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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/

    This viewpoint note discusses the covid-19 pandemic from the lens of complexity thinking and resilience engineering (RE). It intends to raise questions and encourage critical thinking on the underlying theoretical foundations of the responses adopted so far to cope with the pandemic. Insights arising from this analysis can be useful for the refinement of complexity and RE theory and practice, as well as for the further development of non-medical practices to address the pandemic and its effects.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ ZENODOarrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    ZENODO
    Other ORP type . 2020
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Datacite
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    ZENODO
    Other ORP type . 2020
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: ZENODO
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ ZENODOarrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      ZENODO
      Other ORP type . 2020
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: Datacite
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
      ZENODO
      Other ORP type . 2020
      License: CC BY
      Data sources: ZENODO
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Tárnok, Attila;

    SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic and recurrent dengue epidemics in tropical countries have turned into a global health threat. While both virus‐caused infections may only reveal light symptoms, they can also cause severe diseases. Here, we review the possible antibody‐dependent enhancement (ADE) occurrence, known for dengue infections, when there is a second infection with a different virus strain. Consequently, preexisting antibodies do not neutralize infection, but enhance it, possibly by triggering Fcg receptor‐mediated virus uptake. No clinical data exist indicating such mechanism for SARS‐CoV‐2, but previous coronavirus infections or infection of SARS‐CoV‐2 convalescent with different SARS‐CoV‐2 strains could promote ADE, as experimentally shown for antibodies against the MERS‐CoV or SARS‐CoV spike S protein.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Repositório Instituc...arrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Repositório Instituc...arrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Isadora Garcia Ferrão;

    There is a growing demand for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in the industry since they are being used on a large scale in various fields, such as health, security, military missions, agriculture, etc. These vehicles have the potential to increase productivity and savings. However, the increase in production and use of unmanned aerial vehicles requires improving sound decision-making principles, physical, computational security, and relevant technologies by the computing community. They must continually adapt to carry out missions where they face unpredictable problems. The increase in advanced functionality and the demand for computing capacity exposes these vehicles to different security vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities are growing not only in number but also in sophistication. Researchers and companies have been developing multidisciplinary methodologies and approaches in recent years, trying to solve the most varied protection and safety problems around unmanned aerial vehicles. As in the past, concerns about unmanned aerial vehicles safety were with aggressors and hijackers, now with the domain of civilian application and insertion into the network, circumstances have changed. In this context, this dissertations objective was to advance state-of-the-art through the definition and development of a resilient architecture for unmanned aerial vehicles (STUART - reSilient archiTecture to dynamically manage Unmanned aeriAl vehicle networksundeR atTack) that dynamically manages the network, even when subjected to an attack during a mission, integrating safety and security methods. The architecture is composed of four parts: (1) Anomaly-based detection system, (2) Triage module, (3) Decision-making module, and (4) Resilience module. This dissertation also investigated the incorporation of safety and security as a unified concept in UAV development. The developed architecture was validated by applying specific techniques in each of the parts that compose the architecture. Three tests were performed: one with a real drone and two tests using computer simulation, composed of a base station and a UAV during a vaccine transport mission for COVID-19. The results allow us to conclude that STUART is effective in detecting GPS spoofing. Unlike other architectures found in the literature that focus on specific missions or vulnerabilities, STUART proposes an organizational structure of metrics aggregated for different contexts, ranging from vulnerability detection, filtering false positives, decision-making, and mitigation. Its efficiency has been proven through computational validation using real data from a drone. Na indústria, há uma crescente demanda por veículos aéreos não tripulados, visto que, eles estão sendo usados em larga escala em vários campos, como saúde, segurança, missões militares, agricultura, etc. Esses veículos possuem potencial para aumentar a produtividade e a economia. No entanto, o aumento da produção e utilização desses veículos exigem o aprimoramento de princípios sólidos de tomada de decisão, segurança física, computacional e tecnologias relevantes pela comunidade de computação, pois eles devem continuamente se adaptar para realizar missões onde enfrentam problemas imprevisíveis. O aumento das funcionalidades avançadas e a demanda por capacidade computacional expõe esses veículos a diferentes vulnerabilidades de segurança. Essas vulnerabilidades estão crescendo não apenas em número, mas também em sofisticação. Como no passado as preocupações com a segurança dos VANTs estavam com agressores e sequestradores, agora com o domínio da aplicação civil e inserção na rede, as circunstâncias mudaram. Neste contexto, o objetivo desta dissertação foi avançar o estado da arte através da definição e desenvolvimento de uma arquitetura resiliente para veículos aéreos não tripulados (STUART - reSilient archiTecture to dynamically manage Unmanned aeriAl vehicle networksundeR atTack) que gerencie dinamicamente a rede, mesmo quando submetida a um ataque, integrando métodos de segurança computacional e física. A arquitetura é composta por quadro partes: (1) Sistema de detecção baseado em anomalias, (2) Módulo de triagem, (3) Módulo de tomada de decisão e (4) (5) Módulo de Resiliência. Esta dissertação também investigou a incorporação de segurança física e computacional como um conceito unificado no desenvolvimento de UAVs. A arquitetura desenvolvida foi validada aplicando técnicas específicas em cada uma das partes que compõem a arquitetura. Três testes foram realizados: um com um drone real e dois testes por meio de simulação computacional, compostas por uma estação base e um UAV durante uma missão de transporte de vacinas da COVID-19. Os resultados permitem concluir que a STUART é efetiva na detecção de GPS spoofing e diferentemente de outras arquiteturas encontradas na literatura que focam em missões ou vulnerabilidades específicas, a STUART propõe uma estrutura organizacional de métricas que podem ser agregadas para diferentes contextos e vão desde a detecção de vulnerabilidades, filtragem de falsos-positivos, até a tomada de decisão e mitigação. A sua eficiência foi comprovada através da validação computacional utilizando dados reais de um drone.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Biblioteca Digital d...arrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Biblioteca Digital d...arrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Ian Shinji Ferreira Fukushima;

