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<p>The convergence between the Arabian and the Eurasian plates resulted in the development of the Greater Caucasus (GC) and the Lesser Caucasus fold-and-thrust belts, separated across most of their length by the Transcaucasian depression. The whole sub-horizontal shortening of the Caucasus was quantified at hundreds of kilometers and, according to several studies, reached its maximum rate in the Miocene-Pliocene. At present, convergence between the Eurasian and African-Arabian plates is still active, producing widespread deformation within the mountain belt and in the surrounding regions, as testified to by seismological, paleoseismological and GPS data.</p> <p>Understanding the active tectonics of the Caucasus is of paramount importance for a better assessment of geohazards, especially seismic hazard. Moreover, there is a major concentration of residents in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia, hosting 1.2 million citizens, and in Baku, the capital of the Azerbaijan Republic, with over 2.3 million citizens; both cities are located in active tectonic basins at the southern foothills of the GC. Hundreds of rural villages are scattered in the mountain regions, and all were built without taking into consideration antiseismic criteria. All the above shows that the Caucasus and Transcaucasus regions are subject to an extreme seismic hazard and risk.</p> <p>Here, we describe the active kinematics of the Greater Caucasus (territories of Georgia, Azerbaijan and Russia) through an integrated analysis of seismological, structural-geological and GPS data. Alignments of crustal earthquake epicentres indicate that most seismic areas are located along the southern margin of the mountain belt and in its north-eastern sector, in correspondence of major, active WNW-ESE faults, parallel to the mountain range. Focal Mechanism Solutions (FMS) delineate dominant reverse fault kinematics in most sectors of the mountain belt, although swarms of strike-slip FMS indicate the presence of active transcurrent faulting, especially along the southeastern border of the Greater Caucasus. The mountain belt is characterized by dominant NNE-SSW-oriented P-axes. In the central-southern sector, in correspondence of the local collision between the Lesser and Greater Caucasus, P-axes are mainly NNW-SSE oriented. GPS data show dominant motions to the NNW, with rates increasing in eastward direction. All observations are consistent with a component of eastward escape of the central-eastern part of the Greater Caucasus.</p>

What are the value and form of optimal persuasion when information can be generated only slowly? We study this question in a dynamic model in which a “sender” provides public information over time subject to a graduality constraint, and a decision maker takes an action in each period. Using a novel “viscosity” dynamic programming principle, we characterize the sender's equilibrium value function and information provision. We show that the graduality constraint inhibits information provision relative to unconstrained persuasion. The gap can be substantial, but closes as the constraint slackens. Contrary to unconstrained persuasion, less‐than‐full information may be provided even if players have aligned preferences but different prior beliefs.

In this paper, we introduce the concept of ‘societal emotional environment’: the emotional climate of a society (operationalized as the degree to which positive and negative emotions are expressed in a society). Using data collected from 12, 888 participants across 49 countries, we show how societal emotional environments vary across countries and cultural clusters, and we consider the potential importance of these differences for well-being. Multilevel analyses supported a ‘double-edged sword’ model of negative emotion expression, where expression of negative emotions predicted higher life satisfaction for the expresser but lower life satisfaction for society. In contrast, partial support was found for higher societal life satisfaction in positive societal emotional environments. Our study highlights the potential utility and importance of distinguishing between positive and negative emotion expression, and adopting both individual and societal perspectives in well- being research. Individual pathways to happiness may not necessarily promote the happiness of others.

