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This paper documents multivariate forecast disagreement among professional forecasters of the Euro area economy and discusses implications for models of heterogeneous expectation formation. Disagreement varies over time and is strongly counter-cyclical. Disagreement is positively correlated with general (economic) uncertainty. Aggregate supply shocks drive disagreement about the long-run state of the economy while aggregate demand shocks have an impact on the level of disagreement about the short-run outlook for the economy. Forecasters disagree about the structure of the economy and the degree to which individual forecasters disagree with the average forecast tends to persist over time. This suggests that models of heterogeneous expectation formation, which are currently not able to generate those last two features, need to be modified. Introducing learning mechanisms and heterogeneous signal-to-noise ratios could reconcile the benchmark model for disagreement with the observed facts.

In contrast to conventional model selection criteria, the Focused Information Criterion (FIC) allows for the purpose-specific choice of model specifications. This accommodates the idea that one kind of model might be highly appropriate for inferences on a particular focus parameter, but not for another. Using the FIC concept that is developed by BEHL, CLAESKENS and DETTE (2014) for quantile regression analysis, and the estimation of the rebound effect in individual mobility behavior as an example, this paper provides for an empirical application of the FIC in the selection of quantile regression models. Discussion Paper / SFB823;39, 2016

The top anti-top quark production cross-section is measured in the lepton+jets channel using proton–proton collision data at a centre-of-mass energy of $\sqrt{s}=13\;$TeV collected with the ATLAS detector at the LHC. The dataset corresponds to an integrated luminosity of 139 fb$^{−1}$. Events with exactly one charged lepton and four or more jets in the final state, with at least one jet containing $b$-hadrons, are used to determine the $t\bar{t}$ production cross-section through a profile-likelihood fit. The inclusive cross-section is measured to be $σ_{inc}$ = 830 ± 0.4 (stat.) ± 36 (syst.) ± 14 (lumi.) pb with a relative uncertainty of 4.6%. The result is consistent with theoretical calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order in perturbative QCD. The fiducial $t\bar{t}$ cross-section within the experimental acceptance is also measured. Physics letters / B 810, 1-22 (2020). doi:10.1016/j.physletb.2020.135797 Published by North-Holland Publ., Amsterdam

After controversial public debates, fuel price regulations were implemented in Austria prohibiting fuel retailers from raising their prices more than once per day. This paper investigates whether these policy measures affected the price transmission dynamics from crude oil prices to retail fuel prices. We estimate different specifications of nonlinear error correction models to quantify a potentially asymmetric adjustment behaviour and compare the results over three subsamples. Particularly, we estimate our models for a pre-regulation period, a between-regulations and a post-regulation period. At first glance, we obtain conflicting results on the efficacy of this policy measure. While the adjustment to the long-run equilibrium seems to be faster if crude oil prices are relatively low, transitory crude oil price decreases are passed through faster than price increases. Only if we consider the combined effect of a crude oil price shock, we can reveal that crude oil price changes are generally passed through faster in the postregulation period. Further, we find that crude oil price decreases are now passed through slightly faster than crude oil price increases. Hence, we conclude that the Austrian fuel price regulation seems to have fostered competition between fuel retailers.

We study the type-I seesaw model with three right-handed neutrinos and Majorana masses below the pion mass. In this mass range, the model parameter space is not only strongly constrained by the requirement to explain the light neutrino masses, but also by experimental searches and cosmological considerations. In the existing literature, three disjoint regions of potentially viable parameter space have been identified. In one of them, all heavy neutrinos decay shortly before big bang nucleosynthesis. In the other two regions, one of the heavy neutrinos either decays between BBN and the CMB decoupling or is quasi-stable. We show that previously unaccounted constraints from photodisintegration of nuclei practically rule out all relevant decays that happen between BBN and the CMB decoupling. Quite remarkably, if all heavy neutrinos decay before BBN, the baryon asymmetry of the universe can be quite generically explained by low-scale leptogenesis, i.e. without further tuning in addition to what is needed to avoid experimental and cosmological constraints. This motivates searches for heavy neutrinos in pion decay experiments. Journal of high energy physics 01(1), 200 (2021). doi:10.1007/JHEP01(2021)200 Published by SISSA, [Trieste]

We study higher-order risk preferences, i.e. prudence and temperance, next to risk aversion in social settings. Previous experimental studies have shown that higher-order risk preferences affect the choices of individuals deciding privately on lotteries that only affect their own pay-off. Yet, most risky and financially relevant decisions in the field are made in the social settings of households or organizations. We aim to narrow the gap between laboratory and field evidence by creating a more realistic decision making environment in the laboratory that allows us to identify the influence of different social settings under controlled conditions. We elicit higher-order risk preferences of individuals and systematic ally vary how an individual's decision is made (alone or while communicating with a partner) and who is affected by the decision (only the individual or the partner as well). In doing so, we can isolate the effects of other-regarding concerns and communication on choices. We observe that individuals become more risk-averse when the partner is able to communicate with the decision maker. However, we do not observe an influence of social settings on prudence and temperance. Our results reveal that the majority of choices are risk-averse, prudent, and temperate across social settings. Wir untersuchen neben Risikoaversion auch Risikopräferenzen höherer Ordnung, d.h. "Prudence" und "Temperance" in sozialen Situationen. Experimentelle Studien haben bisher gezeigt, dass Risikopräferenzen höherer Ordnung die Entscheidungen von Individuen bestimmen, die isoliert zwischen Lotterien wählen, die nur ihre eigene Auszahlung bestimmen. Jedoch werden die meisten finanziell relevanten Entscheidungen unter Unsicherheit in sozialen Situationen getroffen, z.B. in Haushalten oder Organisationen. In unserer Studie verkleinern wir die Diskrepanz zwischen bisheriger Labor- und Feldevidenz, indem wir eine realistischere Entscheidungssituation im Labor kreieren. Sie erlaubt es, den Einfluss unterschiedlicher sozialer Einflüsse unter kontrollierten Bedingungen zu identifizieren. Wir erheben Risikopräferenzen höherer Ordnung von Individuen und variieren systematisch wie eine Entscheidung getroffen wird (alleine oder während der Kommunikation mit einem Partner) und wer von der Entscheidung betroffen ist (nur der Entscheider oder auch der Partner). So können wir den Einfluss von etwaigen "other-regarding concerns" und von Kommunikation auf die Entscheidungen isolieren. Wir beobachten, dass die Individuen risiko-averser entscheiden, wenn mit dem Partner kommuniziert werden kann. Wir beobachten jedoch keinen Einfluss der sozialen Situation auf Risikopräferenzen höherer Ordnung. Unsere Ergebnisse zeigen, dass die Mehrzahl der Entscheidungen über unterschiedliche soziale Situationen hinweg risikoavers, "prudent" und "temperate" ist.

