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[Blue-Action] Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate (727852)
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    Authors: Marilena Oltmanns; N. Penny Holliday; James Screen; Ben I. Moat; +3 Authors

    Abstract. Amplified Arctic ice loss in recent decades has been linked to the increased occurrence of extreme mid-latitude weather. The underlying mechanisms remain elusive, however. One potential link occurs through the ocean as the loss of sea ice and glacial ice leads to increased freshwater fluxes into the ocean. Thus, in this study, we examine the link between North Atlantic freshwater anomalies and European summer weather. Combining a comprehensive set of observational products, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies are associated with a sharper sea surface temperature front between the subpolar and the subtropical North Atlantic in winter, an increased atmospheric instability above the sea surface temperature front, and a large-scale atmospheric circulation that induces a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current, strengthening the sea surface temperature front. In the following summer, the lower-tropospheric winds are deflected northward along the enhanced sea surface temperature front and the European coastline, forming part of a large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly that is associated with warmer and drier weather over Europe. The identified statistical links are significant on timescales from years to decades and indicate an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance, with the exact regions and amplitudes of the warm and dry weather anomalies over Europe being sensitive to the location, strength, and extent of North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in the preceding winter.

    image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ NERC Open Research A...arrow_drop_down
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    Weather and Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2024
    Data sources: DOAJ
    Copernicus Publications
    Other literature type . 2024
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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ NERC Open Research A...arrow_drop_down
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      Weather and Climate Dynamics
      Article . 2024
      Data sources: DOAJ
      Copernicus Publications
      Other literature type . 2024
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    Authors: Jennifer V. Mecking; Sybren S. Drijfhout;

    AbstractThe ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes and south of 10° S. Most notably, the CMIP5/6 multimodel mean reduction in poleward OHT for the Atlantic at 26.5° N and Indo-Pacific at 20° S is 0.093–0.304 PW and 0.097–0.194 PW, respectively, dependent on scenario and CMIP phase. These changes in OHT are driven by decline in overturning circulation dampened by upper ocean warming. In the Southern Ocean, the reduction in poleward OHT at 55° S is 0.071–0.268 PW. The projected changes are stronger in CMIP6, even when corrected for its larger climate sensitivity. This is especially noticable in the Atlantic Ocean for the weaker forcing scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP 1-2.6/representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6), where the decrease is 2.5 times larger at 26.5° N due to a stronger decline in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

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  • Authors: Bogi Hansen;
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    Authors: Yao Fu; M. Susan Lozier; Tiago Carrilho Biló; Amy S. Bower; +22 Authors

    Subpolar overturning in the North Atlantic Ocean shows substantial seasonality, with a maximum in late spring, a minimum in early winter, and a total range of about 9 Sv, according to observations from the OSNAP array between 2014 and 2020. Understanding the variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation is essential for better predictions of our changing climate. Here we present an updated time series (August 2014 to June 2020) from the Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program. The 6-year time series allows us to observe the seasonality of the subpolar overturning and meridional heat and freshwater transports. The overturning peaks in late spring and reaches a minimum in early winter, with a peak-to-trough range of 9.0 Sv. The overturning seasonal timing can be explained by winter transformation and the export of dense water, modulated by a seasonally varying Ekman transport. Furthermore, over 55% of the total meridional freshwater transport variability can be explained by its seasonality, largely owing to overturning dynamics. Our results provide the first observational analysis of seasonality in the subpolar North Atlantic overturning and highlight its important contribution to the total overturning variability observed to date.

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    NIOZ Repository
    Article . 2023
    Data sources: NIOZ Repository
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      NIOZ Repository
      Article . 2023
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    Authors: Rohit Ghosh; Elisa Manzini; Yongqi Gao; Guillaume Gastineau; +10 Authors

    Abstract The observed winter Barents-Kara Sea (BKS) sea ice concentration (SIC) has shown a close association with the second empirical orthogonal function (EOF) mode of Eurasian winter surface air temperature (SAT) variability, known as Warm Arctic Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. However, the potential role of BKS SIC on this WACE pattern of variability and on its long-term trend remains elusive. Here, we show that from 1979 to 2022, the winter BKS SIC and WACE association is most prominent and statistically significant for the variability at the sub-decadal time scale for 5–6 years. We also show the critical role of the multi-decadal trend in the principal component of the WACE mode of variability for explaining the overall Eurasian winter temperature trend over the same period. Furthermore, a large multi-model ensemble of atmosphere-only experiments from 1979 to 2014, with and without the observed Arctic SIC forcing, suggests that the BKS SIC variations induce this observed sub-decadal variability and the multi-decadal trend in the WACE. Additionally, we analyse the model simulated first or the leading EOF mode of Eurasian winter SAT variability, which in observations, closely relates to the Arctic Oscillation (AO). We find a weaker association of this mode to AO and a statistically significant positive trend in our ensemble simulation, opposite to that found in observation. This contrasting nature reflects excessive hemispheric warming in the models, partly contributed by the modelled Arctic Sea ice loss. International audience

