India has witnessed a remarkable catch-up by the historically disadvantaged scheduled castes and tribes (SC/STs) towards non-SC/ST levels in their education attainment levels, occupation choices as well as wages during the period 1983-2012. Using a heterogenous agent, multi-sector model we show that sectoral productivity growth during this period can explain 75 percent of the observed wage convergence between the castes. Inter-sectoral net flows of workers are key as they account for 3/4 of the predicted convergence. Absent these net flows, the caste wage gaps would have marginally widened. Selection effects, while present in these net flows, account for just a quarter of the predicted wage convergence. We also find that affirmative action policies that reduced skilling costs for SC/STs may have reduced the levels of the caste wage gaps at all times but played a limited role in accounting for the dynamics of the wage gap. Growth was key for the dynamic wage convergence.
The study analyzes the relationship of personal income tax and economic growth in the long and short runs to show which type of income tax (progressive or proportional) is more compatible with Bulgaria’s economic growth. The methods of Vector Error Correction and Correlation are applied to determine the long-run and short-run impacts of the two types of income tax. The research covers the period from the first quarter of 1999 to the first quarter of 2020. Eurostat data (85 observations) were used. The empirical research has been divided into two periods. The long-run and short-run relationships between economic growth and tax revenue from progressive income tax in Bulgaria have first been studied, followed by the relationship between economic growth and the tax revenue from proportional income tax. The research results show that there is a long-run equilibrium relationship, but not a short-run relationship, between personal income tax and economic growth. The results imply that the progressive income tax is more compatible with economic growth than proportional income tax in Bulgaria in the long run. In the short run, the progressive income tax and proportional income tax have not shown statistically significant relationships with economic growth. Therefore, a progressive income tax leads to greater economic growth than a proportional income tax. From a long-run equilibrium standpoint, it is advisable that Bulgaria switch from proportional to progressive income taxation. It may be inferred that progressive taxation is more appropriate for economic growth than proportional taxation. The results are in conformity with the theory of endogenic growth and reject the neoclassical theory. For citation Tanchev S. Long-run equilibrium between personal income tax and economic growth in Bulgaria. Journal of Tax Reform. 2021;7(1):55–67. DOI: 10.15826/jtr.2021.7.1.090 Article info Received February 8, 2021; Revised March 2, 2021; Accepted April 8, 2021
Abstract Motivating with two scenarios in which the government spending in China timely reacted to output shock within a quarter, this letter points out a downward bias in the estimation of Chinese government spending multiplier using the classical lag restriction for shock identification in a quarterly SVAR framework a la Blanchard and Perotti (2002) . By relaxing the lag-length restriction from one quarter to one month, we propose a mixed-frequency identification (MFI) strategy by taking the unexpected spending change in the first month of each quarter as an instrument. The estimation results show that the Chinese government significantly reacts to output shock counter-cyclically within a quarter, with the resulting government spending multiplier being 0.546 on impact and 1.849 at the maximum. A comparison study confirms that results based on the identification strategy of Blanchard and Perotti (2002) suffer severe downward bias in such a case.
Abstract We study the responses of Chinese public firm chairpersons to their perceptions of bad luck pertaining to the Chinese zodiac year. We find that these perceptions of bad luck increase managers' sense of risk and lead them to increase their corporate cash holdings, even though the actual underlying risk remains unchanged. The effect is temporary and begins at the end of the quarter prior to the commencement of the zodiac year. When the zodiac year has passed, the level of risk perceived decreases and the bias disappears. The distortion between perceived and actual risk is significant, and the increase in cash holdings is both suboptimal and inefficient, in our view. Overall, these managerial reactions to the zodiac year are consistent with theories about belief in luck.
Abstract This study uses fintech approaches, including web crawler technology with distributed architecture to select internet news messages largely and efficiently and a dictionary-based linguistic text mining to create sentiment variables, to explore the respective impacts of investors' optimism and pessimism on stock returns. The construction of sentiment variables in network- and dictionary-based messages is more precise and variable than that in traditional-based messages. Our results show that firms with investors' optimistic sentiments have significantly higher stock returns in the current month, whereas those with pessimistic sentiments have significantly opposite effects. The effect of both investors' optimism and pessimism on stock returns subsequently reverses. Then, the negative impacts of investors' largely pessimistic sentiments on stock returns are larger than the positive impacts of their largely optimistic sentiments within a quarter. Next, investors' optimistic sentiments significantly raise stock return volatility by approximately a quarter, but their pessimistic sentiments have the opposite effects. Furthermore, investors' high optimism more significantly and persistently raises stock return volatility than their general optimism, but the negative effects of their high pessimism on volatility become smaller and the persistence is shorter than general pessimism. In addition to the advantage of our methodology in creating sentiment variables, the simultaneous consideration of investors' optimism and pessimism to analyze the effects on the returns and the volatility of individual stocks in this study is more complete than previous related studies.
Abstract In 2020, the COVID-19 has a certain impact on the credit risk of China’s listed of insurance companies. This paper selects relevant data of four China’s listed insurance companies from the first quarter of 2019 to the third quarter of 2020, and then uses revised KMV model to measure the credit risk of these four insurance companies. The empirical results show that in the season of the outbreak, the default distance of China’s listed insurance companies has decreased to varying degrees, indicating that the epidemic has caused a temporary increase in the credit risk of the insurance industry.
Abstract This paper explores how financial intermediation costs affect occupational choices, using a model with employers, own-account workers, and wage workers. An intermediation cost drives a wedge between the return on saving and the cost of borrowing that increases the cost of borrowing, reduces the return on saving, and depresses the wage rate. As a novel channel in this paper, a lower return on saving induces agents to seek self-employment to manage their wealth. Quantitatively, the observed variation in the intermediation cost explains about a quarter of cross-country differences in the share of own-account workers. In terms of policy implications, these findings suggest that governments should increase the efficiency of financial intermediation and provide households with better saving opportunities.
Strong evidence now demonstrates that recognition and response systems using standardised early warning scores can help prevent harm associated with in-hospital clinical deterioration in non-pregnant adult patients. However, a standardised maternity-specific early warning system has not yet been agreed in the UK. In Aotearoa New Zealand, following the nationwide implementation of the standardised New Zealand Early Warning Score (NZEWS) for adult inpatients, a modified maternity-specific variation (NZMEWS) was piloted in a major tertiary hospital in Auckland, before national rollout. Following implementation in July 2018, we observed a significant and sustained reduction in severe maternal morbidity as measured by emergency response calls to women who were very unwell (emergency response team call), and a non-significant reduction in cardiorespiratory arrest team calls. Emergency response team calls to maternity wards fell from a median of 0.8 per 100 births at baseline (January 2017-May 2018) to 0.6 per 100 births monthly (from March 2019 to December 2020) (p < 0.0001). Cardiorespiratory arrest team calls to maternity wards fell from 0.14 per 100 births per quarter (quarter 1 2017-quarter 2 2018) to 0.09 calls per 100 births per quarter after NZMEWS was introduced (quarter 3 2018-quarter 4 2020) (p = 0.2593). These early results provide evidence that NZMEWS can detect and prevent deterioration of pregnant women, although there are multiple factors that may have contributed to the reduction in emergency response calls noted.