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We use an excludable instrument to test the effect of bilateral foreign aid on economic growth in a sample of 96 recipient countries over the 1974-2009 period. We interact donor government fractionalization with a recipient country’s probability of receiving aid. The results show that fractionalization increases donors’ aid budgets, representing the over-time variation of our instrument, while the probability of receiving aid introduces variation across recipient countries. Controlling for country- and period-specific effects that capture the levels of the interacted variables, the interaction provides a powerful and excludable instru-ment. Making use of the instrument, our results show no significant effect of aid on growth in the overall sample. We also investigate the effect of aid on consumption, savings, and investments, and split the sample according to the quality of economic policy, democracy, and the Cold War period. With the excep-tion of the post-Cold War period (where abundant aid reduces growth), we find no significant effect of aid on growth in any of these sub-samples. None of the other outcomes are affected by aid.

Differential methylation with respect to age and time of cancer diagnosis. [A] Time to diagnosis compared to age at blood sample collection, the line represent the least squares regression fit. [B] Unadjusted DNA methylation values at cg02444695 (near SASH1) in affected individuals (red) and healthy co-twins (blue), shown with respect to age at blood sample collection (years) with smooth (LOESS) lines fitted for both groups. [Câ F] Unadjusted DNA methylation values in affected individuals (red) and healthy co-twins (blue), shown with respect to time of diagnosis (years) with smooth (LOESS) lines fitted for both groups with blood samples collected 5 to 11Â years before cancer diagnosis. The orange and black vertical lines represent the time of diagnosis and time window of the main study respectively. At [C] cg0244695 near SASH1, [D] cg26079695 in COL11A2, [E] cg27094856 in AXL, and [F] cg21046959 in LINC00340. (PDF 185Â kb)

Menschen, die auf häusliche Pflege und Versorgung angewiesen sind, sehen sich im Fall von Notfällen, Krisen und Katastrophen besonderen Herausforderungen ausgesetzt. Zwar wird nicht jeder von ihnen im Alltag von ambulanten Pflegediensten unterstützt – in vielen Fällen wird die Pflege allein oder überwiegend von An- und Zugehörigen geleistet. Dennoch stellen diese Dienste eine wichtige Ressource dar, um die dezentrale häusliche Versorgung von Menschen mit unterschiedlichsten Zugangs- und Funktionsbeeinträchtigungen im Ereignisfall auch unter widrigen Umständen möglichst lange aufrechterhalten zu können. Auch eine ggf. erforderliche Weiterversorgung in Übergangseinrichtungen oder Betreuungsplätzen können sie mit ihrer Expertise begleiten. Voraussetzung dafür ist, dass die ambulanten Dienste, sich den wachsenden Gefahren aus Notfällen, Krisen und Katastrophen stellen, vorausschauend organisatorische Anpassungsmaßnahmen ergreifen und sich auf diese Weise insgesamt widerstandsfähiger gegenüber derartigen Ereignissen aufzustellen. Basierend auf literaturgestützten und empirischen Vorarbeiten und einem partizipativen Zielfindungsprozess wurden im Rahmen des Projekts zur Aufrechterhaltung ambulanter Pflegeinfrastrukturen in Krisensituationen (AUPIK) – insbesondere in Teilprojekt 3 „Sicherheit und Pflege“ – einige organisatorische Maßnahmen zur Förderung der Widerstandsfähigkeit ambulanter Pflegedienste gegenüber Notfällen, Krisen und Katastrophen erarbeitet. Sie werden in diesem Working Paper vorgestellt. Ein besonderer Schwerpunkt liegt dabei einerseits auf der Erstellung eines Katastro-phenschutzplans für ambulante Pflegedienste (Teil I), andererseits auf Bildungsmaterialien für die unterschiedlichen Mitarbeitenden dieser Dienste (Teil II). Die Arbeitsergebnisse sind allgemein gehalten und bedürfen einer Anpassung an die Gegebenheiten des jeweiligen ambulanten Dienstes. Sie sollen binnenorganisatorische Diskurse und Entwicklungen zu den darin aufgeworfenen Fragen anstoßen. Zudem tragen die Arbeitsergebnisse an vielen Stellen vorläufigen Charakter – auch aufgrund fehlender Erkenntnisse und Evidenz in Detailfragen. Tatsächlich lassen sich viele Fragen einer angemessenen Vorbereitung auf Notfälle, Krisen und Katastrophen – insbesondere für häuslich versorgte Menschen mit Zugangs- und Funktionsbeeinträchtigungen – derzeit nicht zufriedenstellend beantworten. Auch zu den Möglichkeiten und Grenzen ambulanter Pflegedienste bei der Gewährleistung der Versorgung und Sicherheit vulnerabler Bevölkerungsgruppen während und nach einem Ereignisfall, fehlt es an tragfähigen wis-senschaftlichen Erkenntnissen. Die Veröffentlichung dieser Anregungen zur Erstellung eines Katastrophenschutzplans und von Bildungsmaterialien für Mitarbeitende ambulanter Pflegedienste erfolgt demnach in der Erwartung, dass sie von den ambulanten Diensten, deren Trägern, Verbänden im Bereich der Langzeitpflege und anderen interessierten Personen und Organisationen aufgegriffen, mit praktischen Erfahrungen angereichert, kontinuierlich weiterentwickelt und neuen Erkenntnissen angepasst werden. Auf diese Weise soll die Veröffentlichung mit dazu beitragen, dass ambulante Pflegedienste künftigen Notfällen, Krisen und Katastrophen vorbereiteter und widerstandsfähiger begegnen können.

