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Heat transport in natural porous media, such as aquifers or streambeds, is generally modeled assuming local thermal equilibrium (LTE) between the fluid and solid phases. Yet, the mathematical and hydrogeological conditions and implications of this simplification have not been fully established for natural porous media. To quantify the occurrence and effects of local thermal disequilibrium during heat transport, we systematically compared thermal breakthrough curves from a LTE with those calculated using a local thermal nonequilibrium (LTNE) model, explicitly allowing for different temperatures in the fluid and solid phases. For the LTNE model, we developed a new correlation for the heat transfer coefficient representative of the conditions in natural porous aquifers using six published experimental results. By conducting an extensive parameter study (>50,000 simulations), we show that LTNE effects do not occur for grain sizes smaller than 7 mm or for groundwater flow velocities that are slower than 1.6 m day−1. The limits of LTE are likely exceeded in gravel aquifers or in the vicinity of pumped bores. For such aquifers, the use of a LTE model can lead to an underestimation of the effective thermal dispersion by a factor of up to 30 or higher, while the advective thermal velocity remains unaffected for most conditions. Based on a regression analysis of the simulation results, we provide a criterion which can be used to determine if LTNE effects are expected for particular conditions.

The rate of biogeochemical processing associated with natural degradation and transformation processes in the hyporheic zone (HZ) is one of the largest uncertainties in predicting nutrient fluxes. We present a lumped parameter model that can be used to quantify the mass loss for nitrate in the HZ operating at the scale of river reaches to the entire catchments. The model is based on using exposure times (ET) to account for the effective timescales of reactive transport in the HZ. Reach scale ET distributions are derived by removing the portion of hyporheic residence times (RT) associated with flow through the oxic zone. The model was used to quantify nitrate removal for two scenarios: (1) a 100 m generic river reach and (2) a small agricultural catchment in Brittany (France). For the field site, hyporheic RT were derived from measured in-stream 222Rn activities and mass balance modeling. Simulations were carried out using different types of RT distributions (exponential, power law, and gamma-type) for which ET were derived. Mass loss of nitrate in the HZ for the field site ranged from 0 to 0.45 kg day−1 depending on the RT distribution and the availability of oxygen in the streambed sediments. Simulations with power law ET distribution models only show very little removal of nitrate due to the heavy weighting toward shorter flow paths that are confined to the oxic sediments. Based on the simulation results, we suggest that using ET will likely lead to more realistic estimates for nutrient removal in river and stream networks.

During the DACCIWA (Dynamics–Aerosol–Chemistry–Cloud Interactions in West Africa) field campaign ∼900 radiosondes were launched from 12 stations in southern West Africa from 15 June to 31 July 2016. Subsequently, data-denial experiments were conducted using the Integrated Forecasting System of the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to assess the radiosondes' impact on the quality of analyses and forecasts. As observational reference, satellite-based estimates of rainfall and outgoing long-wave radiation (OLR) as well as the radiosonde measurements themselves are used. With regard to the analyses, the additional observations show positive impacts on winds throughout the troposphere and lower stratosphere, while large lower-tropospheric cold and dry biases are hardly reduced. Nonetheless, downstream, that is farther inland from the radiosonde stations, we find a significant increase (decrease) in low-level night-time temperatures (monsoon winds) when incorporating the DACCIWA observations, suggesting a possible linkage via weaker cold air advection from the Gulf of Guinea. The associated lower relative humidity leads to reduced cloud cover in the DACCIWA analysis. Closer to the coast and over Benin and Togo, DACCIWA observations increase low-level specific humidity and precipitable water, possibly due to changes in advection and vertical mixing. During daytime, differences between the two analyses are generally smaller at low levels. With regard to the forecasts, the impact of the additional observations is lost after a day or less. Moderate improvements occur in low-level wind and temperature but also in rainfall over the downstream Sahel, while impacts on OLR are ambiguous. The changes in precipitation appear to also affect high-level cloud cover and the tropical easterly jet. The overall rather small observation impact suggests that model and data assimilation deficits are the main limiting factors for better forecasts in West Africa. The new observations and physical understanding from DACCIWA can hopefully contribute to reducing these issues.

https://doi.org/10 .1594/PANGAEA.920208 research

Brittle deformation in rocks depends upon loading rate; with increasing rates, typically greater than ~102 s−1, rocks become significantly stronger and undergo increasingly severe fragmentation. Dynamic conditions required for rate-dependent brittle failure may be reached during impact events, seismogenic rupture, and landslides. Material characteristics and fragment characterization of specific geomaterials from dynamic loading are only approximately known. Here we determine the characteristic strain rate for dynamic behavior in felsic crystalline rocks, including anisotropy, and describe the resulting fragments. Regardless of the type of felsic crystalline rock or anisotropy, the characteristic strain rate is the same within uncertainties for all tested materials, with an average value of 229 ± 81 s−1. Despite the lack of variation of the critical strain rate with lithology, we find that the degree of fragmentation as a function of strain rate varies depending on material. Scaled or not, the fragmentation results are inconsistent with current theoretical models of fragmentation. Additionally, we demonstrate that conditions during impact cratering, where the impactor diameter is less than ~100 m, are analogous to the experiments carried out here and therefore that dynamic strengthening and compressive fragmentation should be considered as important processes during impact cratering.

