifiés par des preuves irréfutables. Le décideur dispose d'information probabiliste objective qui peut induite en général des comportements dynamiquement incohérents. De façon à faire en sorte que ses choix soient à la fois sensibles à l'information objective, dynamiquement cohérents et averses à l'ambiguïté, il adopte comme ensemble subjectif de priors l'enveloppe rectangulaire de l'information objective. Notre caractérisation repose sur deux axiomes qui combinent de manière naturelle ces trois exigences de manière comportementale. De plus, notre résultat principal suggère un principe de justification de l'utilisation des préférences Maxmin récursives dans les applications aux problèmes de choix dynamique.

International audience; More than three years after the unexpected Brexit vote of June 2016, there is still no exit agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Although the conditions of Brexit and the corresponding economic consequences are still unknown, the referendum has already had a real economic impact. The long discussion surrounding Brexit can be seen as a long-lasting uncertainty shock, whiach has affected firms’ investment decisions.In this note we use highly detailed customs data before and after the vote to measure the impact of Brexit on French firms’ exports to the UK. We find that the referendum had no effect on average on the value of exports but depressed export growth in sectors such as transportation or chemical industries which are more upstream in value chains. The number of new trade relationships involving French exporters and British importers has significantly declined after the Brexit vote, in comparison with other destinations. This is consistent with the uncertainty shock reducing French firms’ investment in their customer base, which is likely to penalize French exporters in the future. These results are suggestive evidence that uncertainty has a real cost and that any decision of delaying the Brexit further should compare the benefit of reaching a better deal with the economic cost induced by uncertainty. It is also important that the next EU-UK trade agreement should guarantee the stability and predictability of the trade policy that European exporters will have to face.

URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.cnrs.fr; Document de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2020.26 - ISSN : 1955-611X; Climate change-related mortality may strongly affect human well-being. By reducing life expectancy, it reduces the well-being of some infividuals. This may exacerbate existing inequalities: ex-ante inequality among people in different groups or regions of the world; ex-post inequality in experienced well-being by people in the same generation. But mortality may also reduce total population size by preventing some individuals from having children. This raises the population-ethical problem of how total population size should be valued. This paper proposes a methodology to measure te welfare effects of climate change through population and inequality change. We illustrate the methodology using a climate-economy integrated assessment model involving endogenous population change due to climate change-related mortality.