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5 Research products

  • 2014-2023
  • Open Access
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  • Research
  • European Commission
  • GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Van Loon, Anne F.; +87 Authors

    As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e., two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed, and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises: 1) detailed review style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; 2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterise management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts of all events; 3) a table of the indicators-of-change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators-of-change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses e.g. focused on causal links between risk management, changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al. 2023, link for review: https://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/panmetaworks/review/923c14519deb04f83815ce108b48dd2581d57b90ce069bec9c948361028b8c85/).

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Earth System Science...arrow_drop_down
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    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2023
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    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2023
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    https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2...
    Preprint . 2023
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Article . 2023
    Data sources: NARCIS
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      Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
      Other literature type . 2023
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      Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
      Other literature type . 2023
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2...
      Preprint . 2023
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
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      Article . 2023
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    Authors: Arno Zang; Peter Niemz; Sebastian von Specht; Günter Zimmermann; +3 Authors

    In this article, a high-resolution acoustic emission sensor, accelerometer, and broadband seismometer array data set is made available and described in detail from in situ experiments performed at Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in May and June 2015. The main goal of the hydraulic stimulation tests in a horizontal borehole at 410 m depth in naturally fractured granitic rock mass is to demonstrate the technical feasibility of generating multi-stage heat exchangers in a controlled way superiorly to former massive stimulations applied in enhanced geothermal projects. A set of six, sub-parallel hydraulic fractures is propagated from an injection borehole drilled parallel to minimum horizontal in situ stress and is monitored by an extensive complementary sensor array implemented in three inclined monitoring boreholes and the nearby tunnel system. Three different fluid injection protocols are tested: constant water injection, progressive cyclic injection, and cyclic injection with a hydraulic hammer operating at 5 Hz frequency to stimulate a crystalline rock volume of size 30 m × 30 m × 30 m at depth. We collected geological data from core and borehole logs, fracture inspection data from an impression packer, and acoustic emission hypocenter tracking and tilt data, as well as quantified the permeability enhancement process. The data and interpretation provided through this publication are important steps in both upscaling laboratory tests and downscaling field tests in granitic rock in the framework of enhanced geothermal system research. Data described in this paper can be accessed at GFZ Data Services under https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.6.2023.004 (Zang et al., 2023).

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    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2023
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2024
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    https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2...
    Preprint . 2023
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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      Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
      Other literature type . 2023
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      Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
      Other literature type . 2024
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2...
      Preprint . 2023
      License: CC BY
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Leins, A.; Vieth-Hillebrand, A.; Bregnard, D.; Günther, K.; +2 Authors

    This data was collected to write an extensive review on organic compounds in geothermal fluids as part of the REFLECT (Redefining geothermal fluid properties at extreme conditions to optimize future geothermal energy extraction). The data is mainly focussed on geothermal sites were organic compound data was reported in the literature. It includes data from the literature (Feldbusch, 2016; Vetter, 2012; Brehme et al., 2019; Westphal et al., 2019; Sanjuan et al., 2016) as well as own data that was analysed at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in section 3.2 (Organic Geochemistry). It comprises 130 samples from 19 different sites including DOC, organic acid anion as well as main inorganic anion concentrations, well depths, and reservoir temperatures of various geothermal sites in Europe. Due to confidentiality agreements Site names are all given in ID’s which are fully explained in the publication “Organic compounds in geothermal fluids – a review” when available. Sample ID’s are also given if the samples, both from the literature or own samples were measured at GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement nº 850626 (REFLECT).

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    Authors: Shevchenko, A.; Dvigalo, V.; Walter, T.; Mania, R.;