    Com o objetivo de frear o número de infecções por COVID-19, vários países adotaram regulamentações de distanciamento social, incluindo o fechamento de estabelecimentos não essenciais e restrições de mobilidade. Este artigo estima o impacto dessas regulamentações sobre os crimes contra a propriedade no estado de São Paulo. O impacto é estimado usando um modelo espaço-temporal Bayesiano e é desagregado por microrregiões. A variabilidade espacial do impacto é usada para inferir quais variáveis observadas caracterizam os locais com maior probabilidade de terem sido impactados. Os resultados indicam que a maioria das microrregiões sofreu uma redução nos crimes contra a propriedade e que esses locais são caracterizados por índices de isolamento mais altos e menos recebimento de transferências emergenciais de dinheiro. With the goal of stopping COVID-19 infections, several countries adopted social distancing regulations, including closure of non essential establishments and mobility restrictions. This paper estimates the impact of these regulations on property crime in the state of São Paulo. The impact is estimated using a Bayesian spatiotemporal model, and is disaggregated by microregions. The space variability of the impact is used to infer which observed variables characterize places with higher probability of impact. We found that most microregions experienced a decrease in property crime, and that these places are characterized by higher isolation indices and less receipt of emergency cash transfers.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Biblioteca Digital d...arrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Biblioteca Digital d...arrow_drop_down
      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: Hauke, Jan; Al-Ansi, Abdullah M.; Maitra, Shipra; Zourna, Christina; +20 Authors

    Open peer-reviews on 'National Economic and Health Recovery in the Disruptive Pandemic: A Proposal for Indonesia' (Abraham, Buhaerah, Aji, Onie, & Dalimunthe, 2021; Academia Letters, Article 1345, June 2021). The full article can be accessed via https://ssrn.com/abstract=3899576 and https://doi.org/10.20935/AL1345

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ ZENODOarrow_drop_down
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    ZENODO
    Other ORP type . 2021
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: ZENODO
    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    ZENODO
    Other ORP type . 2021
    License: CC BY
    Data sources: Datacite
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      ZENODO
      Other ORP type . 2021
      License: CC BY
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
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      Other ORP type . 2021
      License: CC BY
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: LEONARDO CAIO DE LADALARDO MARTINS;