Compact myelin forms the basis of nerve insulation essential for higher vertebrates. Dozens of myelin membrane bilayers undergo tight stacking, and in the peripheral nervous system, this is partially enabled by myelin protein zero (P0). Consisting of an immunoglobulin (Ig)-like extracellular domain, a single transmembrane helix, and a cytoplasmic extension (P0ct), P0 harbours an important task in ensuring the integrity of compact myelin in the extracellular compartment, referred to as the intraperiod line. Several disease mutations resulting in peripheral neuropathies have been identified for P0, reflecting its physiological importance, but the arrangement of P0 within the myelin ultrastructure remains obscure. We performed a biophysical characterization of recombinant P0ct. P0ct contributes to the binding affinity between apposed cytoplasmic myelin membrane leaflets, which not only results in changes of the bilayer properties, but also potentially involves the arrangement of the Ig-like domains in a manner that stabilizes the intraperiod line. Transmission electron cryomicroscopy of native full-length P0 showed that P0 stacks lipid membranes by forming antiparallel dimers between the extracellular Ig-like domains. The zipper-like arrangement of the P0 extracellular domains between two membranes explains the double structure of the myelin intraperiod line. Our results contribute to the understanding of PNS myelin, the role of P0 therein, and the underlying molecular foundation of compact myelin stability in health and disease. Scientific Reports, 9 ISSN:2045-2322

The possibility of electric vehicles to technically replace internal combustion engine vehicles and to deliver economic benefits still mainly depends on the battery size and the charging infrastructure costs as well as on annual mileage (utilizing the lower variable costs of electric vehicles). Current studies on electric vehicles’ total cost of ownership often neglect two important factors that influence the investment decision and operational costs: firstly, the trade-off between battery and charging capacity; secondly the uncertainty in energy consumption. This paper proposes a two-stage stochastic program that minimizes the total cost of ownership of a commercial electric vehicle under uncertain energy consumption and available charging times induced by mobility patterns and outside temperature. The optimization program is solved by sample average approximation based on mobility and temperature scenarios. A hidden Markov model is introduced to predict mobility demand scenarios. Three scenario reduction heuristics are applied to reduce computational effort while keeping a high-quality approximation. The proposed framework is tested in a case study of the home nursing service. The results show the large influence of the uncertain mobility patterns on the optimal solution. In the case study, the total cost of ownership can be reduced by up to 3.9% by including the trade-off between battery and charging capacity. The introduction of variable energy prices can lower energy costs by 31.6% but does not influence the investment decision in this case study. Overall, this study provides valuable insights for real applications to determine the techno-economic optimal electric vehicle and charging infrastructure configuration.

Several countries have recently introduced national capital standards exceeding the internationally coordinated Basel III rules, which is inconsistent with the 'race to the bottom' in capital standards found in the literature. We study regulatory competition when banks are heterogeneous and give loans to firms that produce output in an integrated market. In this setting capital requirements change the pool quality of banks in each country and inflict negative externalities on neighboring jurisdictions by shifting risks to foreign taxpayers and by reducing total credit supply and output. Non-cooperatively set capital standards are higher than coordinated ones and a 'race to the top' occurs when governments care equally about bank profits, taxpayers, and consumers.

As crop straw and firewood are generated as by-products of food production systems, they are perceived to be sustainable energy sources that do not threaten food security by Chinese government for a long time. However, the time spent on collecting straw and firewood may create a burden on rural household, as it could reduce the available labor inputs for agricultural production, which in turn, possibly brings negative impact on food security. Building on an integrated agriculture-energy production system, a Symmetric Normalized Quadratic (SNQ) multi-output profit function (which includes labor allocations as quasi-fixed factors) is estimated to investigate the impacts of traditional biomass energy use on agricultural production in this paper. The negative signs of the calculated cross-price elasticities of supply (agricultural products and biomass energy) confirm that the relationship between biomass collection and agricultural production is competition. Moreover, the cross-price elasticities of biomass collection with respect to inputs are positive, implying that indirect link between biomass collection and agricultural production perhaps lies in household consumption decisions. The important implication of this study is that potential policy interventions for developing biomass energy in rural China could aim at enhancing food security by improving household motivation of engaging in agricultural production and slowing down the competition between biomass collection and agricultural production. It is suggested that government should attach more importance to simultaneously promote the prices of agricultural products and control the prices of intermediate inputs.