We show that the efficient allocation of production capacity can turn a competitive industry and downstream market into an imperfectly competitive one. Even though downstream firms have symmetric production technologies, the downstream industry structure will be symmmetric only if capacity is sufficiently scarce. Otherwise it will be asymmetric, with one large fat capacity-hoarding firm and a fringe of smaller lean and fit firms, so that Tobin`s Q varies inversely with firm size. This is so even if the number of firms is infinitely large. As demand or input quantity varies, the industry may switch between symmetric and asymmetric phases, generating predictions for firm size and costs across the business cycle. Surprisingly, an increase in available capacity resulting in such a switch can cause a reduction in total output and consumer surplus.

Abstract. Changes in anthropogenic aerosol emissions have strongly contributed to global and regional trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate characteristics, and have been one of the dominant drivers of decadal trends in Asian and African precipitation. These, and other, influences on regional climate from changes in aerosol emissions are expected to continue, and potentially strengthen, in the coming decades. However, a combination of large uncertainties in emissions pathways, radiative forcing, and the dynamical response to forcing makes anthropogenic aerosol a key factor in the spread in near-term climate projections, particularly on regional scales, and therefore an important one to constrain. For example, in terms of future emissions pathways, the uncertainty in future global aerosol and precursor gas emissions by 2050 is as large as the total increase in emissions since 1850. In terms of aerosol effective radiative forcing, which remains the largest source of uncertainty in future climate change projections, CMIP6 models span a factor of five, from -0.3 to -1.5 W m-2. Both of these sources of uncertainty are exacerbated on regional scales. The Regional Aerosol Model Intercomparison Project (RAMIP) will deliver experiments designed to quantify the role of regional aerosol emissions changes in near-term projections. This is unlike any prior MIP, where the focus has been on changes in global emissions and/or very idealized aerosol experiments. Perturbing regional emissions makes RAMIP novel from a scientific standpoint, and links the intended analyses more directly to mitigation and adaptation policy issues. From a science perspective, there is limited information on how realistic regional aerosol emissions impact local as well as remote climate conditions. Here, RAMIP will enable an evaluation of the full range of potential influences of realistic and regionally varied aerosol emission changes on near-future climate. From the policy perspective, RAMIP addresses the burning question of how local and remote decisions affecting emissions of aerosols influence climate change in any given region. Here, RAMIP will provide the information needed to make direct links between regional climate policies and regional climate change. RAMIP experiments are designed to explore sensitivities to aerosol type and location, and provide improved constraints on uncertainties driven by aerosol radiative forcing and the dynamical response to aerosol changes. The core experiments will assess the effects of differences in future global and regional (East Asia, South Asia, Africa and the Middle East) aerosol emission trajectories through 2051, while optional experiments will test the nonlinear effects of varying emission location and aerosol types along this future trajectory. All experiments are based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, and are intended to be performed with sixth Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) generation models, initialised from the CMIP6 historical experiments, to facilitate comparisons with existing projections. Requested outputs will enable analysis of the role of aerosol in near-future changes in, for example, temperature and precipitation means and extremes, storms, and air quality.

