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  • French
    Authors: 
    Hantem, Aziz;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
  • English
    Authors: 
    Abidi, Hani; Amami, Rim; Trabelsi, Chiraz;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The model descibes the epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 in a population after vaccination. Using the maximum principale, our goal is to prove the existence of an optimal strategy such that it minimize the number of infected people after vaccination. Finally, some numerical results are provided.

  • Publication . Other literature type . Article . 2020
    Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Ali Moussaoui; Pierre Auger;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Algeria was reported on 25 February 2020. Since then, it has progressed rapidly and the number of cases grow exponentially each day. In this article, we utilize SEIR modelling to forecast COVID-19 outbreak in Algeria under two scenarios by using the real-time data from March 01 to April 10, 2020. In the first scenario: no control measures are put into place, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Algeria is 2.1, the number of new cases in Algeria will peak from around late May to early June and up to 82% of the Algerian population will likely contract the coronavirus. In the second scenario, at a certain date T, drastic control measures are taken, people are being advised to self-isolate or to quarantine and will be able to leave their homes only if necessary. We use SEIR model with fast change between fully protected and risky states. We prove that the final size of the epidemic depends strongly on the cumulative number of cases at the date when we implement intervention and on the fraction of the population in confinement. Our analysis shows that the longer we wait, the worse the situation will be and this very quickly produces.

  • Publication . Article . Preprint . 2020
    Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Alberto Alemanno;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The European response to COVID-19 has revealed an inconvenient truth. Despite having integrated public health concerns across all its policies – be it agriculture, consumer protection, or security –, the Union cannot directly act to save people’s lives. Only member states can do so. Yet when they adopted unilateral measures to counter the spread of the virus, those proved not only ineffective but also disruptive on vital supply chains, by ultimately preventing the flow of essential goods and people across the Union. These fragmented efforts in tackling cross-border health threats have almost immediately prompted political calls for the urgent creation of a European Health Union. Yet this call raises more questions than answers. With the aim to offer a rigorous and timely blueprint to decision-makers and the public at large, this Special Issue of the European Journal of Risk Regulation contextualizes such a new political project within the broader constitutional and institutional framework of EU public health law and policy. By introducing the Special, this paper argues that unless the envisaged Health Union will tackle the root causes of what prevented the Union from effectively responding to COVID-19 – the divergent health capacity across the Union –, it might fall short of its declared objective of strengthening the EU’resilience for cross-border health threats.

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Bastien Reyné; Christian Selinger; Mircea T. Sofonea; Stéphanie Miot; Amandine Pisoni; Edouard Tuaillon; Jean Bousquet; Hubert Blain; Samuel Alizon;
    Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
    Country: France

    AbstractBackgroundCOVID-19 is spreading rapidly in nursing homes (NHs). It is urgent to evaluate the effect of infection prevention and control (IPC) measures to reduce COVID spreading.MethodsWe analysed COVID-19 outbreaks in 12 NH using rRT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2. We estimated secondary attack risks (SARs) and identified cofactors associated with the proportion of infected residents.ResultsThe SAR was below 5%, suggesting a high efficiency of IPC measures. Mask-wearing or establishment of COVID-19 zones for infected residents were associated with lower SAR.ConclusionsWearing masks and isolating potentially infected residents appear to limit SARS-CoV-2 spread in nursing homes.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Achraf Ammar; Michael Brach; Khaled Trabelsi; Hamdi Chtourou; Omar Boukhris; Liwa Masmoudi; Bassem Bouaziz; Ellen Bentlage; Daniella How; Mona A. Ahmed; +47 more
    Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
    Country: France

