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International audience; Avant de se propager à l’échelle mondiale, l’épidémie de coronavirus est apparue dans la province du Hubei. Pour contenir la propagation du virus, le gouvernement chinois a imposé des mesures de quarantaine, entraînant un ralentissement de l’activité économique. Nous étudions ici la manière dont ce ralentissement de la production, initialement limité à la province de Hubei, se diffuse à l’économie mondiale via les chaînes de valeur internationales. La dépendance à l’égard des intrants chinois a augmenté de manière spectaculaire depuis le début des années 2000. De ce fait, la plupart des pays sont exposés au ralentissement de l’activité en Chine, à la fois directement via leurs importations de produits intermédiaires chinois et indirectement, du fait de la valeur ajoutée chinoise incorporée à d’autres intrants à la production. Cette note quantifie l’exposition totale de la France comparée à celle d’autres pays. Dans un premier temps, nous calculons la part de la valeur ajoutée chinoise dans la production française. Ensuite, nous utilisons des données au niveau des pays et des secteurs pour quantifier l’impact des mesures de quarantaine sur le PIB français.

System paper Ontology Alignment Evaluation Initiative 2017 Campaign; The YAM-BIO ontology alignment system is an extension of YAM++ but dedicated to aligning biomedical ontologies. YAM++ has successfully participated in several editions of the Ontology Alignment Evaluation Initiative (OAEI) between 2011 and 2013, but this is the first participation of YAM-BIO. The biomedical extension includes a new component that uses existing mappings between multiple biomedi-cal ontologies as background knowledge. In this short system paper, we present YAM-BIO's workflow and the results obtained in the Anatomy and Large Biomedical Ontologies tracks of the OAEI 2017 campaign. 1 Presentation of the YAM-BIO system 1.1 State, purpose, general statement YAM-BIO may be seen as an extension of YAM++ [5] that uses existing map-pings between multiple biomedical ontologies as background knowledge to enhance the matching results. The latest version of YAM++, which we reused in YAM-BIO, obtained excellent results in multiple Ontology Alignment Evaluation Initiative (OAEI) campaigns, especially in 2013 [11]. YAM++ did not participate more since then. Four years on from the last participation, our objective this year was to establish a comparison between the potential performance of a bio-customized YAM++, and state-of-the-art systems in matching biomedical ontologies. Over last OAEI campaigns, state-of-the-art systems such as AML [7] and LogMapBio [9] used specialized background knowledge to improve their results. More generally, the use of background knowledge –or indirect matching techniques– as recently allowed to obtain better results. YAM-BIO is an equivalent evolution of YAM++ in which we added a component that uses existing mappings as background knowledge. With YAM-BIO, we participated this year to the Anatomy and Large Biomedical Ontologies (Largebio) tracks.

Books of the Safecomp FastAbstract, 25th of september 2013, Toulouse, France. Marc-olivier Killijian, Editor; Each FastAbstract will have a 60 seconds short presentation on the 25th from 16:00. Then the posters will be presented until 17:30.

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URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.cnrs.fr/publications/ Voir aussi l'article basé sur ce document de travail paru dans "Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis (Routledge), 2021, 28 (2), pp.143-164. Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2020.16 - ISSN : 1955-611X International audience Leonard Savage famously contravened his own theory when first confronting the Allais Paradox, but then convinced himself that the had made an error. We examine the formal structure of Savage's ‘error-correcting’ reasoning in the light of (i) behavioural economists' claims to identify the latent preferences of individuals who violate conventional rationality requirements and (ii) John Broome's critique of arguments which presuppose that rationality requirements can be achieved through reasoning. We argue that Savage's reasoning is not vulnerable to Broome's critique, but does not provide support for the view that behavioural scientists can identify and counteract errors in people's choices.

The Messenger, vol. 179, p. 24-28; In the last 20 years, over the course of the Araucaria project, we have studied 20 very special eclipsing binary systems in the Large Magellanic Cloud (LMC). Based on these systems and our newly calibrated surface brightness-colour relation we have measured a distance to the LMC that is accurate to 1%. This is currently the best benchmark for cosmic distances and it will therefore impact several fields of astrophysics. In particular, it has allowed a determination of the Hubble constant with a precision of 1.9%.

URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.cnrs.fr/publications/Voir aussi l'article basé sur ce document de travail paru dans "Chaos, Solitons & Fractals", 143, 110521, 2021; Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2016.35 - ISSN : 1955-611X; Just like soldiers crossing a bridge in sync can lead to a catastrophic failure, we show via experiments, theory, and simulations, how synchronization in human decision making can lead to extreme outcomes. Individual decision making and risk taking are well known to be gender dependent. Much less is however understood about gender's impact on the creation of collective risk through aggregate decision making, where the decision of one individual can affect the decision making of other individuals, eventually leading to synchronization in behavior. To study the formation of collective risk created due to synchronization in human decision making, we have devised a series of experiments that can be analyzed and understood within a game theoretical framework. In the experiments each individual in groups of either men or women decide to buy or sell a financial asset based on an information set containing past price behavior. Risk can be generated collectively through coordination in the aggregate decision making, which leads to a price formation far from the fundamental value of the asset. Here we show how collective risks can be generated in groups of both genders, but the pathway to formation of collective risks happens through an individual risk taking which are different for groups composed of men respectively women. A priori we find that it is impossible to know whether a given group will engage in the formation of collective risk, but via a fluctuation based game theoretical framework we are able to estimate the likelihood that it will happen. Our results highlight some of the foundations for creation of excessive collective risks relevant for example in the understanding of financial systemic risks.

International audience; More than three years after the unexpected Brexit vote of June 2016, there is still no exit agreement between the United Kingdom and the European Union. Although the conditions of Brexit and the corresponding economic consequences are still unknown, the referendum has already had a real economic impact. The long discussion surrounding Brexit can be seen as a long-lasting uncertainty shock, whiach has affected firms’ investment decisions.In this note we use highly detailed customs data before and after the vote to measure the impact of Brexit on French firms’ exports to the UK. We find that the referendum had no effect on average on the value of exports but depressed export growth in sectors such as transportation or chemical industries which are more upstream in value chains. The number of new trade relationships involving French exporters and British importers has significantly declined after the Brexit vote, in comparison with other destinations. This is consistent with the uncertainty shock reducing French firms’ investment in their customer base, which is likely to penalize French exporters in the future. These results are suggestive evidence that uncertainty has a real cost and that any decision of delaying the Brexit further should compare the benefit of reaching a better deal with the economic cost induced by uncertainty. It is also important that the next EU-UK trade agreement should guarantee the stability and predictability of the trade policy that European exporters will have to face.

URL des Documents de travail : https://centredeconomiesorbonne.cnrs.fr; Document de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 2020.26 - ISSN : 1955-611X; Climate change-related mortality may strongly affect human well-being. By reducing life expectancy, it reduces the well-being of some infividuals. This may exacerbate existing inequalities: ex-ante inequality among people in different groups or regions of the world; ex-post inequality in experienced well-being by people in the same generation. But mortality may also reduce total population size by preventing some individuals from having children. This raises the population-ethical problem of how total population size should be valued. This paper proposes a methodology to measure te welfare effects of climate change through population and inequality change. We illustrate the methodology using a climate-economy integrated assessment model involving endogenous population change due to climate change-related mortality.