The Filchner‐Ronne Ice Shelf (FRIS) is characterized by moderate basal melt rates due to the near‐freezing waters that dominate the wide southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. We revisited the region in austral summer 2018 with detailed hydrographic and noble gas surveys along FRIS. The FRIS front was characterized by High Salinity Shelf Water (HSSW) in Ronne Depression, Ice Shelf Water (ISW) on its eastern flank, and an inflow of modified Warm Deep Water (mWDW) entering through Central Trough. Filchner Trough was dominated by Ronne HSSW‐sourced ISW, likely forced by a recently intensified circulation beneath FRIS due to enhanced sea ice production in the Ronne polynya since 2015. Glacial meltwater fractions and tracer‐based water mass dating indicate two separate ISW outflow cores, one hugging the Berkner slope after a two‐year travel time, and the other located in the central Filchner Trough following a ∼six year‐long transit through the FRIS cavity. Historical measurements indicate the presence of two distinct modes, in which water masses in Filchner Trough were dominated by either Ronne HSSW‐derived ISW (Ronne‐mode) or more locally derived Berkner‐HSSW (Berkner‐mode). While the dominance of these modes has alternated on interannual time scales, ocean densities in Filchner Trough have remained remarkably stable since the first surveys in 1980. Indeed, geostrophic velocities indicated outflowing ISW‐cores along the trough's western flank and onto Berkner Bank, which suggests that Ronne‐ISW preconditions Berkner‐HSSW production. The negligible density difference between Berkner‐ and Ronne‐mode waters indicates that each contributes cold dense shelf waters to protect FRIS against inflowing mWDW. Plain Language Summary: We visited the largest floating Antarctic ice shelf in the southern Weddell Sea in 2018 with an icebreaker expedition, and measured ocean temperature, salinity, meltwater content, and other parameters in front of the FRIS. We found that the ocean conditions were still dominated by the very cold and dense waters needed to protect the ice shelf from inflowing warm waters from the deep ocean. We compared the 2018 conditions with earlier surveys since the 1980s and concluded that, in spite of climate change and in contrast to other Antarctic regions, the water masses on the southern Weddell Sea shelf remained relatively stable overall. We found that most of the stations we visited near the Filchner Ice Shelf edge were dominated by cold ISW, which forms when water masses interact with the underside of the shelf ice. Our measurements helped improve our understanding regarding the currents and water masses on the southern Weddell Sea continental shelf. Key Points: Hydrographic status update with the first comprehensive CTD survey along the entire FRIS front since 1995. Strong and stable presence of High Salinity Shelf Water in Ronne Depression over decades. Dominance of Ronne‐sourced Ice Shelf Water in Filchner Trough in 2018 points to intensified sub‐FRIS circulation. Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100003207

We reconstructed the variability of the Earth's strongest hydrological system, the Indian monsoon, over the interval 6.24 to 4.91 Ma at International Ocean Discovery Program (IODP) Expedition 353 Site U1448 in the Andaman Sea. We integrated high-resolution benthic and planktic foraminiferal carbon and oxygen isotopes with Mg/Ca measurements of the mixed layer foraminifer Trilobatus sacculifer to reconstruct the isotopic composition of seawater (δ18Osw) and the gradient between planktic and benthic foraminiferal δ13C. A prominent increase in mixed layer temperatures of ~4°C occurred between 5.55 and 5.28 Ma, accompanied by a change from precession- to obliquity-driven variability in planktic δ18O and δ18Osw. We suggest that an intensified cross-equatorial transport of heat and moisture, paced by obliquity, led to increased summer monsoon precipitation during warm stages after 5.55 Ma. Transient cold stages were characterized by reduced mixed layer temperatures and summer monsoon failure, thus resembling late Pleistocene stadials. In contrast, an overall cooler background climate state with a strengthened biological pump prevailed prior to 5.55 Ma. These findings highlight the importance of internal feedback processes for the long-term evolution of the Indian monsoon.