    AbstractBackgroundPublic health recommendations and governmental measures during the COVID-19 pandemic have enforced numerous restrictions on daily living including social distancing, isolation and home confinement. While these measures are imperative to abate the spreading of COVID-19, the impact of these restrictions on health behaviours and lifestyle at home is undefined. Therefore, an international online survey was launched in April 2020 in seven languages to elucidate the behavioral and lifestyle consequences of COVID-19 restrictions. This report presents the preliminary results from the first thousand responders on physical activity (PA) and nutrition behaviours.MethodsThirty-five research organisations from Europe, North-Africa, Western Asia and the Americas promoted the survey through their networks to the general society, in English, German, French, Arabic, Spanish, Portugese, and Slovenian languages. Questions were presented in a differential format with questions related to responses “before” and “during” confinement conditions.Results1047 replies (54% women) from Asia (36%), Africa (40%), Europe (21%) and other (3%) were included into a general analysis. The COVID-19 home confinement had a negative effect on all intensities of PA (vigorous, moderate, walking and overall). Conversely, daily sitting time increased from 5 to 8 hours per day. Additionally, food consumption and meal patterns (the type of food, eating out of control, snacks between meals, number of meals) were more unhealthy during confinement with only alcohol binge drink decreasing significantly.ConclusionWhile isolation is a necessary measure to protect public health, our results indicate that it alters physical activity and eating behaviours in a direction that would compromise health. A more detailed analysis of survey data will allow for a segregation of these responses in different age groups, countries and other subgroups which will help develop bespoke interventions to mitigate the negative lifestyle behaviors manifest during the COVID-19 confinement.

  • Closed Access French
    Authors: 
    Maglio, Milena; Galmiche, Perrine; Foureur, Nicolas;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    From the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in France, many argued that now was the time for action, not ethics, while acknowledging the need for feedback once the crisis had passed. To this end, the Parisian clinical ethics’ center suggested that health professionals, patients, and families come back on difficulties or questions they might have had during the first national lockdown once it was over. We called it ethical debriefs. Between May and September 2021, 31 professionals agreed to participate, but only 1 patient (a retired physician) and no proxy was met. The aim of this article is to share how these health professionals revisited the first months of the crisis. Indeed today, more than one year since Covid started and as what was once unusual is becoming common practice, it is useful not to forget how they reacted, what their questions were and where did their ethical difficulties lie at that time. Now that coming back to normal might be conceivable, all these interviews highlight the importance of a questioning on what caring for patients means nowadays, as well as on the definition of role of medicine in a context of crisis.; Dès les premières semaines de l’épidémie de la Covid-19, en France, plusieurs voix se sont levées pour dire que l’heure n’était pas à la réflexion éthique, mais à l’action, en soulignant néanmoins l’importance d’un retour d’expérience à l’issue de l’urgence. Dans cette visée, le Centre d’éthique clinique de l’AP-HP a proposé, dès la fin du 1er confinement national, à des soignants, comme à des patients ou à des proches, de revenir, s’ils le souhaitaient, sur les questionnements ou les difficultés éthiques rencontrées pendant cette période (ce qu’il a appelé des « relectures éthiques »). Entre mai et septembre 2020, 31 professionnels y ont participé, 1 seul patient (médecin à la retraite) a été rencontré et aucun proche. Cet article souhaite partager la façon dont ces professionnels sont revenus, dans l’après-coup, sur les premiers mois de la crise. Plus d’une année plus tard, à l’heure où ce qui était « inhabituel » commence par devenir « ordinaire », et le « retour à la vie normale » semble à l’horizon, il n’est pas inutile de rappeler leurs réactions, leurs interrogations et leurs malaises. Au croisement des entretiens, c’est un questionnement quant à ce que soigner veut dire aujourd’hui et au rôle de la médecine en contexte de crise que l’on voit émerger.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Margaret Chitiga; Martin Henseler; Ramos Mabugu; Helene Maisonnave;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    To contribute towards addressing the problem of relatively few general equilibrium studies focusing on gender impacts of disease pandemics, this paper uses a gendered Computable General Equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model to study the short run economic effects of COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. A mild and severe scenario is run to represent the pandemic. Findings suggest that while COVID-19 leads to negative economic effects irrespective of scenario, female-headed households bear a disproportionately higher burden of the brunt. Because women tend to be more concentrated in employment in sectors that are hurt the most by COVID-19 response measures as well as that they predominate in unskilled categories, the simulation results show that women suffer disproportionately more from higher unemployment than their male counterparts though the differences are not as pronounced. The poverty outcomes show worsened vulnerability for female-headed households given that, even prior to the pandemic, poverty was already higher amongst women. These results are important in informing evidence-based responses by government to the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • Open Access French
    Authors: 
    Bourbié, Thierry; Roche, Max; Chochillon, Christian; Fernandez, Corinne; Lagadec, Patrick; Hontebeyrie, Patrick;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Moritz U. G. Kraemer; Chia-Hung Yang; Bernardo Gutierrez; Chieh-Hsi Wu; Brennan Klein; David M. Pigott; Louis du Plessis; Nuno R. Faria; Ruoran Li; William P. Hanage; +7 more
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Countries: United Kingdom, United Kingdom, France, United Kingdom
    Project: NIH | MIDAS Center for Communic... (1U54GM088558-01)