    Este estudo explora fontes de dados não convencionais como dados textuais de jornais e pesquisas de internet do Google Trends em dois problemas empíricos: (i) analisar o impacto da mobilidade sobre o número de casos e mortes por Covid-19; (ii) nowcasting do PIB em alta-frequência. O primeiro artigo usa fontes de dados não estruturados como controle para fatores comportamentais não observados e encontra que um aumento na mobilidade residencial diminui significativamente o número de casos e mortes num horizonte de quatro semanas. O segundo artigo usa fontes de dados não estruturadas para fazer um nowcasting semanal do PIB, mostrando que dados textuais e Google Trends pode aumentar a qualidade das projeções (medido pelo EQM, EAM e outras métricas) comparado com as expectativas de mercado do Focus como base. Em ambos casos, dados não estruturados reveleram-se fontes ricas de informação não codificadas em indicadores estruturados convencionais. This study exploits non-conventional data sources such as newspaper textual data and internet searches from Google Trends in two empirical problems: (i) analysing the impacts of mobility on cases and deaths due to Covid-19; (ii) nowcasting GDP in high-frequency. The first paper resorts to unstructured data to control for non-observable behavioural effects and finds that an increase in residential mobility significantly reduces Covid-19 cases and deaths over a 4-week horizon. The second paper uses unstructured data sources to nowcast GDP on a weekly basis, showing that textual data and Google Trends can significantly enhance the quality of nowcasts (measured by MSE, MAE and other metrics) compared to Focus s market expectations as a benchmark. In both cases, unstructured data was revealed to be a valuable source of information not encoded in structured indicators. CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Repositório Instituc...arrow_drop_down
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Repositório Instituc...arrow_drop_down
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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/
    Authors: LUIZA RIBEIRO ALVES CUNHA;

    Pesquisas no campo de Operações Humanitárias (Humanitarian Operations - HO) vem atraindo a atenção de acadêmicos e profissionais ao abranger o estudo de diversas ferramentas analíticas visando a melhora da resposta aos beneficiários. Diferentes estudos sugerem que a inserção de práticas e teorias tradicionais de logística e gestão de operações (Operation management – OM) - incluindo simulação, otimização, probabilidade e estatística - no contexto de desastres beneficiaria a cadeia de suprimentos humanitária. Uma vez que desastres são eventos complexos, graves e dinâmicos, com recursos humanos e materiais limitados, muitos stakeholders envolvidos e alto nível de incerteza de informação, a capacidade de gerir operações se faz necessária. Uma das técnicas mais comumente reconhecidas em OM é a simulação, sendo o método de Dinâmica de Sistemas (System Dynamics – SD) capaz de modelar representações simplificadas de realidades e obter informações valiosas sobre situações de complexidade dinâmica. O método fornece um conjunto de ferramentas, como mapeamento causal e modelagem de simulação, e permite avaliar os resultados de curto e longo prazo de decisões. Nesse contexto, a presente tese visa estudar a complexidade de HO através de SD. Para isso a tese conta com uma revisão sistemática da literatura (Systematic Literature Review – SLR) a fim de identificar o estado da arte, entregando uma taxonomia, um framework e uma agenda de pesquisa. Em seguida, duas operações são apresentadas, demonstrando a modelagem através de SD em contextos humanitários distintos e de alta relevância. A primeira operação estudada consiste na coleta e distribuição de doações para a população na base da pirâmide (Bottom of the Pyramid – BoP) do Rio de Janeiro, em meio a pandemia de COVID19. Realizamos uma survey e obtivemos 2155 respostas dos beneficiários. Os dados também foram obtidos diretamente com as organizações envolvidas na operação. Como resultado, demonstramos que aumentar o acesso a produtos de limpeza nas comunidades por meio de doações pode reduzir significativamente a transmissão do vírus SARS-CoV-2. Ademais, mostramos que as doações de alimentos podem aumentar a capacidade da população vulnerável de arcar com as necessidades, aliviando o estresse causado pela pandemia nesta parcela da população. Ademais, demostramos que quando todas as doações são na forma de vouchers/ dinheiro, a acessibilidade aumenta em 20 por cento em comparação com todas as doações físicas. Resultados que podem servir de base para formuladores de políticas ajudarem as comunidades vulneráveis, especialmente durante crises nas quais os recursos são escassos e devem ser explorados de forma eficiente. O segundo estudo consiste na operação do governo federal Brasileiro para receber, abrigar e interiorizar Venezuelanos no Brasil. Como o fluxo de Venezuelanos para o Brasil tem crescido e as consequências da pandemia se apresentam como uma preocupação com a capacidade da operação, a Operação Acolhida é modelada a fim de entender os gargalos de sua escalabilidade. Como resultado, demonstramos que: (i) o processo de interiorização é um gargalo, pois além da logística, é necessária a inserção socioeconômica dos Venezuelanos (por meio de vagas de emprego, por exemplo); (ii) a capacidade dos abrigos é um gargalo da operação, pois define uma fila de venezuelanos precisando de ajuda esperando para serem abrigados. Research in Humanitarian Operations (HO) has attracted the attention of academics and practitioners by applying analytical tools to improve response to beneficiaries. Different studies suggest that the integration of traditional practices and theories of logistics and operations management (OM) in the complex context of disasters would benefit the humanitarian supply chain. One of the most recognised techniques in OM is simulation, being System Dynamics (SD) a method capable of model simplified representations of realities and gain valuable insights into situations of dynamic complexity. In this context, this thesis aims to analyse the complexity of HO through SD. The thesis presents a systematic literature review (SLR) to identify the state of the art of the subject, delivering a taxonomy, a framework, and a research agenda. Then, two complex and dynamic operations are modelled through SD. The first operation involves collecting and distributing donations to the vulnerable population from Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, amid the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, we demonstrated that: (i) increasing access to cleaning products in communities can significantly reduce COVID-19 transmission; (ii) food donations can increase the population s affordability; (iii) accessibility increases by 20 percent in vouchers/cash donations compared to all in-kind donations. The second one is the Brazilian operation to receive, shelter, and internalise Venezuelans. Since the flow of Venezuelans to Brazil has grown and, the pandemic aftermath presents itself as a concern for the operation capacity, Operation Welcome is modelled to understand the bottlenecks for its scalability. As a result, we demonstrate that: (i) the internalisation process is a bottleneck as, in addition to logistics, it is necessary the socio-economical insertion (through job vacancies, for example); (ii) shelters capacity is an operation bottleneck, as it defines a queue of needing assistance Venezuelans waiting to be sheltered. PROGRAMA DE SUPORTE À PÓS-GRADUAÇÃO DE INSTITUIÇÕES COMUNITÁRIAS DE ENSINO PARTICULARES COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DE PESSOAL DE NÍVEL SUPERIOR/PROJETO COORDENAÇÃO DE APERFEIÇOAMENTO DO PESSOAL DE ENSINO SUPERIOR PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO

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    Authors: Claudia Carranza Chamorro;

    O vírus da bronquite infecciosa das galinhas (IBV) é o agente causador de uma doença aviária economicamente importante. No Brasil, esta doença ocasiona problemas respiratórios, renais e reprodutivos em aves de todas as idades, apesar da vacinação constante com a cepa Massachusetts H120. Esta falha na proteção conferida pela vacina é ocasionada por mutações nos nucleotídeos do gene da glicoproteína da espícula, a qual está envolvida no processo de interação comas células do hospedeiro, a neutralização e a indução de imunidade protetora. As variantes brasileiras resultantes dessa mutação genética estão presentes desde os anos 80 e este estudo teve como objetivo analisar epidemiologicamente e caracterizar molecularmente os vírus variantes existentes durante 2010-2015 e realizar uma análise bioinformática das sequências disponíveis no GenBank em um período de 40 anos. Das 453 amostras analisadas, 61,4% foram positivas para IBV e 75,9% delas foram consideradas variantes e foram detectados em aves de todas as idades, distribuídos em todas as 5 regiões do Brasil. Um fragmento de 559-566 pb foi obtido a partir de 12 isolados, onde BR-I foi a variante predominante ao contrario que apenas um isolado pertencia ao genótipo BR-II. Análise bioinformática de 40 anos de variantes do IBV brasileiros revelou uma predominância de codões com as substituições não sinónimos no primeiro terço do gene S1 e uma relação dN / dS de 0,6757, indicando que esta porção do gene estava sob selecção negativa. Além disso a previsão de pontos de de N-glicosilação mostrou que a maioria das amostras variantes BR-I (entre o 2003 e início de 2014) apresentam um ponto adicional na posição 20, enquanto as variantes mais novas não apresentam esse ponto de nglicosilação. Estes resultados sugerem que as variantes brasileiras teriam sofrido mutações provavelmente drásticas em alguns pontos do genoma, entre os anos de 1983 a 2003 e depois de atingir uma estrutura antigênica eficaz o suficiente para a invasão e replicação em seus hospedeiros, o processo de seleção mudou para seleção negativa. Infectious bronchitis virus (IBV) is the causative agent of an economically important disease of poultry. In Brazil this disease causes respiratory, renal and reproductive problems in birds of all ages, despite constant vaccination with the Massachusetts strain H120. This lack of immunological protection is known to be due the genetic variation in the spike glycoprotein of IBV, which is involved in host cell attachment, neutralization and the induction of protective immunity. Brazilian IBV variants resulting of this genetic variation are present since the 80s and this study aimed to epidemiologicaly analyze and molecularly characterize the existing variants during 2010-2015 and perform a bioinformatics analysis of the available sequences of IBV variants in a 40 year period. Of the 453 samples tested, 61.4% were positive for IBV and 75.9% of them were considered variants and were detected in birds of all ages, distributed in all five Brazilian regions. A fragment of 559-566 bp was obtained from 12 isolates, where BR-I was the predominant variant while only one isolate belonged to the BR-II genotype. Bioinformatics analysis of the sequences of 40 years of Brazilian IBV variants was performed and the ratio of non-synonymous substitutions per non-synonymous site (dn) to synonymous substitutions per synonymous site (ds) dN/dS was calculated. It revealed a predominance of codons with non-synonymous substitutions in the first third of the S1 gene and a dN/dS ratio of 0.6757, indicating that this portion of the gene was under negative selection. Additionally prediction of N-glycosilation sites showed that most of the BR-I variants (from 2003 to early 2014) present an extra site at animoacid position 20, while the newest ones lack this feature.Together these results suggest that IBV Brazilian variants had probably suffered drastic mutations in some points between the years 1983 to 2003 and after achieving an antigenic structure effective enough for invasion and replication in their hosts, the selection processes became silent.