Background: Seeking consent rapidly in acute stroke trials is crucial as interventions are time sensitive. We explored the association between consent pathways and time to enrollment in the TICH-2 (Tranexamic Acid in Intracerebral Haemorrhage-2) randomized controlled trial. Methods: Consent was provided by patients or by a relative or an independent doctor in incapacitated patients, using a 1-stage (full written consent) or 2-stage (initial brief consent followed by full written consent post-randomization) approach. The computed tomography-to-randomization time according to consent pathways was compared using the Kruskal-Wallis test. Multivariable logistic regression was performed to identify variables associated with onset-to-randomization time of ≤3 hours. Results: Of 2325 patients, 817 (35%) gave self-consent using 1-stage (557; 68%) or 2-stage consent (260; 32%). For 1507 (65%), consent was provided by a relative (1 stage, 996 [66%]; 2 stage, 323 [21%]) or a doctor (all 2-stage, 188 [12%]). One patient did not record prerandomization consent, with written consent obtained subsequently. The median (interquartile range) computed tomography-to-randomization time was 55 (38–93) minutes for doctor consent, 55 (37–95) minutes for 2-stage patient, 69 (43–110) minutes for 2-stage relative, 75 (48–124) minutes for 1-stage patient, and 90 (56–155) minutes for 1-stage relative consents ( P <0.001). Two-stage consent was associated with onset-to-randomization time of ≤3 hours compared with 1-stage consent (adjusted odds ratio, 1.9 [95% CI, 1.5–2.4]). Doctor consent increased the odds (adjusted odds ratio, 2.3 [1.5–3.5]) while relative consent reduced the odds of randomization ≤3 hours (adjusted odds ratio, 0.10 [0.03–0.34]) compared with patient consent. Only 2 of 771 patients (0.3%) in the 2-stage pathways withdrew consent when full consent was sought later. Two-stage consent process did not result in higher withdrawal rates or loss to follow-up. Conclusions: The use of initial brief consent was associated with shorter times to enrollment, while maintaining good participant retention. Seeking written consent from relatives was associated with significant delays. Registration: URL: https://www.isrctn.com ; Unique identifier: ISRCTN93732214.

Global freshwater biodiversity is declining dramatically, and meeting the challenges of this crisis requires bold goals and the mobilisation of substantial resources. While the reasons are varied, investments in both research and conservation of freshwater biodiversity lag far behind those in the terrestrial and marine realms. Inspired by a global consultation, we identify 15 pressing priority needs, grouped into five research areas, in an effort to support informed stewardship of freshwater biodiversity. The proposed agenda aims to advance freshwater biodiversity research globally as a critical step in improving coordinated actions towards its sustainable management and conservation. ispartof: ECOLOGY LETTERS vol:25 issue:2 pages:255-263 ispartof: location:England status: published

Abstract The increasing prevalence of allergic diseases has placed a significant burden on global healthcare and society as whole. This has necessitated a rapid development of “allergy” as a specialist area. However, as allergy is so common and, for most, relatively easy to diagnose and control, all clinicians need to have basic knowledge and competence to manage mild disease and recognize when referral is required. The allergology specialty has not yet been recognized in many countries and even where allergy is fully recognized as a specialty, the approach to training in allergy differs significantly. In the light of recent developments in allergy diagnosis and management, there is an urgent need to harmonize core competences for physicians, as well as the standardization of core principles for medical education and post-graduate training in allergy. All physicians and allied health professionals must appreciate the multidisciplinary team (MDT) approach to allergy, which is key to achieving the highest standards in holistic care. Due to worldwide variation in resources and personnel, some MDT roles will need to be absorbed by the treating physician or other healthcare professionals. We draw particular attention to the role of psychological input for all allergy patients, dietetic input in the case of food allergy and patient education to support all patients in the supported self-management of their condition on a daily basis. A strong appreciation of these multidisciplinary aspects will help physicians provide quality patient-centered care. We consider that harmonization of allergy components within undergraduate curricula is crucial to ensure all physicians develop the appropriate allergy-related knowledge and skills, particularly in light of inconsistencies seen in the primary care management of allergy. This review from the World Allergy Organization (WAO) Education and Training Committee also outlines allergy-related competences required of physicians working with allergic patients and provides recommendations to promote harmonization of allergy training and practice worldwide.

This paper evaluates six soft computational models along with three statistical data-driven models for the prediction of pan evaporation (EP). Accordingly, improved kriging—as a novel statistical model—is proposed for accurate predictions of EP for two meteorological stations in Turkey. In the standard kriging model, the input data nonlinearity effects are increased by using a nonlinear map and transferring input data from a polynomial to an exponential basic function. The accuracy, precision, and over/under prediction tendencies of the response surface method, kriging, improved kriging, multilayer perceptron neural network using the Levenberg–Marquardt (MLP-LM) as well as a conjugate gradient (MLP-CG), radial basis function neural network (RBFNN), multivariate adaptive regression spline (MARS), M5Tree and support vector regression (SVR) were compared. Overall, all the applied models were highly capable of predicting monthly EP in both stations with a mean absolute error (MAE) < 0.95. Considering periodicity as an input parameter, the MLP-LM provided better results than the other methods among the soft computing models (MAE = 0.492 mm and d = 0.981). However, the improved kriging method surpassed all the other models based on the statistical measures (MAE = 0.471 mm and d = 0.983). Finally, the outcomes of the Mann–Whitney test indicated that the applied soft computational models do not have significant superiority over the statistical ones (p-value > 0.77 mm and a Willmott index (d) > 0.65 at α = 0.01 and α = 0.05).