    The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19. One sentence summary: The spread of COVID-19 in China was driven by human mobility early on and mitigated substantially by drastic control measures implemented since the end of January.

Advanced search in
Research products
arrow_drop_down
Searching FieldsTerms
Any field
arrow_drop_down
includes
arrow_drop_down
Include:
900 Research products, page 1 of 90
  • French
    Authors: 
    Hantem, Aziz;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
  • English
    Authors: 
    Abidi, Hani; Amami, Rim; Trabelsi, Chiraz;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The model descibes the epidemic dynamics of Covid-19 in a population after vaccination. Using the maximum principale, our goal is to prove the existence of an optimal strategy such that it minimize the number of infected people after vaccination. Finally, some numerical results are provided.

  • Publication . Other literature type . Article . 2020
    Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Ali Moussaoui; Pierre Auger;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The first case of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Algeria was reported on 25 February 2020. Since then, it has progressed rapidly and the number of cases grow exponentially each day. In this article, we utilize SEIR modelling to forecast COVID-19 outbreak in Algeria under two scenarios by using the real-time data from March 01 to April 10, 2020. In the first scenario: no control measures are put into place, we estimate that the basic reproduction number for the epidemic in Algeria is 2.1, the number of new cases in Algeria will peak from around late May to early June and up to 82% of the Algerian population will likely contract the coronavirus. In the second scenario, at a certain date T, drastic control measures are taken, people are being advised to self-isolate or to quarantine and will be able to leave their homes only if necessary. We use SEIR model with fast change between fully protected and risky states. We prove that the final size of the epidemic depends strongly on the cumulative number of cases at the date when we implement intervention and on the fraction of the population in confinement. Our analysis shows that the longer we wait, the worse the situation will be and this very quickly produces.

  • Publication . Article . Preprint . 2020
    Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Alberto Alemanno;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    The European response to COVID-19 has revealed an inconvenient truth. Despite having integrated public health concerns across all its policies – be it agriculture, consumer protection, or security –, the Union cannot directly act to save people’s lives. Only member states can do so. Yet when they adopted unilateral measures to counter the spread of the virus, those proved not only ineffective but also disruptive on vital supply chains, by ultimately preventing the flow of essential goods and people across the Union. These fragmented efforts in tackling cross-border health threats have almost immediately prompted political calls for the urgent creation of a European Health Union. Yet this call raises more questions than answers. With the aim to offer a rigorous and timely blueprint to decision-makers and the public at large, this Special Issue of the European Journal of Risk Regulation contextualizes such a new political project within the broader constitutional and institutional framework of EU public health law and policy. By introducing the Special, this paper argues that unless the envisaged Health Union will tackle the root causes of what prevented the Union from effectively responding to COVID-19 – the divergent health capacity across the Union –, it might fall short of its declared objective of strengthening the EU’resilience for cross-border health threats.