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    Authors: Smith, DRM; Chervet, S; Pinettes, T; Shirreff, G; +6 Authors

    Background Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical models have been widely used to inform public health recommendations regarding COVID-19 control in healthcare settings. Objectives To systematically review SARS-CoV-2 transmission models in healthcare settings, and summarise their contributions to understanding nosocomial COVID-19. Methods Systematic search and review. Data sources Published articles indexed in PubMed. Study eligibility criteria Modelling studies describing dynamic inter-individual transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in healthcare settings, published by mid-February 2022. Participants and interventions Any population and intervention described by included models. Assessment of risk of bias Not appropriate for modelling studies. Methods of data synthesis Structured narrative review. Results Models have mostly focused on acute care and long-term care facilities in high-income countries. Models have quantified outbreak risk across different types of individuals and facilities, showing great variation across settings and pandemic periods. Regarding surveillance, routine testing – rather than symptom-based testing – was highlighted as essential for COVID-19 prevention due to high rates of silent transmission. Surveillance impacts were found to depend critically on testing frequency, diagnostic sensitivity, and turn-around time. Healthcare re-organization was also found to have large epidemiological impacts: beyond obvious benefits of isolating cases and limiting inter-individual contact, more complex strategies such as staggered staff scheduling and immune-based cohorting reduced infection risk. Finally, vaccination impact, while highly effective for limiting COVID-19 burden, varied substantially depending on assumed mechanistic impacts on infection acquisition, symptom onset and transmission. Studies were inconsistent regarding which individuals to prioritize for interventions, probably due to the high diversity of settings and populations investigated. Conclusions Modelling results form an extensive evidence base that may inform control strategies for future waves of SARS-CoV-2 and other viral respiratory pathogens. We propose new avenues for future models of healthcare-associated outbreaks, with the aim of enhancing their efficiency and contributions to decision-making.

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    Oxford University Research Archive
    Other ORP type . 2023
    License: CC BY NC
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      Oxford University Research Archive
      Other ORP type . 2023
      License: CC BY NC
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    Authors: RENATA NAYLOR PAVANELLI BATISTA;