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    HAL-CEA; HAL-IRD
    Article . 2024
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2024
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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2024
    License: CC BY
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    https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
    Preprint . 2023
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    Environmental Research Letters
    Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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    Environmental Research Letters
    Article . 2024
    Data sources: DOAJ
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      Article . 2024
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      https://doi.org/10.21203/rs.3....
      Preprint . 2023
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      Environmental Research Letters
      Article . 2024 . Peer-reviewed
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      Environmental Research Letters
      Article . 2024
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  • Authors: Marilena Oltmanns;
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    Authors: Bogi Hansen; Karin Margretha Húsgarð Larsen; Hjálmar Hátún; Steffen Malskær Olsen; +3 Authors

    The inflow of warm and saline Atlantic water to the Arctic Mediterranean (Nordic Seas and Arctic Ocean) between Iceland and the Faroes (IF inflow) is the strongest Atlantic inflow branch in terms of volume transport and is associated with a large transport of heat towards the Arctic. The IF inflow is monitored in a section east of the Iceland–Faroe Ridge (IFR) by use of sea level anomaly (SLA) data from satellite altimetry, a method that has been calibrated by in situ observations gathered over 2 decades. Monthly averaged surface velocity anomalies calculated from SLA data were strongly correlated with anomalies measured by moored acoustic Doppler current profilers (ADCPs) with consistently higher correlations when using the reprocessed SLA data released in December 2021 rather than the earlier version. In contrast to the earlier version, the reprocessed data also had the correct conversion factor between sea level slope and surface velocity required by geostrophy. Our results show that the IF inflow crosses the IFR in two separate branches. The Icelandic branch is a jet over the Icelandic slope with average surface speed exceeding 20 cm s−1, but it is narrow and shallow with an average volume transport of less than 1 Sv (106 m3 s−1). Most of the Atlantic water crosses the IFR close to its southernmost end in the Faroese branch. Between these two branches, water from the Icelandic branch turns back onto the ridge in a retroflection with a recirculation over the northernmost bank on the IFR. Combining multi-sensor in situ observations with satellite SLA data, monthly mean volume transport of the IF inflow has been determined from January 1993 to December 2021. The IF inflow is part of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), which is expected to weaken under continued global warming. Our results show no weakening of the IF inflow. Annually averaged volume transport of Atlantic water through the monitoring section had a statistically significant (95 % confidence level) increasing trend of (0.12±0.10) Sv per decade. Combined with increasing temperature, this caused an increase of 13 % in the heat transport, relative to 0 ∘C, towards the Arctic of the IF inflow over the 29 years of monitoring. The near-bottom layer over most of the IFR is dominated by cold water of Arctic origin that may contribute to the overflow across the ridge. Our observations confirm a dynamic link between the overflow and the Atlantic water flow above. The results also provide support for a previously posed hypothesis that this link may explain the difficulties in reproducing observed transport variations in the IF inflow in numerical ocean models, with consequences for its predictability under climate change.

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    https://doi.org/10.5194/egusph...
    Preprint . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Copernicus Publications
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/egusph...
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      Copernicus Publications
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    Authors: Rohit Ghosh; Dian Putrasahan; Elisa Manzini; Katja Lohmann; +5 Authors

    Abstract The North Atlantic subpolar gyre (SPG) plays a crucial role in determining the regional ocean surface temperature (SST), which has profound implications on the surrounding continental and coastal climate. Here, we analyze the Max Planck Institute-Grand Ensemble global warming experiments and show that the SPG can evolve in two distinct phases under continuous global warming. In the first phase, as the global mean surface temperature approaches 2-K warming, the eastern SPG intensifies in combination with a weakening Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), accompanied by a cooling of subpolar North Atlantic SST, known as the warming hole. The associated oceanic fingerprint matches with the observations over the last 15 years, where an intensification and cooling of the eastern SPG is related to salinity reduction at the eastern side of the SPG. However, for further warming beyond 2 K, in spite of a continuous decline in the AMOC, a northward shift of the mean zonal wind extends the subtropical gyre northward with an associated disruption of the eastern SPG intensification, resulting in the cessation of the warming hole. Therefore, a shift from the initially dominating oceanic drivers to the atmospheric driver results into a two-phase evolution of the North Atlantic Ocean SPG circulation and the associated SST under continuous global warming.

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    MPG.PuRe
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    MPG.PuRe
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    Journal of Climate
    Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      MPG.PuRe
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      Journal of Climate
      Article . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Marilena Oltmanns; N. Penny Holliday; James Screen; Ben I. Moat; +3 Authors

    Abstract. Amplified Arctic ice loss in recent decades has been linked to increased occurrence of extreme mid-latitude weather. The underlying mechanisms remain elusive, however. One potential link occurs through the ocean as the loss of sea ice and glacial ice leads to increased freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic. Thus, in this study, we examine the extent to which North Atlantic freshwater anomalies constrain the subsequent ocean-atmosphere evolution and assess their implications for European summer weather. Combining remote sensing, atmospheric reanalyses and model simulations, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies are associated with sharper sea surface temperature gradients over the North Atlantic in winter, destabilising the overlying atmosphere and inducing a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current. In turn, the jet stream over the North Atlantic is deflected northward in the following summers, leading to warmer and drier weather over Europe. Our results suggest that growing freshwater fluxes into the North Atlantic will increase the risk of heat waves and droughts over the coming decades, and could yield enhanced predictability of European summer weather, months to years in advance.