The threat posed by invasive non-native species worldwide requires a global approach to identify which introduced species are likely to pose an elevated risk of impact to native species and ecosystems. To inform policy, stakeholders and management decisions on global threats to aquatic ecosystems, 195 assessors representing 120 risk assessment areas across all six inhabited continents screened 819 non-native species from 15 groups of aquatic organisms (freshwater, brackish, marine plants and animals) using the Aquatic Species Invasiveness Screening Kit. This multi-lingual decision-support tool for the risk screening of aquatic organisms provides assessors with risk scores for a species under current and future climate change conditions that, following a statistically based calibration, permits the accurate classification of species into high-, medium-and low-risk categories under current and predicted climate conditions. The 1730 screenings undertaken encompassed wide geographical areas (regions, political entities, parts thereof, water bodies, river basins, lake drainage basins, and marine regions), which permitted thresholds to be identified for almost all aquatic organismal groups screened as well as for tropical, temperate and continental climate classes, and for tropical and temperate marine ecoregions. In total, 33 species were identified as posing a 'very high risk' of being or becoming invasive, and the scores of several of these species under current climate increased under future climate conditions, primarily due to their wide thermal tolerances. The risk thresholds determined for taxonomic groups and climate zones provide a basis against which area-specific or climate-based calibrated thresholds may be interpreted. In turn, the risk rankings help decision-makers identify which species require an immediate 'rapid' management action (e.g. eradication, control) to avoid or mitigate adverse impacts, which require a full risk assessment, and which are to be restricted or banned with regard to importation and/or sale as ornamental or aquarium/fishery enhancement. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/). This study is dedicated to our co-author, the late Prof. Olaf Weyl, whose sudden passing during field work in November 2020 was received by us with great sadness. This study represents a contribution to the term of reference 'd' (Advance knowledge base to further develop indicators to evaluate the status and impact of non-indigenous species in marine environments) of the ICES working group on Introductions and Transfers of Marine Organisms. The participation of GHC was supported by the Cefas Science Excellence fund. AW and AF were supported by TKP2020-NKA-16 project. Cefas Science Excellence fund; [TKP2020-NKA-16]

Events where the two leading jets are separated by a pseudorapidity interval devoid of particle activity, known as jet-gap-jet events, are studied in proton-proton collisions at √s=13 TeV. The signature is expected from hard color-singlet exchange. Each of the highest transverse momentum (pT) jets must have pjetT>40 GeV and pseudorapidity 1.40.2 GeV in the interval |η|<1 between the jets are observed in excess of calculations that assume only color-exchange. The fraction of events produced via color-singlet exchange, fCSE, is measured as a function of pjet2T, the pseudorapidity difference between the two leading jets, and the azimuthal angular separation between the two leading jets. The fraction fCSE has values of 0.4–1.0%. The results are compared with previous measurements and with predictions from perturbative quantum chromodynamics. In addition, the first study of jet-gap-jet events detected in association with an intact proton using a subsample of events with an integrated luminosity of 0.40 pb−1 is presented. The intact protons are detected with the Roman pot detectors of the TOTEM experiment. The fCSE in this sample is 2.91±0.70(stat)+1.08−1.01(syst) times larger than that for inclusive dijet production in dijets with similar kinematics. Individuals have received support from the Marie-Curie program and the European Research Council and Horizon 2020 Grant, Contract No. 675440, No. 724704, No. 752730, and No. 765710 (European Union); CERN; the Programa Estatal de Fomento de la Investigación Científica y Tecnica de Excelencia María de Maeztu, Grant No. MDM-2015-0509 and the Programa Severo Ochoa del Principado de Asturias. CMS Collaboration, TOTEM Collaboration: et al. Funded by SCOAP3. Peer reviewed