Primer sequences for qPCR. Primers were custom designed and validated by PrimerDesign Ltd. (Southampton, UK). Figure S1. The effect of a low dose of LPS on locomotor activity at 24 and 48 h post-challenge in naïve mice. Naïve animals were subjected to a single dose of LPS (0.1 or 0.5 mg/kg) or vehicle injection and were tested at 24 or 48 h post-injection. (A) Neither the resting time was unaltered by the treatment in the TruScan open field nor (B) rearing in the novel cage test for the total number of rear. (C–E) Aggressive behaviour was also unaltered. Data are mean ± SEM, two-way ANOVA throughout. Figure S2. (A, B) Body weight in the chronic stress experiment. Experimental groups were balanced upon baseline mean values of body weight measured 7 days prior the start of the chronic stress experiment and LPS challenge. Mice exposed to chronic stress had a significant reduction in body weight as compared with baseline measurements (*p 0.05, one-way ANOVA and post hoc Tukey test; see the text). (F) Naïve and stressed animals (10 days) were challenged with a single dose of LPS (0.1 mg/kg) or vehicle (saline) and tested 24 h thereafter in a novel cage test for total number of rears (see the text). Data are mean ± SEM. No differences between the groups were observed. Figure S3. (A–C) Baseline behaviour in a resident-intruder test. Experimental groups were balanced upon baseline mean scores of behaviours in a resident-intruder test that were studied 7 days prior the experimental chronic stress procedure and LPS challenge. Mice had similar mean measures of (A) latency to attack, (B) number of attack and (C )duration of crawl over behaviour. (p > 0.05, one-way ANOVA and post hoc Tukey test; see the text). (D) The latency to attack after the chronic stress was not significantly altered.

The Central Andes (~21°S) is a subduction-type orogeny formed in the last ~50 Ma from the subduction of the Nazca oceanic plate beneath the South American continental plate. However, the most important phases of deformation occur in the last 20 Ma. Pulses of shortening have led to the sudden growth of the by the Altiplano-Puna plateau. Previous studies have provided insights on the importance of various mechanisms on the overall shortening such as the weakening of the overriding plate from crustal eclogitization and delamination, or the importance of a relatively high friction at the subduction interface, and weak sediments in foreland. However none of them has addressed the mechanism behind these shortening pulses yet. Therefore, we built a series of high resolution 2D visco-plastic subduction models using the ASPECT geodynamic code, in which the oceanic plate is buoyancy-driven and the velocity of the continent is prescribed. We have also implemented a realistic geometry for the south American plate at ~30 Ma. We propose a new plausible mechanism (buckling and steepening of the slab) as the cause of these pulses. The buckling leads to the blockage of the trench. Consequently, the difference of velocity between the South American plate and the trench is accommodated by shortening. The data presented here includes the parameters files, for the reference model (S1) and the following alternative simulations: models with variation of the friction at the subduction interface (S2a-c), a model without eclogitization of the lower crust (S3) and a model with higher thermal conductivity of the upper crust (S4). Additionally, this publication includes the initial composition and thermal state of the lithosphere used for the models and a Readme file that gives all the instructions to run them.