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    Copernicus Publications
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    https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-20...
    Preprint . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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      https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-20...
      Preprint . 2023 . Peer-reviewed
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    Authors: Lingling Suo; Yongqi Gao; Guillaume Gastineau; Yu‐Chiao Liang; +7 Authors

    AbstractDuring the past decades, the Arctic has experienced significant tropospheric warming, with varying decadal warming rates. However, the relative contributions from potential drivers and modulators of the warming are yet to be further quantified. Here, we utilize a unique set of multi‐model large‐ensemble atmospheric simulations to isolate the respective contributions from the combined external radiative forcing (ERF‐AL), interdecadal Pacific variability (IPV), Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV), and Arctic sea‐ice concentration changes (ASIC) to the warming during 1979–2013. In this study, the ERF‐AL impacts are the ERF impacts directly on the atmosphere and land surface, excluding the indirect effects through SST and SIC feedback. The ERF‐AL is the primary driver of the April–September tropospheric warming during 1979–2013, and its warming effects vary at decadal time scales. The IPV and AMV intensify the warming during their transitioning periods to positive phases and dampen the warming during their transitioning periods to negative phases. The IPV impacts are prominent in winter and spring and are stronger than AMV impacts on 1979–2013 temperature trends. The warming impacts of ASIC are generally restricted to below 700 hPa and are strongest in autumn and winter. The combined effects of these factors reproduce the observed accelerated and step‐down Arctic warming in different decades, but the intensities of the reproduced decadal variations are generally weaker than in the observed.

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    MPG.PuRe
    Article . 2022
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    NORCE Research Archive
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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    Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres
    Article . 2022 . Peer-reviewed
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[Blue-Action] Arctic Impact on Weather and Climate (727852)
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    Authors: Marilena Oltmanns; N. Penny Holliday; James Screen; Ben I. Moat; +3 Authors

    Abstract. Amplified Arctic ice loss in recent decades has been linked to the increased occurrence of extreme mid-latitude weather. The underlying mechanisms remain elusive, however. One potential link occurs through the ocean as the loss of sea ice and glacial ice leads to increased freshwater fluxes into the ocean. Thus, in this study, we examine the link between North Atlantic freshwater anomalies and European summer weather. Combining a comprehensive set of observational products, we show that stronger freshwater anomalies are associated with a sharper sea surface temperature front between the subpolar and the subtropical North Atlantic in winter, an increased atmospheric instability above the sea surface temperature front, and a large-scale atmospheric circulation that induces a northward shift in the North Atlantic Current, strengthening the sea surface temperature front. In the following summer, the lower-tropospheric winds are deflected northward along the enhanced sea surface temperature front and the European coastline, forming part of a large-scale atmospheric circulation anomaly that is associated with warmer and drier weather over Europe. The identified statistical links are significant on timescales from years to decades and indicate an enhanced predictability of European summer weather at least a winter in advance, with the exact regions and amplitudes of the warm and dry weather anomalies over Europe being sensitive to the location, strength, and extent of North Atlantic freshwater anomalies in the preceding winter.

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    Weather and Climate Dynamics
    Article . 2024
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      Weather and Climate Dynamics
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    Authors: Jennifer V. Mecking; Sybren S. Drijfhout;

    AbstractThe ocean is taking up additional heat but how this affects ocean circulation and heat transport is unclear. Here, using coupled model intercomparison project phase 5/6 (CMIP5/6) climate projections, we show a future decrease in poleward ocean heat transport (OHT) across all Northern Hemisphere latitudes and south of 10° S. Most notably, the CMIP5/6 multimodel mean reduction in poleward OHT for the Atlantic at 26.5° N and Indo-Pacific at 20° S is 0.093–0.304 PW and 0.097–0.194 PW, respectively, dependent on scenario and CMIP phase. These changes in OHT are driven by decline in overturning circulation dampened by upper ocean warming. In the Southern Ocean, the reduction in poleward OHT at 55° S is 0.071–0.268 PW. The projected changes are stronger in CMIP6, even when corrected for its larger climate sensitivity. This is especially noticable in the Atlantic Ocean for the weaker forcing scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathway SSP 1-2.6/representative concentration pathways RCP 2.6), where the decrease is 2.5 times larger at 26.5° N due to a stronger decline in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation.

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      image/svg+xml art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos Open Access logo, converted into svg, designed by PLoS. This version with transparent background. http://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Open_Access_logo_PLoS_white.svg art designer at PLoS, modified by Wikipedia users Nina, Beao, JakobVoss, and AnonMoos http://www.plos.org/ Nature Climate Chang...arrow_drop_down
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