This study provides a process-based perspective on the amplification of forecast uncertainty and forecast errors in ensemble forecasts. A case from the North Atlantic Waveguide and Downstream Impact Experiment that exhibits large forecast uncertainty is analysed. Two aspects of the ensemble behaviour are considered: (a) the mean divergence of the ensemble members, indicating the general amplification of forecast uncertainty, and (b) the divergence of the best and worst members, indicating extremes in possible error-growth scenarios. To analyse the amplification of forecast uncertainty, a tendency equation for the ensemble variance of potential vorticity (PV) is derived and partitioned into the contributions from individual processes. The amplification of PV variance is, on average for the midlatitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, dominated by near-tropopause dynamics. Locally, however, other processes can dominate the variance amplification, for example, in the region where tropical storm Karl interacts with the Rossby-wave pattern during extratropical transition. In this region, the variance amplification is dominated by upper-tropospheric divergence and tropospheric–deep interaction and is thereby mostly related to (moist baroclinic) cyclone development. The differences between the error growth in the best and worst ensemble members can, to a large part, be attributed to differences in the representation of cut-off evolution around 3 days, which subsequently amplifies substantially in the highly nonlinear region of the Rossby-wave pattern until 5 days. In terms of the processes, the differences in error growth are dominated by differences in the error growth by near-tropopause dynamics. The approach presented provides flow-dependent insight into the dynamics of forecast uncertainty and forecast errors and helps to understand better the different contributions of specific weather systems to the medium-range amplification of ensemble spread.

Plain Language Summary: Large‐scale atmospheric circulation modes influence regional climate variability. For example, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is a circulation mode closely linked to surface temperatures variations over Europe, Africa, and North America. However, under global warming, changes in regional climate variability and their relation to circulation modes (co‐variability) can evolve differently and disparately depending on timescales. Here, we use the theory of evolutionary spectra to quantify these nonstationary changes and present a novel approach to estimate such changes on various timescales. The estimation approach is based on a large ensemble of climate change simulations. We show that changes in the NAO and regional surface temperature variability and their relationships evolve differently on individual timescales. On 20‐year timescales, co‐variability between NAO and surface temperature weakens over high‐latitude lands surrounding the northern North Atlantic, whereas the corresponding co‐variability on shorter timescales strengthens over subtropical North Africa. These differing evolution and timescale‐dependent changes shed new light on the controlling factors of circulation‐induced regional changes. Taking them into account can lead to the improvement of future regional climate predictions. Regional climate variability is strongly related to large‐scale circulation modes. However, little is known about changes in their spectral characteristics under climate change. Here, we introduce piecewise evolutionary spectra to quantify time‐varying variability and co‐variability of climate variables, and use ensemble periodograms to estimate these spectra. By employing a large ensemble of climate change simulations, we show that changes in the variability and relationships of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and regional surface temperatures are disparate on individual timescales. The relation between NAO and surface temperature over high‐latitude lands weakens the most on 20‐year timescales compared to shorter timescales, whereas the relation between NAO and temperature over subtropical North Africa strengthens more on shorter timescales than on 20‐year timescales. These projected evolution and timescale‐dependent changes shed new light on the controlling factors of circulation‐induced regional changes. Accounting for them can lead to the improvement of future regional climate predictions. Key Points: We define piecewise evolutionary spectra (special case of evolutionary spectra) to quantify time‐varying second moments in a warming climate. We introduce ensemble periodograms derived from a large ensemble as consistent estimators of piecewise evolutionary spectra. We find time‐dependent and timescale‐dependent changes in relations between NAO and surface temperature. Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100001659 Max‐Planck‐Gesellschaft http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004189 EU Commission Horizon 2020: PRIMAVERA

The isotopic composition of Si in biogenic silica (BSi), such as opal buried in the oceans' sediments, has changed over time. Paleorecords suggest that the isotopic composition, described in terms of δ30Si, was generally much lower during glacial times than today. There is consensus that this variability is attributable to differing environmental conditions at the respective time of BSi production and sedimentation. The detailed links between environmental conditions and the isotopic composition of BSi in the sediments remain, however, poorly constrained. In this study, we explore the effects of a suite of offset boundary conditions during the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) on the isotopic composition of BSi archived in sediments in an Earth System Model of intermediate complexity (EMIC). Our model results suggest that a change in the isotopic composition of Si supply to the glacial ocean is sufficient to explain the observed overall low(er) glacial δ30Si in BSi. All other processes explored trigger model responses of either wrong sign or magnitude or are inconsistent with a recent estimate of bottom water oxygenation in the Atlantic Sector of the Southern Ocean. Caveats, mainly associated with generic uncertainties in today's pelagic biogeochemical modules, remain.