    No Brasil, há uma falta de investimento em tratamentos psicossociais para demência. A Terapia de Estimulação Cognitiva (CST) é uma intervenção psicossocial baseada em evidências para pessoas que vivem com demência (PvcD) que foi adaptada e validada para vários países. Desenvolvida no Reino Unido, a CST envolve 14 sessões que acontecem ao longo de sete semanas. Seu objetivo é melhorar a função cognitiva por meio de atividades em grupo temáticas, que estimulam implicitamente as habilidades, incluindo memória, função executiva e linguagem. As sessões seguem um conjunto de princípios básicos que incluem estimulação mental, novas ideias, pensamentos e associações e opiniões em vez de fatos. Estudos sugerem que a CST pode melhorar a cognição, o humor, a qualidade de vida e as atividades de vida diária em PvcD leve a moderada. No Brasil, um ensaio controlado randomizado (RCT) buscou investigar a viabilidade da CST no país. Os resultados sugerem que aqueles que participaram dos grupos da CST apresentaram melhora significativa nas medidas relativas ao humor e às atividades de vida diária. Devido à pandemia COVID-19, foram feitas adaptações para que a CST pudesse ser oferecida virtualmente (vCST). O primeiro estudo foi realizado juntamente com o RCT para acessar a perspectiva dos participantes do grupo e explorar os efeitos da CST. Foram realizadas entrevistas individuais semiestruturadas com as PvcD que participaram dos grupos e seus cuidadores (n = 23). As transcrições das entrevistas foram analisadas por meio da Framework Analysis. A partir da análise, dois temas gerais, Benefícios pessoais de fazer parte do grupo e Mudanças na vida diária e sete subtemas, Benefícios para cuidadores, Benefícios para pessoas com demência, Memória, Sociabilidade, Linguagem, Humor, Orientação, Atividades cotidianas e Sintomas comportamentais e psicológicos. Os resultados indicam que a CST traz benefícios pessoais percebidos às PvcD e aos cuidadores, e há muitas melhorias percebidas, que são consistentes com achados qualitativos anteriores e apoiadas por achados empíricos de ensaios da CST. O segundo estudo teve como objetivo acessar a experiência e as perspectivas das PvcD que participaram de grupos da vCST e seus cuidadores (n =25), durante a pandemia do COVID-19. As informações qualitativas que surgiram da análise serão comparadas com dados quantitativos para entender a eficácia e a viabilidade do vCST. As transcrições das entrevistas foram analisadas por meio daFramework Analysis. A partir da análise, dois temas gerais, Benefícios pessoais defazer parte do grupo e Design da vCST e 12 subtemas, Prazer, Estimulação mental, Estimulação contínua, Ocupação, Cognição, Humor, Sociabilidade, On-line, Duração, Estrutura de sessões, Centrada na pessoa e Baseada em evidências. Os achados indicam que a VCST levou a melhorias percebidas para a PvcD e trouxe benefícios pessoais para aqueles que participaram dos grupos. Resultados semelhantes são encontrados em estudos da CST, que sugerem que a vCST é viável, como a intervenção presencial. In Brazil, there is a lack of investment in psychosocial treatments for dementia. Cognitive Stimulation Therapy (CST) is an evidence-based psychosocial intervention for people living with dementia (PlwD) that has been adapted and validated to several countries. Developed in the UK, it involves 14 sessions over seven weeks. It aims to improve cognitive function through themed group activities, which implicitly stimulate skills including memory, executive function and language. Sessions follow a set of guiding principles which include mental stimulation, new ideas, thoughts and associations and opinions rather than facts. Studies suggest that CST can improve cognition, mood, quality of life and activities of daily living in mild to moderate dementia. In Brazil, a randomized controlled trial (RCT) sought to investigate the feasibility of CST in the country. The results suggest that those who took part in the CST groups had a significant improvement in measures relative to mood and activities of daily living. Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, adaptations were made for virtual delivery, and virtual CST (vCST) groups are being conducted. The first study was conducted alongside the randomized RCT to explore the real-life effectiveness of CST and to access the perspective of group participants. Individual semi-structured interviews were applied to PlwD who took part in the groups and their care partners (n = 23). The transcripts of interviews were analysed using Framework Analysis. From the analysis, two general themes, Personal benefits of being part of the group and Changes to daily living and 7 subthemes, Benefits for caregivers, Benefits por people with dementia, Memory, Sociability, Language, Mood, Orientation, Everyday activities and Behavioural and psychological symptoms have emerged. Results indicate that CST brings perceived personal benefits to PlwD and caregivers, and there are many perceived improvements, which are consistent with previous qualitative findings and supported by empirical findings from CST trials. The second study aimed to access the experience and perspectives of Plwd who have participated in vCST groups and their care partners (n = 25), during the COVID-19 pandemic. Qualitative information that has emerged from the analysis will be compared with quantitative data to understand the effectiveness and feasibility of vCST. The transcripts of interviews were analysed using Framework Analysis. From the analysis, two general themes, Personal benefits of being part of the group and Design of vCST and 12 subthemes, Enjoyment, Mental stimulation, Continued stimulation, Occupation, Cognition, Mood, Sociability, Online, Duration, Structure of sessions, Person-centred and Evidence-based have emerged. The findings indicate that vCST led to perceived improvements for PlwD and personal benefits for those who took part in the groups. Similar results are found in CST studies, which suggest that vCST is viable as studies have suggested with the face-to-face intervention. CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO

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  • image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/

    This viewpoint note discusses the covid-19 pandemic from the lens of complexity thinking and resilience engineering (RE). It intends to raise questions and encourage critical thinking on the underlying theoretical foundations of the responses adopted so far to cope with the pandemic. Insights arising from this analysis can be useful for the refinement of complexity and RE theory and practice, as well as for the further development of non-medical practices to address the pandemic and its effects.