  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Bastien Reyné; Christian Selinger; Mircea T. Sofonea; Stéphanie Miot; Amandine Pisoni; Edouard Tuaillon; Jean Bousquet; Hubert Blain; Samuel Alizon;
    Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
    Country: France

    AbstractBackgroundCOVID-19 is spreading rapidly in nursing homes (NHs). It is urgent to evaluate the effect of infection prevention and control (IPC) measures to reduce COVID spreading.MethodsWe analysed COVID-19 outbreaks in 12 NH using rRT-PCR for SARS-CoV-2. We estimated secondary attack risks (SARs) and identified cofactors associated with the proportion of infected residents.ResultsThe SAR was below 5%, suggesting a high efficiency of IPC measures. Mask-wearing or establishment of COVID-19 zones for infected residents were associated with lower SAR.ConclusionsWearing masks and isolating potentially infected residents appear to limit SARS-CoV-2 spread in nursing homes.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Achraf Ammar; Michael Brach; Khaled Trabelsi; Hamdi Chtourou; Omar Boukhris; Liwa Masmoudi; Bassem Bouaziz; Ellen Bentlage; Daniella How; Mona A. Ahmed; +47 more
    Publisher: Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory
    Country: France

    AbstractBackgroundPublic health recommendations and governmental measures during the COVID-19 pandemic have enforced numerous restrictions on daily living including social distancing, isolation and home confinement. While these measures are imperative to abate the spreading of COVID-19, the impact of these restrictions on health behaviours and lifestyle at home is undefined. Therefore, an international online survey was launched in April 2020 in seven languages to elucidate the behavioral and lifestyle consequences of COVID-19 restrictions. This report presents the preliminary results from the first thousand responders on physical activity (PA) and nutrition behaviours.MethodsThirty-five research organisations from Europe, North-Africa, Western Asia and the Americas promoted the survey through their networks to the general society, in English, German, French, Arabic, Spanish, Portugese, and Slovenian languages. Questions were presented in a differential format with questions related to responses “before” and “during” confinement conditions.Results1047 replies (54% women) from Asia (36%), Africa (40%), Europe (21%) and other (3%) were included into a general analysis. The COVID-19 home confinement had a negative effect on all intensities of PA (vigorous, moderate, walking and overall). Conversely, daily sitting time increased from 5 to 8 hours per day. Additionally, food consumption and meal patterns (the type of food, eating out of control, snacks between meals, number of meals) were more unhealthy during confinement with only alcohol binge drink decreasing significantly.ConclusionWhile isolation is a necessary measure to protect public health, our results indicate that it alters physical activity and eating behaviours in a direction that would compromise health. A more detailed analysis of survey data will allow for a segregation of these responses in different age groups, countries and other subgroups which will help develop bespoke interventions to mitigate the negative lifestyle behaviors manifest during the COVID-19 confinement.