    Decades of photogrammetric records at Bezymianny, one of the most active volcanoes on Earth, allow unveiling morphological changes, eruption and intrusion dynamics, erosion, lava and tephra deposition processes. This data publication releases an almost 7-decade long record, retrieved from airborne, satellite, and UAV platforms. The Kamchatkan Institute of Volcanology and Seismology released archives of high-resolution aerial images acquired in 1967-2013. We complemented the aerial datasets with 2017 Pleiades tri-stereo satellite and UAV images. The images were processed using Erdas Imagine and Photomod software. Here we publish nine quality-controlled point clouds in LAS format referenced to the WGS84 (UTM zone 57N). By comparing the point clouds we were able to describe topographic changes and calculate volumetric differences, details of which were further analyzed in Shevchenko et al. (2020, https://doi.org/...). The ~5-decade-long photogrammetric record was achieved by 8 aerial and 1 satellite-UAV datasets. The 8 sets of near nadir aerial photographs acquired in 1967, 1968, 1976, 1977, 1982, 1994, 2006, and 2013 were taken with various photogrammetry cameras dedicated for topographic analysis, specifically the AFA 41-10 camera (1967, 1968, 1976, and 1977; focal length = 99.086 mm), the TAFA 10 camera (1982 and 1994; focal length = 99.120 mm), and the AFA TE-140 camera (2006 and 2013; focal length = 139.536 mm). These analog cameras have all an 18×18 cm frame size. The acquisition flight altitude above the mean surface of Bezymianny varied from 1,500-2,500 m above mean surface elevation, translating up to >5,000 m above sea level. For photogrammetric processing, we used 3-4 consecutive shots that provided a 60-70% forward overlap. The analog photo negatives were digitized by scanning with Epson Perfection V750 Pro scanner in a resolution of 2,400 pixels/inch (approx. pixel (px) size = 0.01 mm). The mean scale within a single photograph depends on the distance to the surface and corresponds on average to 1:10,000-1:20,000. Thus, each px in the scanned image represents about 10-20 cm resolution on the ground. The coordinates of 12 ground control points were derived from a Theo 010B theodolite dataset collected at geodetic benchmarks during a 1977 fieldwork. These benchmarks were established on the slopes of Bezymianny before the 1977 aerial survey and then captured with the AFA 41-10 aerial camera. The most recent was a satellite dataset acquired on 2017-09-09 by the PHR 1B sensor aboard the Pleiades satellite (AIRBUS Defence & Space) operated by the French space agency (CNES). The forward, nadir and backward camera configuration allows revisiting any point on earth and was tasked for the acquisition of Bezymianny to provide a 0.5 m resolution panchromatic imagery dataset. In order to improve the Pleiades data, we complemented them with UAV data collected on 2017-07-29 with DJI Mavic Pro during fieldwork at Bezymianny. This data publication includes a description of the data (in pdf format) and the nine processed and controlled three-dimensional point clouds (in LAS format). The point clouds can be easily interpolated and imported into most open and commercially available geographic information system (GIS) software. Further details on data and data handling are provided in Shevchenko et al. (2020).

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    Authors: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Tabea Lissner; Erich M. Fischer; Jan Wohland; +9 Authors

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5°C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2°C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90% in 2050 and projected to decline to 70% by 2100 for a 1.5°C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9% to 17% between 1.5°C and 2°C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11%. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2°C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5°C scenario. In a 1.5°C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30% compared to a 2°C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Earth System Dynamics, 7 (2) ISSN:2190-4987 ISSN:2190-4979

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    NARCIS; Research@WUR
    Article . 2016
    License: CC BY
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    Research Collection
    Article . 2016
    License: CC BY
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    Earth System Dynamics
    Article . 2016
    Data sources: DOAJ-Articles
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    Earth System Dynamics
    Article . Preprint
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    Data sources: UnpayWall
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    Research Collection
    Research . 2015
    License: CC BY
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    https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6...
    Preprint . 2015
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
    Other literature type . 2018
    IIASA PURE
    Article . 2016
    Data sources: IIASA PURE
    ETH Zürich Research Collection
    Article . 2016
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Datacite
    ETH Zürich Research Collection
    Research . 2015
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Datacite
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      Article . 2016
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      Research Collection
      Article . 2016
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      Earth System Dynamics
      Article . 2016
      Data sources: DOAJ-Articles
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      Earth System Dynamics
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      Research . 2015
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6...
      Preprint . 2015
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
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      Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
      Other literature type . 2018
      IIASA PURE
      Article . 2016
      Data sources: IIASA PURE
      ETH Zürich Research Collection
      Article . 2016
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Datacite
      ETH Zürich Research Collection
      Research . 2015
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Kreibich, Heidi; Schröter, Kai; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Van Loon, Anne F.; +87 Authors

    As the adverse impacts of hydrological extremes increase in many regions of the world, a better understanding of the drivers of changes in risk and impacts is essential for effective flood and drought risk management and climate adaptation. However, there is currently a lack of comprehensive, empirical data about the processes, interactions and feedbacks in complex human-water systems leading to flood and drought impacts. Here we present a benchmark dataset containing socio-hydrological data of paired events, i.e., two floods or two droughts that occurred in the same area. The 45 paired events occurred in 42 different study areas and cover a wide range of socio-economic and hydro-climatic conditions. The dataset is unique in covering both floods and droughts, in the number of cases assessed, and in the quantity of socio-hydrological data. The benchmark dataset comprises: 1) detailed review style reports about the events and key processes between the two events of a pair; 2) the key data table containing variables that assess the indicators which characterise management shortcomings, hazard, exposure, vulnerability and impacts of all events; 3) a table of the indicators-of-change that indicate the differences between the first and second event of a pair. The advantages of the dataset are that it enables comparative analyses across all the paired events based on the indicators-of-change and allows for detailed context- and location-specific assessments based on the extensive data and reports of the individual study areas. The dataset can be used by the scientific community for exploratory data analyses e.g. focused on causal links between risk management, changes in hazard, exposure and vulnerability and flood or drought impacts. The data can also be used for the development, calibration and validation of socio-hydrological models. The dataset is available to the public through the GFZ Data Services (Kreibich et al. 2023, link for review: https://dataservices.gfz-potsdam.de/panmetaworks/review/923c14519deb04f83815ce108b48dd2581d57b90ce069bec9c948361028b8c85/).