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    Other ORP type . 2020
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    Other ORP type . 2020
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    Authors: Tárnok, Attila;

    SARS‐CoV‐2 pandemic and recurrent dengue epidemics in tropical countries have turned into a global health threat. While both virus‐caused infections may only reveal light symptoms, they can also cause severe diseases. Here, we review the possible antibody‐dependent enhancement (ADE) occurrence, known for dengue infections, when there is a second infection with a different virus strain. Consequently, preexisting antibodies do not neutralize infection, but enhance it, possibly by triggering Fcg receptor‐mediated virus uptake. No clinical data exist indicating such mechanism for SARS‐CoV‐2, but previous coronavirus infections or infection of SARS‐CoV‐2 convalescent with different SARS‐CoV‐2 strains could promote ADE, as experimentally shown for antibodies against the MERS‐CoV or SARS‐CoV spike S protein.

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    Authors: Isadora Garcia Ferrão;

    There is a growing demand for unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV) in the industry since they are being used on a large scale in various fields, such as health, security, military missions, agriculture, etc. These vehicles have the potential to increase productivity and savings. However, the increase in production and use of unmanned aerial vehicles requires improving sound decision-making principles, physical, computational security, and relevant technologies by the computing community. They must continually adapt to carry out missions where they face unpredictable problems. The increase in advanced functionality and the demand for computing capacity exposes these vehicles to different security vulnerabilities. These vulnerabilities are growing not only in number but also in sophistication. Researchers and companies have been developing multidisciplinary methodologies and approaches in recent years, trying to solve the most varied protection and safety problems around unmanned aerial vehicles. As in the past, concerns about unmanned aerial vehicles safety were with aggressors and hijackers, now with the domain of civilian application and insertion into the network, circumstances have changed. In this context, this dissertations objective was to advance state-of-the-art through the definition and development of a resilient architecture for unmanned aerial vehicles (STUART - reSilient archiTecture to dynamically manage Unmanned aeriAl vehicle networksundeR atTack) that dynamically manages the network, even when subjected to an attack during a mission, integrating safety and security methods. The architecture is composed of four parts: (1) Anomaly-based detection system, (2) Triage module, (3) Decision-making module, and (4) Resilience module. This dissertation also investigated the incorporation of safety and security as a unified concept in UAV development. The developed architecture was validated by applying specific techniques in each of the parts that compose the architecture. Three tests were performed: one with a real drone and two tests using computer simulation, composed of a base station and a UAV during a vaccine transport mission for COVID-19. The results allow us to conclude that STUART is effective in detecting GPS spoofing. Unlike other architectures found in the literature that focus on specific missions or vulnerabilities, STUART proposes an organizational structure of metrics aggregated for different contexts, ranging from vulnerability detection, filtering false positives, decision-making, and mitigation. Its efficiency has been proven through computational validation using real data from a drone. Na indústria, há uma crescente demanda por veículos aéreos não tripulados, visto que, eles estão sendo usados em larga escala em vários campos, como saúde, segurança, missões militares, agricultura, etc. Esses veículos possuem potencial para aumentar a produtividade e a economia. No entanto, o aumento da produção e utilização desses veículos exigem o aprimoramento de princípios sólidos de tomada de decisão, segurança física, computacional e tecnologias relevantes pela comunidade de computação, pois eles devem continuamente se adaptar para realizar missões onde enfrentam problemas imprevisíveis. O aumento das funcionalidades avançadas e a demanda por capacidade computacional expõe esses veículos a diferentes vulnerabilidades de segurança. Essas vulnerabilidades estão crescendo não apenas em número, mas também em sofisticação. Como no passado as preocupações com a segurança dos VANTs estavam com agressores e sequestradores, agora com o domínio da aplicação civil e inserção na rede, as circunstâncias mudaram. Neste contexto, o objetivo desta dissertação foi avançar o estado da arte através da definição e desenvolvimento de uma arquitetura resiliente para veículos aéreos não tripulados (STUART - reSilient archiTecture to dynamically manage Unmanned aeriAl vehicle networksundeR atTack) que gerencie dinamicamente a rede, mesmo quando submetida a um ataque, integrando métodos de segurança computacional e física. A arquitetura é composta por quadro partes: (1) Sistema de detecção baseado em anomalias, (2) Módulo de triagem, (3) Módulo de tomada de decisão e (4) (5) Módulo de Resiliência. Esta dissertação também investigou a incorporação de segurança física e computacional como um conceito unificado no desenvolvimento de UAVs. A arquitetura desenvolvida foi validada aplicando técnicas específicas em cada uma das partes que compõem a arquitetura. Três testes foram realizados: um com um drone real e dois testes por meio de simulação computacional, compostas por uma estação base e um UAV durante uma missão de transporte de vacinas da COVID-19. Os resultados permitem concluir que a STUART é efetiva na detecção de GPS spoofing e diferentemente de outras arquiteturas encontradas na literatura que focam em missões ou vulnerabilidades específicas, a STUART propõe uma estrutura organizacional de métricas que podem ser agregadas para diferentes contextos e vão desde a detecção de vulnerabilidades, filtragem de falsos-positivos, até a tomada de decisão e mitigação. A sua eficiência foi comprovada através da validação computacional utilizando dados reais de um drone.

