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This paper aims to stimulate discussion based on the experiences derived from the QUICS project (Quantifying Uncertainty in Integrated Catchment Studies). First it briefly discusses the current state of knowledge on uncertainties in sub-models of integrated catchment models and the existing frameworks for analysing uncertainty. Furthermore, it compares the relative approaches of both building and calibrating fully integrated models or linking separate sub-models. It also discusses the implications of model linkage on overall uncertainty and how to define an acceptable level of model complexity. This discussion includes, whether we should shift our attention from uncertainties due to linkage, when using linked models, to uncertainties in model structure by necessary simplification or by using more parameters. This discussion attempts to address the question as to whether there is an increase in uncertainty by linking these models or if a compensation effect could take place and that overall uncertainty in key water quality parameters actually decreases. Finally, challenges in the application of uncertainty analysis in integrated catchment water quality modelling, as encountered in this project, are discussed and recommendations for future research areas are highlighted.

This repository provides the code and data for the study "Drivers of Surface Ocean Acidity Extremes in an Earth System Model". The GFDL ESM2M model data is only provided in preprocessed form (see subdirectory 'scripts_used_for_model_data_preprocessing'), because the file size of the raw model output is too large to be uploaded. The preprocessed data is stored in the subdirectory 'data'. To access the raw ESM2M model data, please contact me (friedrich.burger@unibe.ch). The results of the study can be reproduced by running the respective Python scripts in the analysis_scripts subdirectories.

Abstract. Ocean color remote sensing offers two decades-long time series of information on phytoplankton abundance. However, determining the structure of the phytoplankton community from this signal is not straightforward, and many uncertainties remain to be evaluated, despite multiple intercomparison efforts of the different available algorithms. Here, we use remote sensing and machine learning to infer the abundance of seven phytoplankton groups at a global scale based on a new molecular method from Tara Oceans. Our dataset is to our knowledge the most comprehensive and complete, available to describe phytoplankton community structure at a global scale using a molecular marker that defines relative abundances of all phytoplankton groups simultaneously. The methodology shows satisfying performances to provide robust estimates of phytoplankton groups using satellite data, with few limitations regarding the global generalization of the method. Furthermore, this new satellite-based methodology allows a valuable global intercomparison with the pigment-based approach used in in-situ and satellite data to identify phytoplankton groups. Nevertheless, these datasets show different, yet coherent information on the phytoplankton, valuable for the understanding of community structure. This makes remote sensing observations excellent tools to collect Essential Biodiversity Variables and provide a foundation for developing marine biodiversity forecasts.

AbstractA deep-water approximation of the Stokes drift velocity profile is explored as an alternative to the monochromatic profile. The alternative profile investigated relies on the same two quantities required for the monochromatic profile, namely, the Stokes transport and the surface Stokes drift velocity. Comparisons with parametric spectra and profiles under wave spectra from the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) and buoy observations reveal much better agreement than the monochromatic profile even for complex sea states. That the profile gives a closer match and a more correct shear has implications for ocean circulation models since the Coriolis–Stokes force depends on the magnitude and direction of the Stokes drift profile, and Langmuir turbulence parameterizations depend sensitively on the shear of the profile. The alternative profile comes at no added numerical cost compared to the monochromatic profile.

AbstractThe Sahel experienced a severe drought during the 1970s and 1980s after wet periods in the 1950s and 1960s. Although rainfall partially recovered since the 1990s, the drought had devastating impacts on society. Most studies agree that this dry period resulted primarily from remote effects of sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies amplified by local land surface–atmosphere interactions. This paper reviews advances made during the last decade to better understand the impact of global SST variability on West African rainfall at interannual to decadal time scales. At interannual time scales, a warming of the equatorial Atlantic and Pacific/Indian Oceans results in rainfall reduction over the Sahel, and positive SST anomalies over the Mediterranean Sea tend to be associated with increased rainfall. At decadal time scales, warming over the tropics leads to drought over the Sahel, whereas warming over the North Atlantic promotes increased rainfall. Prediction systems have evolved from seasonal to decadal forecasting. The agreement among future projections has improved from CMIP3 to CMIP5, with a general tendency for slightly wetter conditions over the central part of the Sahel, drier conditions over the western part, and a delay in the monsoon onset. The role of the Indian Ocean, the stationarity of teleconnections, the determination of the leader ocean basin in driving decadal variability, the anthropogenic role, the reduction of the model rainfall spread, and the improvement of some model components are among the most important remaining questions that continue to be the focus of current international projects.

The coastal waters of the Maltese Islands, central Mediterranean Sea, sustain a diversity of marine habitats and support a wide range of human activities. The islands’ shallow waters are characterised by a paucity of hydrographic and marine geo-environmental data, which is problematic in view of the requirements of the Maltese Islands to assess the state of their coastal waters by 2012 as part of the EU Marine Strategy Directive. Multibeam echosounder (MBES) systems are today recognised as one of the most effective tools to map the seafloor, although the quantitative characterisation of MBES data for seafloor and habitat mapping is still an underdeveloped field. The purpose of this study is to outline a semi-automated, Geographic Information System-based methodology to map the distribution of habitats in shallow coastal waters using high-resolution MBES data. What distinguishes our methodology from those proposed in previous studies is the combination of a suite of geomorphometric and textural analytical techniques to map specific types of seafloor morphologies and compositions; the selection of the techniques is based on identifying which geophysical parameter would be influenced by the seabed type under consideration. We tested our approach in a 28 km2 area of Maltese coastal waters. Three data sets were collected from this study area: (i) MBES bathymetry and backscatter data; (ii) Remotely Operated Vehicle imagery and (iii) photographs and sediment samples from dive surveys. The seabed was classified into five elementary morphological zones and features – flat and sloping zones, crests, depressions and breaks of slope – using morphometric derivatives, the Bathymetric Position Index and geomorphometric mapping. Segmentation of the study area into seagrass-covered and unvegetated seafloor was based on roughness estimation. Further subdivision of these classes into the four predominant types of composition – medium sand, maerl associated with sand and gravel, seagrass settled on sand and gravel, and seagrass settled on bedrock – was carried out through supervised classifications of morphometric derivatives of the bathymetry and textural indices of backscatter, based on information from training stations. The resulting morphologic and seabed composition maps were combined to plot the distribution of the predominant habitats in the coastal waters offshore NE Malta, some of which are of high conservation value. Ground-truthing of the habitat map using ROV imagery and dive observations confirms that our approach produces a simplified and accurate representation of seafloor habitats while using all the information available within the MBES data sets.