  • Closed Access French
    Authors: 
    Maglio, Milena; Galmiche, Perrine; Foureur, Nicolas;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    From the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic in France, many argued that now was the time for action, not ethics, while acknowledging the need for feedback once the crisis had passed. To this end, the Parisian clinical ethics’ center suggested that health professionals, patients, and families come back on difficulties or questions they might have had during the first national lockdown once it was over. We called it ethical debriefs. Between May and September 2021, 31 professionals agreed to participate, but only 1 patient (a retired physician) and no proxy was met. The aim of this article is to share how these health professionals revisited the first months of the crisis. Indeed today, more than one year since Covid started and as what was once unusual is becoming common practice, it is useful not to forget how they reacted, what their questions were and where did their ethical difficulties lie at that time. Now that coming back to normal might be conceivable, all these interviews highlight the importance of a questioning on what caring for patients means nowadays, as well as on the definition of role of medicine in a context of crisis.; Dès les premières semaines de l’épidémie de la Covid-19, en France, plusieurs voix se sont levées pour dire que l’heure n’était pas à la réflexion éthique, mais à l’action, en soulignant néanmoins l’importance d’un retour d’expérience à l’issue de l’urgence. Dans cette visée, le Centre d’éthique clinique de l’AP-HP a proposé, dès la fin du 1er confinement national, à des soignants, comme à des patients ou à des proches, de revenir, s’ils le souhaitaient, sur les questionnements ou les difficultés éthiques rencontrées pendant cette période (ce qu’il a appelé des « relectures éthiques »). Entre mai et septembre 2020, 31 professionnels y ont participé, 1 seul patient (médecin à la retraite) a été rencontré et aucun proche. Cet article souhaite partager la façon dont ces professionnels sont revenus, dans l’après-coup, sur les premiers mois de la crise. Plus d’une année plus tard, à l’heure où ce qui était « inhabituel » commence par devenir « ordinaire », et le « retour à la vie normale » semble à l’horizon, il n’est pas inutile de rappeler leurs réactions, leurs interrogations et leurs malaises. Au croisement des entretiens, c’est un questionnement quant à ce que soigner veut dire aujourd’hui et au rôle de la médecine en contexte de crise que l’on voit émerger.

  • Open Access English
    Authors: 
    Margaret Chitiga; Martin Henseler; Ramos Mabugu; Helene Maisonnave;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France

    To contribute towards addressing the problem of relatively few general equilibrium studies focusing on gender impacts of disease pandemics, this paper uses a gendered Computable General Equilibrium model linked to a microsimulation model to study the short run economic effects of COVID-19 pandemic in South Africa. A mild and severe scenario is run to represent the pandemic. Findings suggest that while COVID-19 leads to negative economic effects irrespective of scenario, female-headed households bear a disproportionately higher burden of the brunt. Because women tend to be more concentrated in employment in sectors that are hurt the most by COVID-19 response measures as well as that they predominate in unskilled categories, the simulation results show that women suffer disproportionately more from higher unemployment than their male counterparts though the differences are not as pronounced. The poverty outcomes show worsened vulnerability for female-headed households given that, even prior to the pandemic, poverty was already higher amongst women. These results are important in informing evidence-based responses by government to the COVID-19 pandemic.

  • Open Access French
    Authors: 
    Bourbié, Thierry; Roche, Max; Chochillon, Christian; Fernandez, Corinne; Lagadec, Patrick; Hontebeyrie, Patrick;
    Publisher: HAL CCSD
    Country: France
  • Open Access
    Authors: 
    Moritz U. G. Kraemer; Chia-Hung Yang; Bernardo Gutierrez; Chieh-Hsi Wu; Brennan Klein; David M. Pigott; Louis du Plessis; Nuno R. Faria; Ruoran Li; William P. Hanage; +7 more
    Publisher: American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS)
    Countries: United Kingdom, United Kingdom, France, United Kingdom
    Project: NIH | MIDAS Center for Communic... (1U54GM088558-01)

    The ongoing COVID-19 outbreak has expanded rapidly throughout China. Major behavioral, clinical, and state interventions are underway currently to mitigate the epidemic and prevent the persistence of the virus in human populations in China and worldwide. It remains unclear how these unprecedented interventions, including travel restrictions, have affected COVID-19 spread in China. We use real-time mobility data from Wuhan and detailed case data including travel history to elucidate the role of case importation on transmission in cities across China and ascertain the impact of control measures. Early on, the spatial distribution of COVID-19 cases in China was well explained by human mobility data. Following the implementation of control measures, this correlation dropped and growth rates became negative in most locations, although shifts in the demographics of reported cases are still indicative of local chains of transmission outside Wuhan. This study shows that the drastic control measures implemented in China have substantially mitigated the spread of COVID-19. One sentence summary: The spread of COVID-19 in China was driven by human mobility early on and mitigated substantially by drastic control measures implemented since the end of January.

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