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    Authors: Ian Shinji Ferreira Fukushima;

    Com o objetivo de frear o número de infecções por COVID-19, vários países adotaram regulamentações de distanciamento social, incluindo o fechamento de estabelecimentos não essenciais e restrições de mobilidade. Este artigo estima o impacto dessas regulamentações sobre os crimes contra a propriedade no estado de São Paulo. O impacto é estimado usando um modelo espaço-temporal Bayesiano e é desagregado por microrregiões. A variabilidade espacial do impacto é usada para inferir quais variáveis observadas caracterizam os locais com maior probabilidade de terem sido impactados. Os resultados indicam que a maioria das microrregiões sofreu uma redução nos crimes contra a propriedade e que esses locais são caracterizados por índices de isolamento mais altos e menos recebimento de transferências emergenciais de dinheiro. With the goal of stopping COVID-19 infections, several countries adopted social distancing regulations, including closure of non essential establishments and mobility restrictions. This paper estimates the impact of these regulations on property crime in the state of São Paulo. The impact is estimated using a Bayesian spatiotemporal model, and is disaggregated by microregions. The space variability of the impact is used to infer which observed variables characterize places with higher probability of impact. We found that most microregions experienced a decrease in property crime, and that these places are characterized by higher isolation indices and less receipt of emergency cash transfers.

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    Authors: Hauke, Jan; Al-Ansi, Abdullah M.; Maitra, Shipra; Zourna, Christina; +20 Authors

    Open peer-reviews on 'National Economic and Health Recovery in the Disruptive Pandemic: A Proposal for Indonesia' (Abraham, Buhaerah, Aji, Onie, & Dalimunthe, 2021; Academia Letters, Article 1345, June 2021). The full article can be accessed via https://ssrn.com/abstract=3899576 and https://doi.org/10.20935/AL1345

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    Other ORP type . 2021
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    Authors: LEONARDO CAIO DE LADALARDO MARTINS;

    Este estudo explora fontes de dados não convencionais como dados textuais de jornais e pesquisas de internet do Google Trends em dois problemas empíricos: (i) analisar o impacto da mobilidade sobre o número de casos e mortes por Covid-19; (ii) nowcasting do PIB em alta-frequência. O primeiro artigo usa fontes de dados não estruturados como controle para fatores comportamentais não observados e encontra que um aumento na mobilidade residencial diminui significativamente o número de casos e mortes num horizonte de quatro semanas. O segundo artigo usa fontes de dados não estruturadas para fazer um nowcasting semanal do PIB, mostrando que dados textuais e Google Trends pode aumentar a qualidade das projeções (medido pelo EQM, EAM e outras métricas) comparado com as expectativas de mercado do Focus como base. Em ambos casos, dados não estruturados reveleram-se fontes ricas de informação não codificadas em indicadores estruturados convencionais. This study exploits non-conventional data sources such as newspaper textual data and internet searches from Google Trends in two empirical problems: (i) analysing the impacts of mobility on cases and deaths due to Covid-19; (ii) nowcasting GDP in high-frequency. The first paper resorts to unstructured data to control for non-observable behavioural effects and finds that an increase in residential mobility significantly reduces Covid-19 cases and deaths over a 4-week horizon. The second paper uses unstructured data sources to nowcast GDP on a weekly basis, showing that textual data and Google Trends can significantly enhance the quality of nowcasts (measured by MSE, MAE and other metrics) compared to Focus s market expectations as a benchmark. In both cases, unstructured data was revealed to be a valuable source of information not encoded in structured indicators. CONSELHO NACIONAL DE DESENVOLVIMENTO CIENTÍFICO E TECNOLÓGICO PONTIFÍCIA UNIVERSIDADE CATÓLICA DO RIO DE JANEIRO

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