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    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2023
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    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2023
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    https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2...
    Preprint . 2023
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Crossref
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    NARCIS
    Article . 2023
    Data sources: NARCIS
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      Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
      Other literature type . 2023
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      Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
      Other literature type . 2023
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/essd-2...
      Preprint . 2023
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Crossref
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      NARCIS
      Article . 2023
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Arno Zang; Peter Niemz; Sebastian von Specht; Günter Zimmermann; +3 Authors

    In this article, a high-resolution acoustic emission sensor, accelerometer, and broadband seismometer array data set is made available and described in detail from in situ experiments performed at Äspö Hard Rock Laboratory in May and June 2015. The main goal of the hydraulic stimulation tests in a horizontal borehole at 410 m depth in naturally fractured granitic rock mass is to demonstrate the technical feasibility of generating multi-stage heat exchangers in a controlled way superiorly to former massive stimulations applied in enhanced geothermal projects. A set of six, sub-parallel hydraulic fractures is propagated from an injection borehole drilled parallel to minimum horizontal in situ stress and is monitored by an extensive complementary sensor array implemented in three inclined monitoring boreholes and the nearby tunnel system. Three different fluid injection protocols are tested: constant water injection, progressive cyclic injection, and cyclic injection with a hydraulic hammer operating at 5 Hz frequency to stimulate a crystalline rock volume of size 30 m × 30 m × 30 m at depth. We collected geological data from core and borehole logs, fracture inspection data from an impression packer, and acoustic emission hypocenter tracking and tilt data, as well as quantified the permeability enhancement process. The data and interpretation provided through this publication are important steps in both upscaling laboratory tests and downscaling field tests in granitic rock in the framework of enhanced geothermal system research. Data described in this paper can be accessed at GFZ Data Services under https://doi.org/10.5880/GFZ.2.6.2023.004 (Zang et al., 2023).

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    Earth System Science Data (ESSD)
    Other literature type . 2023
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    Authors: Leins, A.; Vieth-Hillebrand, A.; Bregnard, D.; Günther, K.; +2 Authors

    This data was collected to write an extensive review on organic compounds in geothermal fluids as part of the REFLECT (Redefining geothermal fluid properties at extreme conditions to optimize future geothermal energy extraction). The data is mainly focussed on geothermal sites were organic compound data was reported in the literature. It includes data from the literature (Feldbusch, 2016; Vetter, 2012; Brehme et al., 2019; Westphal et al., 2019; Sanjuan et al., 2016) as well as own data that was analysed at the GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences in section 3.2 (Organic Geochemistry). It comprises 130 samples from 19 different sites including DOC, organic acid anion as well as main inorganic anion concentrations, well depths, and reservoir temperatures of various geothermal sites in Europe. Due to confidentiality agreements Site names are all given in ID’s which are fully explained in the publication “Organic compounds in geothermal fluids – a review” when available. Sample ID’s are also given if the samples, both from the literature or own samples were measured at GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement nº 850626 (REFLECT).

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    Authors: Shevchenko, A.; Dvigalo, V.; Walter, T.; Mania, R.;

    Decades of photogrammetric records at Bezymianny, one of the most active volcanoes on Earth, allow unveiling morphological changes, eruption and intrusion dynamics, erosion, lava and tephra deposition processes. This data publication releases an almost 7-decade long record, retrieved from airborne, satellite, and UAV platforms. The Kamchatkan Institute of Volcanology and Seismology released archives of high-resolution aerial images acquired in 1967-2013. We complemented the aerial datasets with 2017 Pleiades tri-stereo satellite and UAV images. The images were processed using Erdas Imagine and Photomod software. Here we publish nine quality-controlled point clouds in LAS format referenced to the WGS84 (UTM zone 57N). By comparing the point clouds we were able to describe topographic changes and calculate volumetric differences, details of which were further analyzed in Shevchenko et al. (2020, https://doi.org/...). The ~5-decade-long photogrammetric record was achieved by 8 aerial and 1 satellite-UAV datasets. The 8 sets of near nadir aerial photographs acquired in 1967, 1968, 1976, 1977, 1982, 1994, 2006, and 2013 were taken with various photogrammetry cameras dedicated for topographic analysis, specifically the AFA 41-10 camera (1967, 1968, 1976, and 1977; focal length = 99.086 mm), the TAFA 10 camera (1982 and 1994; focal length = 99.120 mm), and the AFA TE-140 camera (2006 and 2013; focal length = 139.536 mm). These analog cameras have all an 18×18 cm frame size. The acquisition flight altitude above the mean surface of Bezymianny varied from 1,500-2,500 m above mean surface elevation, translating up to >5,000 m above sea level. For photogrammetric processing, we used 3-4 consecutive shots that provided a 60-70% forward overlap. The analog photo negatives were digitized by scanning with Epson Perfection V750 Pro scanner in a resolution of 2,400 pixels/inch (approx. pixel (px) size = 0.01 mm). The mean scale within a single photograph depends on the distance to the surface and corresponds on average to 1:10,000-1:20,000. Thus, each px in the scanned image represents about 10-20 cm resolution on the ground. The coordinates of 12 ground control points were derived from a Theo 010B theodolite dataset collected at geodetic benchmarks during a 1977 fieldwork. These benchmarks were established on the slopes of Bezymianny before the 1977 aerial survey and then captured with the AFA 41-10 aerial camera. The most recent was a satellite dataset acquired on 2017-09-09 by the PHR 1B sensor aboard the Pleiades satellite (AIRBUS Defence & Space) operated by the French space agency (CNES). The forward, nadir and backward camera configuration allows revisiting any point on earth and was tasked for the acquisition of Bezymianny to provide a 0.5 m resolution panchromatic imagery dataset. In order to improve the Pleiades data, we complemented them with UAV data collected on 2017-07-29 with DJI Mavic Pro during fieldwork at Bezymianny. This data publication includes a description of the data (in pdf format) and the nine processed and controlled three-dimensional point clouds (in LAS format). The point clouds can be easily interpolated and imported into most open and commercially available geographic information system (GIS) software. Further details on data and data handling are provided in Shevchenko et al. (2020).

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    Authors: Carl-Friedrich Schleussner; Tabea Lissner; Erich M. Fischer; Jan Wohland; +9 Authors

    Robust appraisals of climate impacts at different levels of global-mean temperature increase are vital to guide assessments of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. The 2015 Paris Agreement includes a two-headed temperature goal: "holding the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels and pursuing efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C". Despite the prominence of these two temperature limits, a comprehensive overview of the differences in climate impacts at these levels is still missing. Here we provide an assessment of key impacts of climate change at warming levels of 1.5°C and 2°C, including extreme weather events, water availability, agricultural yields, sea-level rise and risk of coral reef loss. Our results reveal substantial differences in impacts between a 1.5°C and 2°C warming that are highly relevant for the assessment of dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. For heat-related extremes, the additional 0.5°C increase in global-mean temperature marks the difference between events at the upper limit of present-day natural variability and a new climate regime, particularly in tropical regions. Similarly, this warming difference is likely to be decisive for the future of tropical coral reefs. In a scenario with an end-of-century warming of 2°C, virtually all tropical coral reefs are projected to be at risk of severe degradation due to temperature-induced bleaching from 2050 onwards. This fraction is reduced to about 90% in 2050 and projected to decline to 70% by 2100 for a 1.5°C scenario. Analyses of precipitation-related impacts reveal distinct regional differences and hot-spots of change emerge. Regional reduction in median water availability for the Mediterranean is found to nearly double from 9% to 17% between 1.5°C and 2°C, and the projected lengthening of regional dry spells increases from 7 to 11%. Projections for agricultural yields differ between crop types as well as world regions. While some (in particular high-latitude) regions may benefit, tropical regions like West Africa, South-East Asia, as well as Central and northern South America are projected to face substantial local yield reductions, particularly for wheat and maize. Best estimate sea-level rise projections based on two illustrative scenarios indicate a 50cm rise by 2100 relative to year 2000-levels for a 2°C scenario, and about 10 cm lower levels for a 1.5°C scenario. In a 1.5°C scenario, the rate of sea-level rise in 2100 would be reduced by about 30% compared to a 2°C scenario. Our findings highlight the importance of regional differentiation to assess both future climate risks and different vulnerabilities to incremental increases in global-mean temperature. The article provides a consistent and comprehensive assessment of existing projections and a good basis for future work on refining our understanding of the difference between impacts at 1.5°C and 2°C warming. Earth System Dynamics, 7 (2) ISSN:2190-4987 ISSN:2190-4979

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    Earth System Dynamics
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    Earth System Dynamics
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    Research . 2015
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    https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6...
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    Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
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    Article . 2016
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    ETH Zürich Research Collection
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    ETH Zürich Research Collection
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/esdd-6...
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      Earth System Dynamics (ESD)
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